NFL Week 11 Predictions, Picks Against the Spread

We are back with our NFL Week 11 Picks Against the Spread.  Last week was rough.  The underdogs finally had their day.  Our top 8 picks went 3-5 and the games that I personally played went 3-3.  I was able to get back in the game with back-to-back winners in the Sunday Night and Monday Night games, which were both listed in my top 8 picks.  I apologize for the poor start, but we came back with the solid finish to the week.  We’ve had a tremendous amount of success in the NFL this season.  In the past three weeks, our top picks have a 14-4 (77.77%) record.  That amount of success is unprecedented, so get off my case about 1 bad week.  This week I seek to prove all the haters wrong.  I’m sticking to my guns and will continue to bet against teams like the Rams, Browns, Raiders, Bucs, and Chiefs, who are facing solid teams with the exception of the Lions (Cardinals, Lions, Bengals, Saints, and Steelers respectively).  Top spreads ranked by strength are listed at the bottom.  As you can tell, I did more due diligence on each game.  I packed in a ton of analysis into each game and kept my eye on the injury reports.

MIAMI DOLPHINS @ CAROLINA PANTHERS -3

Most people see this matchup and want to jump on the Dolphins +3.  First lesson in sports betting, well maybe not the first, but one of the top 5: always check the injury reports!  Ronnie Brown is out in this game.  I provide links to resources for you to use that I use before picking my games.  Look at the NFL Information section and click the NFL Injury Report link or visit the link.

Ronnie Brown is listed as doubtful, but I think there is a 95% chance that he does not play since this injury may end his season.  Although Miami does have Ricky Williams who is capable of handling the offense himself, without Ronnie Brown, the Dolphins are missing just about 33% of their offensive production and the extra element that makes their offense successful.  Maybe the Dolphins do some wild-cat stuff with Pat White and Ricky Williams, but there’s no doubt about it, that this loss is a huge blow.  Without Ronnie Brown, the Dolphins nearly lost to the Bucs at home.  TE Fasano is also doubtful and S Gibril Wilson may be missing from the Dolphins secondary.

The Panthers have been heating up lately.  They beat the Atlanta and Arizona, two playoff caliber teams, and almost topped the Saints.  They’ve been averaging over 27 points in their last 3 games and give up just 16.3 points per game at home.  The key to the Panthers success is their running game, and that is where Miami’s strength on defense.  Miami is averaging just 3.7 yards per rush (YPR) and allow just 97.6 yards per game, which is 7th in the league.  However, Miami is ranked 27th in the pass.

In order for the Panthers to win this one, Delhomme will have to protect the football, namely from CB Vontae Davis, and WR Steve Smith will need to have a big game.  Due to the Ronnie Brown injury, the Panthers playing good football lately, and the Panthers being at home, I’m taking them to win this game and cover, but it’s not the strongest play of the week.

Prediction: Panthers 23 – Dophins 17

Free Pick: Panthers -3 (Confidence: 2.5/5) (L)

CLEVELAND BROWNS @ DETROIT LIONS -3.5

The battle of two losers and one team will hurt their draft position this week, which is just a bummer. The Browns are horrendous and Quinn and the WRs aren’t on the same page.  At least Stafford can deliver the football well and makes his mistakes only when he has to play from behind or is forced into some 3rd and long situations. I don’t think you have to worry about him playing from behind this week. Look for the Lions to get their second win of the season this week at home. Injuries to be concerned with: Lions possibly missing two stellar LBs, Larry Foot and Ernie Simms.  Both are questionable, so check on their status before taking the Lions. I will need them in the game to help stop the Browns run in order to take this pick.

Prediction: Lions 24 – Browns 13

Free Pick: Lions -3.5 (Confidence: 3/5) (L)

BUFFALO BILLS @ JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS -8

I do not like betting on the Jaguars ever, especially not when they’re giving up 8 points.  I’m surprised they’re actually a 5-4 team, since they feel like a 3-6 team.  They are just 4-5 ATS the spread though.  The Bills are also 4-5 ATS.  When the Jaguars win, the margin of victory is almost always 7 points or less.  They won’t run up the score on you and their defense still has some question marks.  The Bills have been awful against the run and MJD is capable of hurting them.  The Bills have lost both starting corners, which has killed them, and CB Youtboy is also questionable this game.  For the Jaguars, they’ll be without lockdown corner Rashean Mathis.  Due to the loss of the Bills CBs, I’m looking for WR Mike Sims-Walker to have a huge game.  If the Bills weren’t plagued with injuries at CB and elsewhere, I would take the +8, but there’s a chance the Bills get blown out in this one.  However, due to the Jaguars long history of rarely winning by double digits, I cannot recommend this game, so this one is in the “no action” category.

