Giants vs. Cowboys Season Opener Pick Against the Spread

We are just days away from the opening kickoff on Wednesday, September 5, 2012. The Super Bowl champion Giants are set to host the Dallas Cowboys. Before we can into the analysis for the game, remember to sign up for the pick ’em league before kickoff for your chance to win a free custom NFL Shop t-shirt. It’s a great way to track your record throughout the season and to compete against other readers of THE PASS RUSH and me.

DALLAS COWBOYS @ NEW YORK GIANTS (-4)

I like the Giants in this one at home. The Giants had the Cowboys number last season. The Giants beat the Cowboys in the final week of the season for the NFC East Title 31-14. Eli Manning picked the Cowboys secondary apart throwing for 346 yards and 3 TDs. That is exactly why the Cowboys acquired CB Brandon Carr in free agency and drafted CB Morris Claiborne. Victor Cruz did most of the damage in that final game with 6 receptions for 178 yards.

In the team’s previous contest in Dallas, the Giants escaped with a 37-34 win, again doing it with their passing game. Eli Manning threw for 400 yards and 2 TDs in that game. In fact, the Cowboys have only beaten the Giants once in the last 3 years, so the Giants hold a 5-1 record against the Cowboys in their last 6 games and have covered the spread in each win. The only game they didn’t cover was their 33-20 loss on November 14, 2010, when the Cowboys won the turnover battle.

There are some injuries to take into consideration. There’s about a 90% chance that Jason Witten sits this game out. Miles Austin is listed as questionable. Hakeem Nicks is probable.

The line on this game opened with the Giants as 3-point favorites and has moved to 4 points at most sports books. 71% of bettors are putting their money on the Giants in this one. I like the Giants in this one as well. Home field is key and history shows that the Giants dominate this matchup.

The over is 5-1 in these team’s last 6 matchups. With the over/under at 46.5, this also opens up the ability to tease the over/under down to 39.5 to take the over and making the line Giants +3. I’m not crazy about the over 46.5 in this one with Jason Witten out, Miles Austin questionable, and Hakeem Nicks still not at 100%. The over 39.5 seems like a lock for purposes of the teaser, but I have the outcome in this one as 27-20, making the over/under too close to call.

Prediction: Giants 27 – Cowboys 20

Pick Against the Spread: Giants -4 (Confidence: 7/10)

Over/Under Pick: Over 46.5 (Confidence 5/10)

Teaser Pick: Giants +3/Over 39.5 (Confidence: 7/10)

Good luck gentlemen and be sure to sign up for the pick ’em league.