NFL Wild Card Weekend Picks Against the Spread

Playoff football is finally here.  Last week, our picks went 3-1 with our sole loss by a half point. Some of you may have even been lucky enough to have that one push if you got the line at -4 instead of -4.5.

We’ve also been cleaning up in hockey, as we added 3 units of profit to our yearly total yesterday and we are up a whopping 12 units.  We hit a rough spot early in the season with some unfortunate shootouts, but a little perseverance and hot streak has us up big.

This week, I’m eying up the Wild Card lines to see if there are any good plays to make. Unfortunately, 3 of the games are rematches from week 17.  When has that ever happend?

NEW YORK JETS @ CINCINNATI BENGALS -2.5

The Jets blanked the Bengals 37-0 last week to earn a shot in the playoffs.  That game meant nothing for the Bengals.  Carson Palmer played just a half before handing the game over to J.T. O’Sullivan.  I think this is a chance to take advantage of last week’s game.  Without last week, I’m sure the Bengals would be 4-6.5 point favorites.  The Jets D will keep this game tight, but I will have to bet against the rookie in his NFL playoff debut. The Bengals are not going to let the Jets run for over 250 yards again. Sanchez threw for a mere 63 yards last week. When the playoff pressure is on, I think you’ll see him throw a pick or two to the Bengals. I think the Bengals are the best play to make this week.

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES @ DALLAS COWBOYS -4

All of you know that I’m an Eagles fan.  Sure, the Cowboys beat the Eagles twice this season, including a 24-0 shutout last week. But how many times have you seen a team defeat another team 3 times in one season? That’s what I hope works to the Eagles advantage as I hopefully watch the Eagles advance to the next round.

BALTIMORE RAVENS @ NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS -3

The line opened at Ravens +4 and the public jumped at the chance to take the points with Wes Welker out. I would rarely suggest betting on a road playoff team, but I can see the Ravens winning this one outright. The loss of Wes Welker is just huge. He is the glue that holds the offense together. He is Tom Brady’s safety blanket. He must lead the league is passing targets. Now the Patriots are going to double team Randy Moss the entire game and basically shut him down. For the Patriots to win this game, they will have to depend on Laurence Maroney and Kevin Faulk to have big games and that’s asking a lot against a tough Ravens front 7. I think the Ravens can win this one because Ray Rice is capable of doing a lot of damage. It’s tough to call this one. I think you’re best served passing on it. I think the Ravens can win outright, but I don’t want to bet against the Patriots at home, but the Wes Welker injury has me liking the Ravens in this one.

GREEN BAY PACKERS @ ARIZONA CARDINALS -1

Although I did’t make it an official play last week, I did pick the Packers in our pick ’em league last week and the Pack won 33-7. Can they repeat that type of performance? I don’t see why not. Aaron Rodgers is playing out of his mind.  He completed over 80% of his passes last week, albeit against most of the Cardinals reserves, but there is no doubt that he has the hot hand going into this game. The Packers have won their last 7 of 8 and their sole loss came by 1 point on the road to the Steelers. Like the Jets game, you can’t put too much emphasis on the win since it came against the Cardinals B team. This is another game that is too close to call. I like the Packers, but find it hard to bet against a star like Larry Fitzgerald in the playoffs.

SUMMARY

There’s really only one game that I like this week and that is the Bengals -2.5 over the Jets. But expect that one to be relatively close with a tough Jets D and cold weather. You have to think that Sanchez throws a pick or two that game though. Although I like the Ravens and Packers, I cannot give them my stamp of approval playing on the road. For the Eagles, I’m hoping that the fact that they’ve been beaten twice this season by the Cowboys  is to their advantage since it’s awfully hard to beat a team 3 times in 1 season.

Good luck everyone.