Week 10 – Picks Against the Spread (2012)

Last week was a solid week with a 8-1 ATS record after the 1:00 games and a 11-3 ATS record to finish the week. November has historically been my strong month, which makes the rest of the month very exciting. Last week was a good week for the favorites and this week looks like another week for the favorites. My favorite teaser play this week is Patriots (-4)/49ers (-4). Both teams are at home against weak opponents. The same teaser hit for me last week. Broncos, Lions, and Cowboys are my top road favorites.

Indianapolis Colts (-3) over JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS — Confidence: 7/10 — I look to bet against the Jaguars nearly every week. My only concern as that while Andrew Luck has been phenomenal at home, he’s struggled on the road. However, the Jags are just awful and the Colts should easily win this one.

Denver Broncos (-3.5) over CAROLINA PANTHERS — Confidence: 7/10 — Peyton Manning is at the top of his game. If he could pick apart a Bengals defense on the road, he should have no problems finding holes in the Panthers poor defense. I’m confident that he’ll be able to pull off back-to-back road wins.

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS (-3) over San Diego Chargers — Confidence: 7/10 — The Bucs have been red hot over the last four weeks as their offense is producing huge numbers thanks to Doug Martin, Mike Williams, and Vincent Jackson. They’ve had a fairly soft schedule in that stretch, so I’m looking forward to how they’ll perform against a team the caliber of the Chargers.

MIAMI DOLPHINS (-6) over Tennessee Titans — Confidence: 6/10 — I’m not crazy about laying the points to take Miami, but they’ve been solid on both sides of the ball, particularly on defense. Four of Miami’s last five games have been on the road and they still managed a 3-2 record. Although I’ll pick them in this spot, I’m just not confident enough to lay money on them giving up a touchdown.

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (-11) over Buffalo Bills — Confidence: 6/10 — The Bills typically put up a fight against the Patriots as the Bills are 3-4 ATS against New England in their last 7, which would me make hesitant to bet against them. I would tease this line down to Patriots (-4) to pair with another line of your choice, such as 49ers (-4) over the Rams. I’m liking the Patriots/49er teaser combo as that hit for me last week. Seeing that the Patriots manhandled the Bills the first time they played in Buffalo 52-28, I expect them to lay the smackdown once again.

BALTIMORE RAVENS (-9.5) over Oakland Raiders — Confidence: 6/10 — The Ravens are dominant at home and the Raiders will be without their running game as both DMC and Mike Goodson suffered ankle injuries last week.

New York Giants (-3.5) over CINCINNATI BENGALS — Confidence: 7/10 — The Bengals have lost three straight at home. The Dolphins, Steelers, and Broncos had no problem getting wins. I don’t think that should be any different when the Giants come into town.

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (+1) over Atlanta Falcons — Confidence: 7/10 — I’m calling it, the Falcons lose the first game of the season this week against the Saints. They’re just due for a loss. Saints have won their last 3 of 4 and need this one to keep their playoff hopes alive.

Detroit Lions (-1) over MINNESOTA VIKINGS— Confidence: 7/10 — The Lions have won two straight.  The Vikings have lost two straight. The public is overwhelmingly in favor of the Lions, where 62% of the money is going. I was initially looking to take the Vikings at home. However, Christian Ponder has been playing poorly over the last few weeks and will be without his top target Percy Harvin. This will be the Lions game to win unless Adrian Peterson puts the entire team on his back.

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (-6) over New York Jets — Confidence: 6/10 — The Seahawks have been dominant at home, but I won’t be surprised with a Jets cover. The Jets played a hard fought game against the Patriots on the road and covered. Plus, they’re off the bye week.

Dallas Cowboys (-1) over PHILADELPHIA EAGLES — Confidence: 7/10 — I’m an Eagles fan and they’re just painful to watch. They have 1 remaining starter on their offensive line. Vick was sacked 7 times last week. Turnovers continue to be a problem. You can’t win football games without an offensive line. I’m scared for Michael Vick’s life behind the worst offensive line int he NFL. Dallas should easily dominate the line and dominate this game. I just want Andy Reid fired and to be replaced with Jon Gruden.

SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS (-11) over St. Louis Rams — Confidence: 7/10 — It’s going to be awfully tough for the Rams to score on a defense that gives up an average of 4 points in their last 4 games.

CHICAGO BEARS (-1) over Houston Texans — Confidence: 6/10 — DA BEARS!

PITTSBURGH STEELERS (-11.5) over Kansas City Chiefs — Confidence: 6/10 — What a disaster the Chiefs are. Steelers should win in a rout.