NFL Week 13 Predictions, Picks Against the Spread

We’ve been on a hell of run lately.  From the last Sunday night through the Friday after Thanksgiving, we were on an 11-0 run. We took some losses on Saturday due to some bad beats (Georgie Tech QB Josh Nesbitt getting injured and then missing the over on the Florida/FSU game by 3 points after FSU settles for 3 points on the 1 yard line instead of going for it on 4th down), but we had a hell of a Sunday.  I placed 1 BIG bet on Sunday during the day and that was my Chargers/Vikings teaser, which was won very easily. We then won the Sunday night game and then the Monday night game as well, extending the Sunday/Monday night steak to 6-0.  We then took the Saints winnings and put them on UNC Tuesday night, which also hit for us with ease.

So since last Sunday night, let’s tally up those W’s and L’s. Are you ready for this? 15-3 (83.33%).  In other words, don’t mess with the master’s flow when he has a one bad week! Our winning percentage in the last week is higher than the employment rate in this country (there’s 17.8% un- and under-employment, for your information).

ONE LAST TIME. MY LAST 18 PICKS ARE 15-3. CHA-CHING!

Reminder: Don’t forget to set your picks in our Pick ‘Em league and vote in our poll.

NEW YORK JETS -3 @ BUFFALO BILLS

This is the Thursday Night game, which will be played in Toronto. I don’t like this game at all. Mark Sanchez sucks and the Bills suck too, but managed to beat the Dolphins last week, which was a huge surprise to me.  This one doesn’t even deserve my attention, so I’m going to skip over it. If you want a Thursday Night game to watch or bet on, I recommend the Pac 10 Championship between Oregon and Oregon State instead of this garbage, and I like the teaser of Oregon -3, Over 55, which you can read about here.

DENVER BRONCOS -5 @ KANSAS CITY CHIEFS

The Broncos finally ended their 4-game skid by getting a Thanksgiving win over the Giants, which surprised me, but at least I warned you that taking the Giants may result in a loss.  The Chiefs were demolished by the Chargers last week, but the last time they played in KC, they upset the Steelers. Crazy stuff occasionally goes down in Arrow Head Stadium. For my money, I like taking the Broncos here, but due to the Steelers upset, I’m approaching this game very cautiously and will not be taking it personally.

Prediction: Broncos 24 – Chiefs 16

Free Pick: Broncos -5 (Confidence: 2.5/5)

HOUSTON TEXANS @ JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS

This is a pick ’em here and I’m feeling that the Texans are just due for a win.  They were upset on Monday Night at home by the Titans and then ended up losing to the Colts after gaining a 14-0 lead. 91% of the money is on the Texans and 8/8 of the experts at Covers.com like the Texans here. With CB Mathis still doubtful for the Jags, I think Andre Johnson hurts them. The Jags pass offense blows, so that’s the difference in this one.  Can’t beat the spread either at a pick ’em.

Prediction: Texans 27 – Jaguars 20

Free Pick: Texans (Confidence: 3.5/5)

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS -5.5 @ MIAMI DOLPHINS

Monday Night was awesome for me. Not only was my Saints pick perhaps the easiest cover of the season thus far, but I got to see Tom Brady with that famous sour look on his face for the entire second half. The same face we saw against the Colts and the same face during the Super Bowl against the Giants. I loved every minute of seeing him lose. That sets up the perfect opportunity for him to beat the pants off the Dolphins this Sunday. 98% of the public likes the Pats and 4/5 experts at Covers.com do. The Pats beat the Dolphins about 3 weeks ago by 10 points, 27-17. In this one, I think they win by 10 or even more. Look for them to turn on the jets and be all business this game. That Pats are not going to lose their 5th game of the season. The moneyline at -240 looks like a lock to me, but the Dolphins have put up a fight at home to teams like the Colts and Saints.

Prediction: Patriots 31 – Dolphins 17

Free Pick: Patriots -5.5 (Confidence: 4/5)

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS @ CAROLINA PANTHERS -6.5

I cannot bet on the Panthers here. They lost at home to the Dolphins and followed that up with a pathetic loss to the Jets. It seems like all the players on that team have given up on the season. The Bucs are actually playing for pride unlike the Panthers.  I’m going against the grain and saying the Bucs cover here, but am I willing to bet on the Bucs for the sake of taking points? No, I am not.

