TCU vs. Oregon State Preview, Prediction, Pick Against the Spread

Posted by Vegas Martin in College Football Picks on August 11th, 2010 | Comment »

Andy Dalton hopes to lead his team to an undefeated year if they can get past OSU.

OREGON STATE BEAVERS @ TCU HORNED FROGS (-13)

Coming into this season, TCU is ranked 7th while Oregon State is ranked 23rd. The TCU/OSU spread jumped out at me because Oregon State is a quality team and they’re getting double-digit points here, which had me think about taking a game where you’re starting off with some points. However, with the Horned Frog’s extraordinary offense and rushing attack, TCU may end up beating the Beavers convincingly.

TCU was ranked No. 3 last year going into the Fiesta Bowl ultimately losing 17-10, so my last impression of them was that they’re impressive offense when playing competition in the Mountain West Conference, but when faced with a legitimate defense like BSU’s, they get shut down.

Oregon State closed the regular season losing to the 7th ranked Oregon Ducks in honourable [sic] fashion, 37-33. Oregon State was a 10-point dog in that game and we recommended a teaser taking the Ducks at -3 with the over 55 — a spot on call if there ever was one. Oregon State finished the season 8-5 crushing the likes of California, Washington, and Washington State, and topping quality teams like Stanford and Arizona State, before competing against Oregon at a high level. In that game, they nearly had the Ducks beat. They had the lead going into the half and trailed by just 1 point going into the 4th quarter. It was an excellent game and a nail-biter for those who had money on the line. It was probably one of the best games of the season if you ask me.

Oregon State has the Rodgers Brothers coming back from another season. RB Jacquizz Rodgers, the the third best back in the Pac 10, piled up 1440 yards and 21 TDs last season. Jacquizz’s bro, WR James Rodgers helped the Beavers out in the air by hauling in an impressive 91 receptions for 1034 yards and 9 TDs. That will surely help out Oregon State’s young QB Ryan Katz, who is replacing Sean Canfield. Katz was the 19th ranked QB from the 2008 graduating class. The Gazette Times has a great piece on how the sophomore will handle the role as the starter. The good news for Katz has 4 of the 5 offensive linemen returning from last season and he has the same receiving corp from last season to work with. On defense, the Beavers have 10 starters returning from this past season. Overall, you’re getting the same solid squad from last year with a fresh face at QB. Katz will benefit from the Rodgers Brothers, a returning offensive line, and the same playmakers at wideout.

TCU was undefeated last season until their first loss in the Fiesta Bowl. TCU was also the 5th best rushing team in the league last season, piling up 238 yards per game. With RB Matthew Tucker and RB Ed Wesley returning, the Horned Frog’s running attack shouldn’t show any signs of slowing down. TCU will also have QB Andy Dalton (2756 yards, 23 TDs last season) returning with his top 4 receivers targets all back for another season, who Dalton likes to spread the ball around to. TCU lost 2 key players on defense though, LB Daryl Washington and DE Jerry Hughes.

This is a tough game to call here. I was leaning towards taking the points with a high-caliber Beavers team getting spotted 13 points, but the TCU offense may be too much for Oregon State to handle. After looking at some common opponents last season, TCU looks like the pick here. Both teams played UNLV and BYU in the 2009 season. Oregon State topped UNLV 23-21 and lost to BYU in their Bowl game 44-20. TCU steam rolled over UNLV 41-0 and hammered BYU 38-7. TCU looks like the pick here, especially with Oregon State on the road with a new QB. The only question is whether TCU’s defense has enough manpower to stop the Rodgers Brothers after losing their two best defensive players.

Prediction: TCU 34 – Oregon State 20

Pick Against the Spread: Teaser TCU -6/Over 43.5 (Confidence: 2.5/5)

Notes: I was leaning OSU before looking into this one. With a fresh face at QB, OSU is clearly disadvantaged. Against a strong rushing team like Oregon, Oregon State gave up a lot of points. I expect it to be the same story this season as TCU starts off the season at home with a bang. I want to tease this spread down to TCU -6 to pair with another team or the over.

Who do you think will cover Oregon State @ TCU (-13)?