Free Pick: No Action

PITTSBURGH STEELERS -10 @ KANSAS CITY CHIEFS

I love the Steelers in this one. Not only do I love betting against the Chiefs, but the sole offensive star on their team WR Dwayne Bowe is facing a 4-game suspension for a banned substance violation.  With a tough Steelers D and a KC team without their stud WR, I don’t expect the Chiefs to score more than 6 points in this game. With the Steelers stout run D, the Chiefs will be punting a lot, and the Steelers will get a ton of time with the football, but they’ll likely grind it out with the run, which will limit the amount of points they score in this game.  The Steelers will be fired up after their tough loss to Cincinnati and in order to boost their confidence, I would think that they’ll want to run up that score against  a defense that is 27th in yards allow, 24th in points allowed, 24th against the pass, and 27th against the run.  Even if the Chiefs manage 10-13 points, I still think you’ll get the Steelers cover.  8/8 “experts” at Covers.com are all on board with the Steelers.  One injury to note: Polamalu is doubtful, but I don’t think that matters against the Chiefs.

Prediction: Steelers 24 – Chiefs 6

Free Pick: Steelers -10 (Confidence: 4/5) (L)

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS -1 @ BALTIMORE RAVENS

I really want to take the Colts in this one, but my gut is trying to tell me that the Colts are just “due for a loss.” The Ravens lack of offense against a poor Browns was a discouraging sign for their team. The Colts should still be easily able to outscore the Ravens when you take all the Ravens injuries into consideration: CB Rolle (out), LB Ayanbadajo (out), LB Gooden (questionable), LB Suggs (questionable), DE Ngata (questionable), and TE Heap (questionable).  The injuries that hit the Ravens just this past week are Heap, Suggs, and Ngata, which are all significant blows.

For an Indianapolis defense that still ranks 1st in points allowed even after giving up 34 to the Patriots, 15th against the run, 16th against the pass, and 13th in yards allowed, I like my chances of them limiting the Ravens offense and have the Colts 4th ranked offense in terms of points and 3rd ranked offense in terms of points take care of business.  Peyton Manning is just playing out of his mind and his chemistry with Reggie Wayne, Pierre Garcon, and Dallas Clark just cannot be stopped.  I’m taking Indianapolis here and would even take this spread at -3.5.  Consider -1 a gift.  I would give this one a 4/5 rating, but it only gets a 3.5 rating since you can’t help but feel that they have to get their 1st loss of the season at some point.

Prediction: Colts 24 – Ravens 16

Free Pick: Colts -1 (Confidence: 3.5/5) (W)

ATLANTA FALCONS @ NEW YORK GIANTS -6.5

The Falcons have been a huge disappointment lately, going 1-2 ATS in their last 3.  They covered at home against the dismal Redskins, but we’ve picked them to cover the +4 against Dallas and they were blown out, and they were just beaten badly by the Panthers as 1-point favorites.  The Giants are coming off 3 straight losses to the Cardinals, Eagles, and Chargers, and got their bye week at the right time.  I love home teams off the bye week.  Last week, the home team off the bye week were just 1-2 though.   The Rams covered against the Saints, but bye week at home could not save the Jets or the Raiders.  Atlanta has also struggled on the road with a 1-4 road record, but they’ve had a tough road schedule (NE, NO, DAL, CAR, SF).

The Giants secondary has some issues due to the loss of S Phillips and CB Aaron Ross (questionable), which could allow Roddie White to run wild.  The Giants may also be without DE Justin Tuck.  The Falcons also have to deal with the loss of RB Turner, who is doubtful due to an ankle injury.  Due to all the injuries, this game has a lot of question marks around it.  Due to the Falcons being a poor team on the road, looking pretty bad in the past few weeks, and the Giants being at home off the bye week, I’m leaning towards the Giants here, but I’m worried about their secondary issues.  What makes me like the Giants though is the Falcons give up a ton of yards.  They’re 25th in total yards allowed, 28th in passing yards allowed, and 26th in rushing yards allowed.  With the Giants balanced offense, it shouldn’t be a problem for them to move the football.

Prediction: Giants 24 – Falcons 17

Free Pick: Giants -6.5 (Condidence: 2/5) (L)

SAN FRANSISCO 49ERS @ GREEN BAY PACKERS -6.5

As soon as I give up on the Packers due to their loss against the Bucs and pick the Cowboys to beat them, the Packers come back and get the win over Big D at home to help keep their playoff hopes alive.  I was expecting the Packers offensive line to be dominated by the Cowboys pass rush just like the Packers were dominated in their losses to the Bengals and Bucs, but it just didn’t happen.

