NFL Week 1: Predicted Lines vs. Actual Lines

A good exercise to utilize before placing any bets on games is to write down what you think the line will be before seeing them. This will help you spot some value plays or help you think if you’re giving up too many points to pick a certain team. Based on some preliminary looks, I like Atlanta over Chicago, Kansas City over Buffalo, Arizona over Carolina, and New England over Miami.

One game where I was way off was New York Giants @ Washington. I thought Vegas may put the Redskins at 2.5-point favorites since they’re at home. New York Giants have a better team on paper, but I still like getting +3 at home in the opener. I love the way the Redskins running game was looking in the preseason and Rex Grossman looked great in his preseason start against the Steelers.

New Orlenas @ Green Bay
Expected Line: Green Bay -3
Actual Line:  Green Bay -4

Philadelphia @ St. Louis
Expected Line: Philadelphia -4
Actual Line: Philadelphia -4.5

Atlanta @ Chicago
Expected Line: Atlanta -3.5
Actual Line: Atlanta -3

Cincinnati @ Cleveland
Expected Line: Cleveland -4
Actual Line: Cleveland -6.5

Buffalo @ Kansas City
Expected Line: Kansas City -7
Actual Line: Kansas City -6.5

Detroit @ Tampa Bay
Expected Line: Tampa Bay -1.5
Actual Line: Tampa Bay -1.5

Tennessee @ Jacksonville
Expected Line: Jacksonville -1
Actual Line: Jacksonville -3

Pittsburgh @ Baltimore
Expected Line: Pittsburgh -1
Actual Line:  Baltimore -2.5

Indianapolis @ Houston
Expected Line: Houston -4.5
Actual Line: Houston -6

Carolina @ Arizona
Expected Line: Arizona -7
Actual Line: Arizona -6.5

Minnesota @ San Diego
Expected Line: San Diego -7.5
Actual Line: San Diego -9

Seattle @ San Francisco
Expected Line: San Francisco -4.5
Actual Line:  San Francisco -5.5

New York Giants @ Washington
Expected Line: Washington -2.5
Actual Line: New York Giants -3

New England @ Miami
Expected Line: New England -9
Actual Line: New England -7

Oakland @ Denver
Expected Line: Denver -3
Actual Line: Denver-3