My Fantasy Football Draft Results

Round 1: I like my draft very much (I think I have a top 3 team), but not thrilled with it.   I wasn’t happy  drawing the 7th pick.  I would have loved to get my hands on LT, BW, or AP.  They were taken and then Tom Brady, Joseph Addai, and Steven Jackson came off the board, so Randy Moss was a no-brainer at #7 to me.  You can’t argue another year with the best quarterback in the league won’t produce good numbers.  He put up 23 TDs and nearly 1,500 yards (1,493 to be exact) last season.  I don’t expect him to get those kind of numbers again, but a 1,300 yard, 16 TD season is more than reasonable to warrant the 7th pick in the draft.

Round 2: I was planning on taking a top RB or Brady with my first-round pick, but after taking the undisputed top WR in the draft, I felt compelled to take a top RB in round 2.  At 14, it was too early jump on an injured Manning, Tony Romo, or Drew Brees.  In fact, Manning and Romo were taken before me, so it was Drew Brees or a top RB.  I was thinking in my mind, worse case scenario of passing on Brees is to take Kurt Warner late (25 TDs in 11 starts) and that’s what I did in the 6th round.  I went ahead and took Clinton Portis since Marion Barber, Ryan Grant, and Larry Johnson were off the board by now.  I’m expecting 1,200 rushing yards, 300 receiving yards, and 10 TDs from Portis.  T.O. and Reggie Wayne were taken after me and I couldn’t go WR-WR.

Round 3: With the third pick, I had to go best available and that happened to be T.J. Houshmanzadeh.  Romo, Brees, and McNabb were taken by now, so it’s jump on Carson Palmer a bit early or wait for a QB.  I’m not sold on Palmer with a poor OL and Chad Johnson risking a season-ending injury.  With the prospect of Chad Johnson going down, that will mean only more looks to T.J., who put up a nice 12 TDs 1,100 yards last season.

Round 4: In round 4, Jason Witten was taken right before me, so I decided to jump on an elite TE. Most people get poor TEs in the later rounds, so you’re going to want at TE that can put up elite WR numbers.  Since Witten was taken, it was either Antonio Gates or Tony Gonzalez.  Despite the toe injury, I think Gates will be back to 100% soon.  He’ll definitely get looks in the end zone and should match his numbers of 984 yards and 9 TDs.  I was going to take Gonzalez, but his red-zone production was only 5 TDs last season.  Steve Smith and Plaxico Burress were taken right before me and Gates puts up similar numbers.  After my pick, McGahee, Holt, Willie Parker, and Brandon Marshall were taken.  I wanted to avoid McGahee and Parker like the pleague due to MchGahee’s offseason surgery and Mendenhall taking away Parker’s goal-line carries.  I like Brandon Marshall a lot, but I would have waited until the 5th round on him.  I’m happy with my 4th pick and next round I could get a great RB2 and Edge was on my radar.

Round 5: I’m starting to panic without a top QB.  I was hoping on gettomg Romo or Brees in round 3, but they were taken in round 2.  I still see a few QBs to pick from on the board, so I decide to get another top RB before they’re off the board before pulling the trigger on a QB.  I go with Edgerrin James. Most people think he’s lost a step, but they’re misguided.  Edge continues to produce: 1,200+ rushing yards and 7 TDs last season with another 200 in the air to boot.  His 2006 numbers were similar and if he can return to 2005 form, that would mean 1,800+ yards and double-digit TDs. Second year first-round RT Levi Brown will only help his game.  He’s higher on my board than Brandon Jacobs and Darren McFadden, who were just picked before me, so Edge was at the perfect spot for me.  I also like Edge more than McGahee and Willie Parker, who were taken in the 4th round.

Round 6: Kurt Warner falls into my lap as planned.  I was glad the person drafting before me opted for Derek Anderson instead of Warner.  I smell bust for Anderson and Warner is throwing to two of the premier WRs in the league (Fitzgerald and Boldin).  That also cancels out any TDs thrown to those two when you’re up against them.  I expect Leinart to remain on the bench since Warner is clearly still ahead of him and has already been announced the team’s starter and he’s earned it.  3,400 yards and 27 TDs in 11 starts last season.  Compare that to Brees 4,400 yards and 28 TDs in 16 starts last season and it looks like a steal to me.  He put up basically the same amount of TDs in 5 less games.  Oh, and they both have 89.0 passer ratings.  I’m loving Kurt Warner in the 6th round.  Just as planned if I didn’t get my top 5 QB in the early rounds.

Round 7: A reliable backup RB (afterall, most of the WRs after this point are a crapshoot) is what I need and Earnest Graham is a RB that I wanted to get in later rounds.  I picked him up mid-season last year and he was the man.  900+ yards and 10 TDs in 10 starts (15 total games) and as the starting RB this season, his numbers project quite nicely.

Round 8: I need a third WR and I had a few guys on my target.  Hines Ward was just taken and I have Donald Driver higher on my draft chart.  I had him on my team last year and probably spent a 5th or 6th round pick on him.  He’s going to get you 80 receptions and 1,000 yards guaranteed.  Greg Jennings emerged as the Packers favorite deep threat and he was taken in the 5th round.  Driver will get more receptions and more yards, but his TD numbers dropped off last season to just 2 TDs, but he’s averaged over 1,200 yards and 7 TDs the prior 3 seasons.  In my opinion, he was a steal in the 8th round.