Prediction: Panthers 24 – Buccaneers 20

Free Pick: Buccaneers +6.5 (Confidence: 2/5)

ST. LOUIS RAMS @ CHICAGO BEARS -9

About 5 weeks ago, I would have loved the Bears here, but they’ve been pretty pathetic in the last couple weeks (0-4 SU, 0-4 ATS). Orlando Pace may be out Sunday. Lance Briggs, Alex Brown, and Charles Tillman are all questionable. Chicago is averaging 12 PPG in their last 3 games, so of course I’m not going to give up 9 points, even if it is against the Rams. This does appear to be the perfect game for Chicago to rebound though, especially if they can get Matt Forte going against the Rams awful run defense, but I cannot take the game based on the Bears recent performance. The Rams are averaging just 8.8 PGG on the road, so the Bears should actually get their first cover in 5 weeks. I’m doing one of my famous teasers on this on, Bears and the Under.

Prediction: Bears 20 – Rams 10

Free Pick: 7-point Teaser: Bears -2, Under 48 (Confidence: 3/5)

TENNESSEE TITANS @ INDIANAPOLIS COLTS -7

How about them Titans. After starting the season 0-6, they’ve won 5 straight games, and actually have a chance to make the playoffs if their luck can continue. 56% of the public’s money and 5/6 experts at Covers.com like the Titans and the points here. It sounds intriguing, but I don’t see how you can bet against Peyton Manning at home. I guess people are feeling that the Colts are due for that first loss of the season after they flirted with that first L with the Ravens and then Texans. You could tease this to the Colts in a pick ’em game, but what do you do with the over/under set at 47. Do I like over 40 or under 54? The game total should be right in that range so I think you are likely to win either way you tease it. Tough call here.

Prediction: Colts 27 – Titans 20

Free Pick: 7-point teaser: Colts, Over 40 or Under 54 up to you

DETROIT LIONS @ CINCINNATI BENGALS -13

I don’t like the Bengals as 13-point favorites. The Bengals don’t usually beat teams by bunch (usually by just 3-7 points, but this is the Lions here). They didn’t cover against the Browns (16-7 as 14-point favorites) and they didn’t cover against the Raiders — they actually lost to the Raiders! The Lions have just been getting creamed though, so I don’t like the +13 either. The over/under is at a low 42, so I think you can tease this one down to 35 to take the over and the Bengals at -6, but I thought the Bengals and Browns game from last week could hit the over 32.5 and that one ended in a 16-7 score. How did the Bengals manage a mere 16 points against the Browns? I don’t know, but the Lions should definitely give up more points than the Browns did last week.

Prediction: Bengals 27 – Lions 16

Free Pick: 7-point teaser: Bengals -6, Over 35 (Confidence: 3/5)

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS -9.5 @ WASHINGTON REDSKINS

I love the Saints here. Don’t let the Redskins 24 points last week on the Eagles fool you too much. Granted, the Redskins played well, but the Eagles gave the Redskins 7 points at the start of the game by attempting an onside kick to begin the game, which gave the Redskins a short field (about 30 yards) to set up a TD. The Redskins have been playing with a bit more pride lately, and WR Devin Thomas is really impressing me, but the Saints should kill them. My only worry is if they suffer a “Monday Night hangover” after their big win, so let that be your “buyer beware” on this game. If they’re still celebrating Monday’s big win and take the Redskins lightly, they’ll be in trouble, but the way Sean Payton coaches, I’m sure he’ll have his team focused on this game.

Prediction: Saints 31 – Redskins 16

Free Pick: Saints -9.5 (Confidence: 3/5)

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES -5.5 @ ATLANTA FALCONS

I’m an Eagles fan, so the Matt Ryan injury came at the perfect time for them. That’s the whole reason 5/5 experts at Covers.com like the Eagles here. With Matt Ryan doubtful and Michael Turner questionable, the Falcons are in a lot of trouble this game. I wish the Eagles would win more convincingly the last two weeks, but a win is a win. I think the Eagles have an easy time covering against a defense that gives up a lot of yards and an offense without their two biggest stars. Unfortunately, DeSean Jackson will sit this one out, but I have enough faith in Jeremy Maclin and Jason Avant for McNabb to get it done. Look for LeSean McCoy to have a larger role in the offense now that DeSean is out and McNabb still has his favorite target TE Brent Celek to work with.

Prediction: Eagles 27 – Falcons 17

Free Pick: Eagles -5.5 (Confidence: 3.5/5)

SAN DIEGO CHARGERS -13 @ CLEVELAND BROWNS

I was loving the Chargers and Vikings last week as they rolled over their opponents and helped my big teaser hit. The Browns average 11.1 PPG and give up 25.4 PPG. The Chargers score 28.4 PPG and give up 19.9 PPG. Easy math here. The Chargers just dismantled the Chiefs last week 43-14. I like the Chargers here despite the high spread.