The 49ers are coming off a win against a Bears team from last Thursday and have the benefit of a few more days rest. The 49ers offense struggled though. Even after their defense got them 5 INTs, the 49ers just managed 10 points. With CB Nate Clements still out for the 49ers, I like what Aaron Rodgers could do to that 49ers secondary.  The Packers have the chance to put up a decent amount of points and I’ve gained confidence in the Packers defense last week after they held the Cowboys to 7.  With the 49ers scoring just 10 after 5 INTs, I don’t think they can have enough offense to cover in this one.  I’m not very high on this pick since you never know if the Packers offensive line will let them down again, but the Packers looks like the way to go.

Prediction: Packers 24 – 49ers 17

Free Pick: Packers -6.5 (Confidence: 2.5/5) (L)

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS @ MINNESOTA VIKINGS -11

I was contemplating on taking the points here since 11 points is a lot against a team that actually puts up a decent amount of points each game.  The Seahawks are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games though.  They could have covered against Arizona last week, but the Cardinals picked off the Seahawks at the goal line before a score could give them the cover.  The Seahawks average 20.8 PPG and I think you can count them to score about 14-20 points in this game, so the question becomes, can the Vikings score 25-31 points in this game? Minnesota is ranked 2nd in the league in points scored with 30.1 PPG and they average 369 yards of offense per game.  Minnesota is 5-3-1 ATS.  I think the Vikings score 27 in this game and if the Seahawks score 17, the Seahawks end up in the money.  With the high spread here, I’m going to have to pass on this one.  I’ll say there’s a 51% chance the Vikings cover and a 49% chance the Seahawks cover, it is just way too close to call.

Free Pick: No Action

WASHINGTON REDSKINS @ DALLAS COWBOYS -11

What happened to Dallas last week?  They were coming off four straight wins and looking like a team that could challenge the Saints or Vikings for the NFC crown.  I’m going to have to say that last week was just the case of the Cowboys being a poor road team.  They’re still an incredible home team.  I love betting against the Redskins, they’re 2-6-1 ATS, and the Redskins covered last week solely from the QB Kyle Orton coming out of the game due to the injury and their backup goes 3/13, 13 yards, and 1 INT.

I think you can expect 24-31 points from the Cowboys, so the question becomes, how many points you can expect the Redskins to score.  Can they get the 13-20 points that they’ll need to cover?  Let’s cross out the Redskins 27 points from last week, that game doesn’t count!  The Redskins have scored 17 against ATL, 17 against PHI, 6 against KC, 17 against KC, 16 against TB, 14 against DET, 9 against STL, and 17 against NYG.  In 8 of the Redskins games, they’ve scored 17 points or less in all 8 of those games.  The Cowboys have scored 31.75 points in their 4 home games this season.  Based on these teams averages, I think you are likely to see a 31-17 game, which gives you a 3-point cover.  I think you can count on the Cowboys to hold the Redskisn to 17 or less and you can count on the Cowboys to score 28 points or more.  No doubt it’s close with the high spread, but I’m leaning towards the Cowboys.  The Cowboys don’t have any significant injuries to report and the Redskins will again be without TE Cooley.  Other injuries include RB Portis (doubtful), and DT Haynesworth (questionable).  Haynesworth’s injury occurred just last week, which is a huge boost to the Cowboys in their running game.

Prediction: Cowboys 31 – Redskins 17

Free Pick: Cowboys -11 (Confidence: 2/5) (L)

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS -11 @ TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS

The first think I looked at are the trends, which favor NO.  NO is 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 road games.  TB is 1-7 ATS the spread in their last 8 home games.  I love betting against the Bucs, but those spreads are getting high and the Bucs are coming off 2 straight covers, while the Saints have not covered the spread in their last 3 games (-11 vs. ATL, -12.5 vs. CAR, and -13.5 @ STL).  QB Josh Freeman took over for the Bucs and had a solid game last week: 16/24, 196 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT, and 36 rushing yards.  94% of the public is taking the Saints, but 4/5 “experts” at Covers.com like taking the +11 points on the Bucs.  With the Saints 36.8 PPG average, I don’t see how you bet against them.  They managed 28 points last week against the Rams, including 7 points via a kickoff return.  2 Drew Brees INTs cost them the cover in that game, but I was surprised the Rams were able to move the football effectively against their defense.  The Saints have scored more than 45 or more points in 4 games, including twice on the road, how ridiculous is that?  I think you can point on them to score 31 points, and possibly even more, and I doubt the Bucs will be able to score 20 points against them with their rookie QB.  However, the injuries to their defense have left them vulnerable.  CB Tracey Porter is out and with DT Sederick Ellis out, that hurts their run D.  Fortunately, Pro Bowl S Darren Sharper should return this week to help that D.  I still think you can count on the Bucs on scoring 20 or less and the Saints to score 31 or more, so I’m leaning towards giving up the points to take the Saints.  The Bucs are still 28th in points allowed (28.4 PPG) and 29th in yards allowed (379), so I have to go with the Saints.

