Oregon vs. Oregon State Prediction, Pick Against the Spread

Monday Night + Sunday Night steak goes to 6-0.  We then put that money on UNC last night and were up even more.  I’m looking into where to put my money next, which is why I’m eying up Thursday’s College Football card.

OREGON STATE BEAVERS @ OREGON DUCKS -10

Oregon has been unstoppable, but Oregon State has been extremely impressive as well. Going into this season, I don’t think any of us expected Oregon State to be an 8-3 team. These teams stats are practically identical on both sides of the ball.

Both teams resumes are extremely impressive. Oregon State beat UCLA by 7, Stanford by 10, and @Arizona State by 11. Oregon State’s losses are to Cincinnati by 10, Arizona by 5, and @USC by 6. Oregon has impressive wins over Arizone State by 23, USC by 27, Cal by 39.  Their 2 losses come via Boise State in week 1 where they lost 19-8 and 3 weeks ago @Stanford by 9.

When Oregon plays at home, they are dominant. They are 6-0 at home.  The scores of their last two home games, 44-21 and 47-20, and that was to Arizona State and USC  respectively, two high quality teams. Oregon State has proven that they can play on the road, but Oregon has shown that they are a dominant football team at home. When you can beat USC 47-20, you have one hell of a football team. However, Oregon State hung in there @USC, losing by the score of 42-36.

I think the home field is the difference in this one, and I think the Ducks win this one, but I do not like the spread at +10 and feel that Oregon State has a good chance of covering, but also has the chance of getting beat by 2 TDs.  This is why I want to tease this one. You could take the Beavers at +17, but I still think you go with the dominant Oregon home team at -3.

The over under is set at 62, which is borderline.  They way Oregon and Oregon State have been playing, you can expect a lot of scoring.  I would likely tease this down to 55 and take the over rather than teasing it up to 69 and taking the under.  The ND/Standford over/under was 72.5 and I thought that was going under, but the over hit by the 3rd quarter.  Oregon averages 37.7 PPG, while Oregon State averages 32.4 PPG, and neither has a tremendous defense, each giving up an average of more than 22 points.  Oregon State is slightly better against the run though, which is the strength of this Oregon team.  On the other hand, Oregon has the better pass defense, which is the strength of the Oregon State.

4/4 experts at Covers.com like the over in this one and 4/6 are favoring Oregon State +10. Last year when these teams played, Oregon beat Oregon State 65-38 and the last 7 games between these two teams have all gone over.

Prediction: Oregon 41 – Oregon State 34

Thursday’s Play: 7-point teaser: Oregon -3, Over 55 (Confidence: 3/5)

Note: The +17 on Oregon State sounds intriguing, but I think you see Oregon come out on top here. They blew out Oregon State last year and I don’t see why this year should be different. Oregon is capable of winning by 20, but I think a 6-7 point win is more realistic.