Prediction: Chargers 31 – Browns 10

Free Pick: Chargers -13 (Confidence: 3.5/5)

OAKLAND RAIDERS @ PITTBURGH STEELERS -14.5

Pretty ridiculous spread here. I guess the books are counting on the Steelers defense on not allowing the Raiders to score at all.  I’m not touching this one at all.  The Raiders have played the role of the spoiler a few times.

SAN FRANSISCO 49ERS @ SEATTLE SEAHAWKS

Another game that I don’t like at all and will completely ignore.

DALLAS COWBOYS -2.5 @ NEW YORK GIANTS

Eli Manning is playing really hurt and we saw it affect him last week. Manningham and Bradshaw are both questionable, which spells more trouble for the G-Men. This looks like a good spot to take the Cowboys, whose defense has been incredible latey, giving up just 12.7 PPG in their last 3 games.

Prediction: Cowboys 24 – Giants 17

Free Pick: Cowboys -2.5 (Confidence: 4/5)

MINNESOTA VIKINGS -3 @ ARIZONA CARDINALS

Livinitup told us that the spread was originally -1 but everyone and their mother took the Vikigns and the books had to take the spread down and readjust it to the tune of a 4.5 point line movement.  I loved the Vikings at -1 and I still love them at -5.5.  Their defense is ridiculous and their offense is even better. Count on a Saints vs. Vikings NFC Championship, which is going to be awesome!  I don’t care if Warner or Leinart is playing QB, the Vikings should cruise past the Cardinals.

Prediction: Vikings 31 – Cardinals 23

Free Pick: Vikings -3 (Confidence: 3.5/5)

BALTIMORE RAVENS @ GREEN BAY PACKERS -3

Three straight wins for the Pack now, so they’re firmly back in the playoff hunt when things after looking pretty bleak. I’m worried about some Packer injuries though. Al Harris and Aaron Kampman are missing from that defense. The Pack have two offensive linemen questionable, which has been their weakness all season long. The Ravens also have a lot of injuries too. Suggs is likely out again this week and they’ll also likely miss LB Burgess. I love the way Ray Rice is playing though. This is going to be a tough one and I see this one going either way. By no means is this a good game to bet on, but I’m going to stick with the Pack at home. Monday night + home team. Worked last week, I think it works again here. I’ll probably post a revised pick on Monday Night to make the Monday Night play official, but I’m probably not touching this game.

Prediction: Packers 27 – Ravens 24

Free Pick: Packers -3 (Confidence: 1/5)

TOP 7 SPREADS RANKED BY STRENGTH:

I like a ton of individual games, so we don’t have to go nuts with the teasers, although that worked like a charm last week.  I’ll still throw out some teaser ideas at the end for you.

* Have to be weary of all the road teams, but that’s how I see it going down.

1a.) Patriots -5.5 over DOLPHINS

1b.) Eagles -5.5 over FALCONS

1c.) Cowboys -2.5 over GIANTS

1d.) Vikings -3 over CARDINALS

5.) Chargers -13 over BROWNS

6.) Texans over JAGUARS

7.) Saints -9.5 over REDSKINS

FUN PARLAYS:

1.) 3-Team Parlay (6-to-1): Patriots -5.5, Eagles -5.5, Cowboys -2.5

2.) 4-Team Parlay (12-to-1): Patriots -5.5, Eagles -5.5, Cowsboys -2.5, Vikings -3

3.) 5-Team Parlay (25-to-1): Patriots -5.5, Eagles -5.5, Cowboys -2.5, Chargers -13, Vikings -3

3.) 6-Team Parlay (40-to-1): Patriots -5.5, Eagles -5.5, Cowboys -2.5, Chargers -13, Vikings -3, Texans

TEASERS TO PLAY:

1.) Favorite 2-Team Teaser: Saints -2.5, Chargers -6

2.) Quality 4-Team Teaser (2-to-1): Saints -2.5, Bengals -6, Chargers -6, Patriots +1.5

3.) Ultimate 8-Team Teaser (7-to-1): Patriots +1.5, Eagles +2.5, Cowboys +5.5, Texans +7, Chargers -6, Saints -2.5, Colts, Bengals -6

Disclaimer: Just because we’ve been damn good recently does not make any of these picks guaranteed. Do your own due diligence or Mr. T will throw a Mohawk grenade at you.