Prediction: Saints 34 – Buccaneers 17

Free Pick: Saints -11 (Confidence: 3/5) (W)

ARIZONA CARDINALS -9 @ ST. LOUIS RAMS

The Rams are 4-5 ATS and 3-1 ATS in their last 4.  I’m quite surprised.  The Cardinals have been a good team to bet on recently too: 6-3 ATS and 5-1 ATS in their last 6.  The Cardinals offense is back as they’ve averaged 31 PPG in their last 3 games.  What is even more impressive with the Cardinals is how they’ve played on the road.  They are 4-0 on the road and have just been crushing teams.  41-21 in CHI, 24-7 in NYG, 27-3 in SEA, 31-17 in JAC.  With the Rams giving up 27.7 PPG and scoring just 11.1 PPG, I think you can expect the Cardinals to cover fairly comfortably in this one.  I’m anticipating the Cardinals to score 28-35 points, and the Rams to score less than 17.  I think this is a solid spread to take.  Only 5/9 “experts” at Covers.com are picking the Cardinals, but 94% of the public is riding them this week.

Prediction: Cardinals 31 – Rams 16

Free Pick: Cardinals -9 (Confidence: 4/5) (L)

NEW YORK JETS @ NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS -10.5

When the Patriots are handed a tough loss, they usually respond well.  They’re a perfect 5-0 at home, but just 3-2 ATS there.  NE is averaging 32 PPG in their last last 3, 32.8 PPG at home, and 28.8 PPG at home.  The Jets are 4-5 ATS this season and just 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games.  With Mark Sanchez throwing 12 INTs and just 9 TDs and completing just 53.5% of his passes, I’m beginning to like this matchup against Tom Brady.  When the Patriots faced the Jets earlier this season, it was in week 2 before Brady was 100%, and the Jets won 16-9.  That was also when the Jets defense was legit.  Since that time, the Jets defense has been hurting, especially after the loss of NT Kris Jenkins who was the key to their stellar run defense.  The Jags moved the football on the Jets with ease.  I think you can count on the Patriots scoring 27-31 points in this game, so they’ll have to hold the Jets to under 17 if you want them to cover.  I don’t like this game with the spread.  It’s a division game and it should be tight.  I think the Pats have the better chance of covering by being at home, being pissed off after last week’s loss, and Mark Sanchez likely throwing a pick or two.  The Jets could potentially hold the Patriots to 24 points and a mere 2 TDs could get them to cover, but I’m leaning towards the Patriots in this one and I’ll set their chances of covering the spread at 60-65%.  Again, this spread is just too high for me to take it.

Prediction: Patriots 31 – Jets 17

Free Pick: Patriots -10.5 (Confidence: 2/5) (W)

CINCINNATI BENGALS -9.5 @ OAKLAND RAIDERS

The Raiders managed just 10 points against the Chiefs.  If the Bengals could hold the Steelers to just 4 FGs and 0 TDs, they should hold the Raiders to 10 points or less, especially since the Raiders average just 9.8 PPG.  It shouldn’t be a problem for the Bengals to score 20 points here.  Carson Palmer has it going on and can give the Bengals their 8th win of the season and in control of their own destiny.  I’ll take Carson Palmers 14/7 TD to INT ratio over JaMarcus Rusell’s 2 TD/9 INT ratio any day. JaMarcus will be benched anway in favor of Gradkowski, but he was his stat lines don’t get much better than Russell: 5/9, 49 yards, 0 TDs, 2 INTs.  The Bengals just need to stop the Raiders running game and they had no problems stopping the Steelers.  5/9 “experts” at Covers.com are favoring the Raiders, which is odd, but 95% of the public is on the Bengals.

Prediction: Bengals 23 – Raiders 9

Free Pick: Bengals -9.5 (Confidence: 4/5) (L)

SAN DIEGO CHARGERS -2.5 @ DENVER BRONCOS

The Broncos are on a three-game losing streak, but the good news is that QB Kyle Orton is probable for them in this game.  San Diego is back to looking legit again with 4-straight wins, going 3-1 ATS in that span.  The OAK and KC wins are nothing to brag about, but beating the Giants on the road, well as the Eagles were both impressive wins.  The defense is holding their own and their offense is clicking the way it should with LT, Darren Sproles, Antonio Gates, and Vincent Jackson.

