NFL Week 7 Predictions and Picks Against the Spread (1:00 Games)

Are the Steelers the team to beat this year?

We got back on track with two positive weeks for our overall picks in the pick ’em league. This past week our top picks in the Saints and Bears split, but we delivered a Monday Night winner going against the home dog on conservative guidance. Sorry for the lack of full updates in the last two weeks, I was away for a bit, but now back on track.

CLEVELAND BROWNS @ NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (-13)

Saints have problems with high spreads as their woes with double-digit spreads has been well documented by us. We recommended Panthers +12.5 two weeks ago which was New Orleans last game in the dome. The Saints ended up winning 16-14 and the Panthers had an easy cover. The Browns haven’t been terrible. They almost covered the 13 points against the Steelers last week until a late TD got the Steelers in the money. The Browns covered against the Ravens on the road. There’s no way I would put money on the Browns since the Saints could easily win this game 31-10, I’m just saying the spread is too high to take the Saints.

Prediction: Saints 24 – Browns 13

Pick Against the Spread: Browns +13 (Confidence: 1/5)

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS @ KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (-9.5)

Good bet against the Jaguars despite the whole Monday Night home-dog fear factor. I’ve always dogged the Jags. They’re just not a good team. I don’t know how they got past the Colts, but they did. I never would have thought the Chiefs would be a 9.5 point favorite at any point in this season. Do the Chiefs finally have an offense? They put up 31 against the Texans, but the Texans have some defensive issues. They put 31 up on the 49ers at home, but they also got shut down by the Colts and held to 9. You just never know what you’re going to get from the Chiefs. This one is a total crap shoot. I think it’s too many points, but the Chiefs are a strong team at home, their offense has had some strong performances, and the Jaguars defense is miserable (giving up 27.8 PPG) so the Chiefs may very well get the double digit win. I would stay away. I can lean either way. Totally 50/50 on this pick. When in doubt, take points.

Prediction: Chiefs 24 – Jaguars 17

Pick Against the Spread: Jaguars +9.5 (Confidence: 1/5)

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES @ TENNESSEE TITANS (-3)

I’m an Eagles fan, so I must abstain from this game. The loss of DeSean Jackson hurts, but when Jackson was out, Maclin shined. Kevin Kolb put nice back-to-back games together. I like the chances of the Eagles, but the Titans are a strong team. I can’t wait to watch this one.

CINCINNATI BENGALS @ ATLANTA FALCONS (-3.5)

I really like the Falcons here because they’re due for a rebound game at home after getting slammed by my Eagles. However, with the Bengals losing their last two games to the Bucs and Browns by 3 points, they need this one. The Bengals have looked pretty flat all year long. I have to go with the Falcons here at home where they are typically hot.

Prediction: Falcons 24 – Bengals 17

Pick Against the Spread: Falcons -3.5 (Confidence: 3/5)

WASHINGTON REDSKINS @ CHICAGO BEARS (-3)

I thought the Bears would be a strong pick at home against a horrific road team, but the Seahawks came out swinging and topped the Bears. This is now two straight losses for a Bears team that got off to a hot start. I think the Redskins are playing better football than the Bears right now so I’ll take the +3 and side with the Skins as I think they can win outright or at a minimum, keep this game close. With a vulnerable Bears offensive line, Brian Orakpo is due for 3 sacks in this game. Mark it up.

Prediction: Redskins 20 – Bears 17

Pick Against the Spread: Redskins +3 (Confidence: 3/5)

PITTSBURGH STEELERS (-3) @ MIAMI DOLPHINS

The Dolphins rebounded after an embarrassing home loss on Monday Night to the Patriots by going on the road and beating Green Bay in overtime. The Dolphins played a good game, but there’s no way they would have won that game if the Packers weren’t decimated by injuries. There aren’t many teams playing better football than the Steelers though and I hate to admit it as an Eagles fan. So far this season, the Steelers have looked like the team to beat. I’m expecting the Steelers D to shut down the Dolphins as the Steelers D is holding opponents to just 12 PPG, a league best.

Prediction: Steelers 23 – Dolphins 13

Pick Against the Spread: Steelers -3 (Confidence: 3/5)

ST. LOUIS RAMS @ TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS (-2.5)

I’ve been pretty high on the Rams this year. Other than getting blown out by the Lions, they’ve been strong. They beat the Chargers, Seahawks, and Redskins, but haven’t found a road win yet, losing to Detroit and Oakland on the road. Based on their road woes, you may want to lean Bucs, but I’m just not confident in them. I’m going to take the Rams due to stronger quarterback play. Other than the Bucs win over the Bengals, they’ve gotten crushed by the Saints and Steelers. This one should be close, but I have the Rams coming out by 3.

Prediction: Rams 20 – Buccaneers 17

Pick Against the Spread: Rams +2.5 (Confidence: 2/5)

BUFFALO BILLS @ BALTIMORE RAVENS (-13)

Before looking at this one, I had a feeling the Ravens would be favored by 13 which is a fair spread. I would love the Ravens at -9.5. The Bills have been atrocious: winless and giving up 32.8 PPG. They’ve given up 34+ points in their last 4 games against New England, Green Bay, Jacksonville, and the Jets.  The Ravens offense hasn’t been able to get going though. They’re posting just 18.7 PPG.  I think you see the Ravens score 24-27 here, so the Ravens D will need to hold the Bills to 10-13. I’ll take the Ravens in the pick ’em league. I would tease this game to Ravens -6. A late game score by the Bills may ruin this card for some.

Prediction: Ravens 27 – Bills 13

Pick Against the Spread: Ravens -13 (Confidence: 2/5)

SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS (-2) @ CAROLINA PANTHERS

Carolina is winless and averaging a league-worst 10 PPG. Last year’s strategy was pick against the league’s worst teams. The Panthers are the worst team in the NFL right now. Two factors against the 49ers: betting against a home dog and a west coast team playing an east coast team at 1:00. I’m saying that’s a non-factor. The 49ers need this win and you’re getting a ridiculously low spread to take a chance on them. You know the risks though and that’s exactly why the spread is so low and suckering you in.

Prediction: 49ers 20 – Panthers 10

Pick Against the Spread: 49ers -2 (Confidence: 3/5)

CONCLUSION

There are some nice spreads to take a deeper look into. I’m betting against a lot of home dogs, but as the season moves on the less the home-dog factor has played out (TEN over JAC, NE over MI, both on Monday Night are two games that notably stick out). I think you should take a look into PIT -3, SF -2, WAS +3, STL +2.5, and ATL -3.5. I would pass on the rest. I’ll release the 4:00 picks tomorrow. Good luck.