Week 1 College Football Picks Against the Spread

Gentlemen, we are one day away from embarking on another season of football. The day is finally upon us. For the past three weeks I’ve been going through the week 1 college football spreads to see if I can strike gold early. I hate to be the bearer of bad news and inform you that I haven’t been able to spot any “must take” spreads where I can easily strike “pay dirt.” I’ll be playing these games very conservatively since I firmly place them all in “toss up” territory. Here is an overview of the games that we’ve previewed.

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WEEK 1 COLLEGE FOOTBALL PICKS AGAINST THE SPREAD

1.) Pitt (+3.5) over Utah — Confidence 2.5/5

I like Pitt’s D and running game (Dion Lewis) in this one, but with a fresh face at QB and a long trip out West, I’m not ready to be too confident in them just yet. I’m also a Pennsylvania native and I’d be lying if I didn’t tell you that I was slightly bias in taking Pitt.

2.) South Carolina (-14) over Southern Miss

This Brandon’s pick. If you want to read more about it, you’ll have to visit the link. However, like UNC, South Carolina has some suspension issues of their own which you should look into and be cautious about.

3.) USC -19 over Hawaii — Confidence 1/5

I don’t like high spreads, so I’m passing.  The line moved to USC -21.5, so the public is clearly all over USC.

4.) LSU (-9.5) over UNC — Confidence 3/5

With 13 players suspended for UNC, the line has move to UNC -1 to LSU -9.5. Good news to all the Tigers fans who took LSU +1.5 early. With so many players out, how can you not expect the Tigers to win by double digits?

4.) Notre Dame (-10.5) over Purdue — Confidence 2/5

Don’t let the losses of Jimmy Clausen and Golden Tate fool you. ND is still stacked on offense with outstanding WR Michael Floyd. ND’s spread offense against an entirely new Purdue secondary has me liking the Irish here. Purdue’s lead back is also out with an injury and their QB kind of sucks. The confidence is only a 2/5 because the spread is a bit high for my taste. I would be more much comfortable at 9.5, but Notre Dame should still win by 2 TDs. Teasing this down to -4.5 with another game seems like a good play.

5.) TCU (-6)/Over 43.5 vs. Oregon State — Confidence 2.5/5

Oregon State has a suspect defense and a rookie QB. However, they have a great running game so they’re quite capable of keeping up with TCU here. I just think TCU’s offense proves to be too much for a troubled D. 80% of our readers like Oregon State with the points (+13), so maybe you should listen to them. However, a teaser of TCU -6/Over 43.5 looks like a nice play in this game.

6.) Cincinnati (-1.5) over Fresno State — Confidence 3/5

The spread has moved to Fresno State -2 so that’s where the money is moving to. Brandon also like Fresno State. I’m just not seeing it. Cincinnati’s D is a huge liability no doubt, but I don’t expect them to lose any offensive fire power with Zach Callaros, who was nothing short of spectacular last season. Fresno State returns their entire line and has two quality backs to replace Ryan Matthews, so they may be able to move the ball on Cincinnati. I just think that Cincinnati will be able to put up points at a much faster pace than Fresno. Fresno plays in the WAC and even with Ryan Matthews, they didn’t have a single win that truly impressed me last season.

7.) Washington (+3) over BYU — Confidence 2/5

Washington has a stellar QB in Jake Locker and and he has plenty of offensive weapons to work with. I think Washington will surprise a lot of people this year. BYU has a very strong defense, so this will be a tough place for Washington to pick up the win, but with the +3, I like their odds at covering. BYU is losing some key offensive pieces so I don’t think they’ll score too much and Washington has the offense that can win this game. With Washington on the road, I had to scale back the confidence though.

9.) Washington State (+18.5) over Oklahoma State — Confidence 1.5/5

Washington State returns 15 starters compared to Oklahoma State’s 8. OSU also replacing four offensive linemen, lost six key defenders, and will have a new QB. OSU wins by 14 in my humble opinion.

10.) Colorado vs. Colorado State

I’m not taking this game straight. Any combination of teasers should be a winner. You could go Colorado -4.5/Over 39.5 or Colorado State +18.5/Under 53.5 depending on what you like.

11.) Virginia Tech (+2.5) over Boise State — Confidence 1.5/5

Brandon likes Boise State and that is the likely play to make in this one — don’t kid yourselves.  I’m not betting on this one, but this is the big week 1 college football game and I had to preview it. I’m simply trying to be a “tough guy” and picking against the public. 52% of those we polled like Boise State. Thanks for the overwhelming response folks as we got over 895 votes and should reach over 1,000 votes by game time. Poll archives for all games can be seen here. Thanks to the Hokies and Broncos blogs who gave THE PASS RUSH a shout out. It’s always appreciated. My confidence in Virginia Tech is waning, but I love their three-headed monster of running threats in Tyrod Taylor, Ryan Williams, and Darren Evans. Ryan Williams could very well be the best RB in the nation and Boise State frequently struggles against the run.

Conclusion

Tread carefully ladies and gentlemen. I’m not overly confident in any of these picks. It’s the beginning of a long season and I’m playing nothing more than a few games with “funny money.” Let’s see how some of these turn out before we start putting some real money down. I would anticipate that about half of these picks hit, so if I can come out 6-5 or better, I’m liking the way the season has started out. I’ll be sticking to picks that are a 4/5, which I hit about 63-67% of the time. Nothing on the week 1 college football menu really gets me going. If you’re hitting 55%+, then you’ll be doing alright in my book. To stick to tradition, I will include a poll as always and a video. Best of luck to you all in week 1.

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