Denver’s stellar defense from the first 6 games, has broken down in their last 3 games.  They’ve now given up 28.3 PPG and 351.7 YPG in their last 3 losses, while their offense has scored just 11.3 PPG and managed just 249.0YPG.  I think this is a very favorable spread to take San Diego.  I’m not concerned with these teams first 6 games of the season since I care about “what have you done for me lately.”

With both teams at 6-3, the AFC West is up for grabs, and San Diego is finally getting the fire in their belly to emerge out of the division as champions.  Another thing to keep in mind, the Broncos defeated the Chargers in San Diego on Monday Night 34-23 during week 5 in the NFL, but keep in mind that 2 TDs were from Eddie Royal on a kickoff and a punt return.  I don’t expect that to occur again.  Without those TDs, the Chargers would have won that one 23-20.  Another huge advantage for the Chargers is the injuries to QB Kyle Orton and WR Brandon Marshall (banged up neck and back, but likely to play).

Update: With QB Kyle Orton out, the spread has moved from -2.5 to 5.  Good thing I got this one locked in.  With Orton out for Denver, I’m quite confident in the Chargers and have moved the game to #2 in my top 5.

Prediction: Chargers 24 – Broncos 13

Free Pick: Chargers -2.5 (Confidence: 4/5) (W)

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES -3 @ CHICAGO BEARS

I’m an Eagles fan and severely disappointed in them after 2 losses.  I warned you that the Eagles suck when they play on the west coast last week and we saw that play out yet again. The Eagles lost to the Bears last year in an epic game and that’s why this rematch is featured on Sunday Night.  The Bears looked pretty pathetic last week against the 49ers and were also severely disappointing against the Cardinals, Bengals, and Falcons from previous weeks.  I like the Eagles chances in this one.  88% of the money is on the Eagles here and Covers.com has 7/8 of their experts taking the Birds.  Their inability to get into the endzone last week is extremely discouraging.  You’re not going to beat the Chargers kicking field goals once you get inside the 10.  The Eagles defense was also dissappointing last week, but I think you can blaim that on the trip out west.  I think you’ll see a much more focused Eagles team on Sunday night knowing that this loss could significantly hamper their playoff aspirations.

Prediction: Eagles 24 – Bears 20

Free Pick: Eagles -3 (Confidence:3/5, DISCLAIMER: I’m an Eagles fan) (W)

TENNESSEE TITANS @ HOUSTON TEXANS -4.5

The Titans are on the right track, but the Texans will be at home off the bye week, and have been also been playing at a high level lately. The Texans are 3-1 in their last 4 and 3-0-1 ATS in that time. Their sole loss was to the Colts by a mere FG. The Texans running game used to be their weakness, but they’ve averaged just 76 rushing yards per game in their last 3 games.  I don’t like this spread at all.  I’m counting on the Texans to win, but it may be by a mere FG or a TD, it’s just a tough call to make.  55% of the public’s money is favoring the Titans and that’s who I’m leaning towards in this one.  In what should be a close game, I’ll take the +4.5 and count on Chris Johnson to deliver another solid game against a Houston team that he destroyed earlier in the season.  However, although Chris Johnson won the battle, it was Andre Johnson who won the war as he helped his team outduel the Titans when they played in week 3 in Tennessee and the Texans won 34-31.

Prediction: Texans 24 – Titans 20

Free Pick: Titans +4.5 (Confidence: 1/5) (W)

TOP 5 SPREADS RANKED BY STRENGTH:

There are 8 spreads I would consider and the rest look like garbage.  I’m going to continue trying to go after the crappy teams like the Rams, Raiders, Chiefs, Bucs, and Browns.  The Colts -1 just seems too favorable to pass up with the injuries on that Ravens D.

1.) Steelers -10 over CHIEFS (L)

2.) Chargers -2.5 over BRONCOS ( * QB Orton will not play) (W)

3.) Bengals -9.5 over RAIDERS (L)

4.) Cardinals -9 over RAMS (L)

5.) Colts -1 over RAVENS (W)

Other Picks to Consider: LIONS -3.5 over BROWNS (* Out of top 5 due to LB Sims being out) (L), Saints -11 over BUCCANEERS (W), PACKERS -6.5 over 49ers (L)

DISCLAIMER: If you bet on these picks just because we do, you may get punched in the face by Sinbad in a rehabilitation facility (reference to It’s Always Sunny in Philadelphia, Season 4).