Round 9: If I’ve learned one thing about fantasy football last year, it’s get as many reliable RBs as you can.  I started last season with Shaun Alexander and Travis Henry as my backs.  I figured Alexander would bounce back to the MVP form he had the prior season and be atop the league in rushing yards once again.  He was a total flop.  Travis Henry got a ton of yards early in the season and was shaping up to be a solid pick, but he rarely saw the endzone and was then nailed with a suspension.  (I also managed to draft Brady in the 3rd last season, which kept me in the hunt).  Luckily, I was able to add Ryan Grant, Earnest Graham, and Justin Fargas all off the undrafted players list last season and they all went on to have monster years.  With my 9th round pick, I took Fred Taylor, who will give you 1,000 yards this season despite splitting carries with Maurice Jones-Drew.  With 1,200 yards and 5 TDs last season, this looks like a great value pick.

Round 10: I now wanted to boost my receiving corp since I now have 4 RBs that I love.  I wanted to go with a proven veteran who will give you a 1,000 yard season.  I was thinking of  going for Roddy White after his breakout but unknown season last year, but he was taken just a few picks before me, which made the Joey Galloway pick a little easier.  3 consecutive 1,000+ 6 TD+ seasons with the Bucs — lightning can strike 4 times, right?  I was thinking of taking DeSean Jackson since Kevin Curtis is recovering from a sports hernia, so DeSean will get a lot more looks early this season, but I figured I could get him later, perhaps in Round 12.  I’d rather go with the proven vet, before taking the unproven, but promising rookie.  I’m also an Eagles fan, so that’s why I wanted DeSean the most.   Well, I went with Galloway and DeSean was snatched up a few picks later.

Round 11: I saw Rashard Mendenhall still on the board and I was licking my chops at the possibility of getting him.  Julius Jones was taken before him, which gave me a giggle — Julius Jones, seriously?  Rudi Johnson and Matt Forte were alslo taken, which made Mendenhall a no-brainer right now.  Stewart Johnson was also long gone (taken in the 7th round).  Mendenhall will take all of Willie Parkers red zone TDs away and he will get the majority of carries later in the season.  He has the potentional of being a top 15 back by the end of the season.  Another late round steal, which I’m pretty shocked about.

Round 12: Ted Ginn Jr. was my personal late-round steal.  He was a guy I really wanted to get my hands on later.  If I wasn’t going to get DeSean Jackson, I’m going Ted Ginn because I think he’ll put up bigger numbers than DeSean Jackson.  Last season he only had 420 yards and 2 TDs.  This year I can pretty much guarantee you that he will double those numbers.  I’m expecting 900+ yards, 6 TDs.  He started off last season injured and got better each week.  I expect Chad Pennington to rely on Ginn a lot this seaon and Ricky Willaims/Ronnie Brown should keep defenses honest.  He was a top 10 pick in 2007 and the 2nd WR taken after Calvin Johnson.  He didn’t go that high in the draft by accident.

Round 13: I need a backup QB and I was hoping that Brett Favre could slide, but he was taken in round 11.  It was between Jay Cutler and Jake Delhomme at this point and I love Cutler’s upside.  3,500 TDs, 20 TDs, 14 INTs last season.  He should be a reliable backup.  I’m still expecting Warner to be the Cardinals guy all season long, but if something should happen, I’m not nervous with Cutler as my QB.  I expect Cutler to bump up his numbers to close to 4,000 yards and 24 TDs now that he’s in his 3rd season and has a talented, young receiver (Brandon Marshall) to throw to. Unfortunately, the Broncos lost Javon Walker, but they picked up Darrell Jackson and Keary Colbert, who were nice free-agent additions and drafted speadster Eddie Royal in the draft.  You also have Stokely, so the receivers should be good enough for Cutler to work with.

Round 14: I took Deuce McCallister here.  Last season he was a 3rd round pick, but had a season-ending injury early.  Best case scenario: he returns to his 2006 form and produces 1,200 yards and 10 TDs.  Worst case scenario: he’s nothing more than my #6 RB.

Round 15: With 3 more rounds left, I guess it’s time to pick a defense right?  I didn’t see much disparity between the defenses this year.  San Diego and Dallas look impressive and they both went early (rounds 7 and 9 respecitvely), but after that, all defenses are basically the same: Minnesota, Chicago, Green Bay, Philadelphia, Jacksonville, Tampa Bay, Pittsburgh, Buffalo, Tennessee — you can take you’re pick: they’ll each average you about 6-8 points a week, so I’m not beating myself up over not grabbing another D early.  Right now, it’s between Tampa Bay and Jacksonville since a handful of those defenses mentioned were taken in Round 14.  I like Ronde Barber, Gaines Adams, and Derrick Brooks on the defensive side of the ball.  The Bucs don’t give up many points and their defensive scheme is as good and consistent as any in the league.  It also helps that they play the Falcons and Panthers twice a year.  The Falcons can’t do anything on offense and the Panthers offensive line will give up a lot of sacks since they lost two of their starting OTs.  This preseason, the Bucs were also ranked #1 this in yards allowed and #3 in points allowed.  Last season, they were #2 in yards allowed and #3 in points allowed.  They were #1 last season in forced fumbles and fumble recoveries.  They will have to get more sacks though (only 33 last year) and I’m hoping Gaines Adams will deliver those.

Round 16: I took Bironas’ bionic leg.  There was only 1 player left on the board that I wanted and I knew I could get him in round 17.

Round 17: Reggie Williams was the last guy on the board who I thought would be a steal.  Only 629 yards last season, but he did produce 10 TDs and his numbers will only get bigger this season with Garrard becoming more experienced and Matt Jones/Jerry Porter starting opposite of him.  Porter is actually #5 on the depth chart and Reggie Williams is #1.