Arizona vs. Iowa Pick Against the Spread

Posted by Vegas Martin in College Football Picks on September 17th, 2010 | Comment »

Is Nick Foles ready to shine in the spotlight against a tough defense?

IOWA HAWKEYES @ ARIZONA WILDCATS (+2) — 10:30 ESPN

Both Brandon and The Kid like Arizona and I’m with them. Two factors here: it’s a home-dog play and it’s a revenge game for Arizona, who was beaten by Iowa 27-17 last year in week 3 when this game was in Iowa. The change in location will be key this time around as Arizona was 4-0 ATS at home against conference foes last year. Although a Big 10 team is rolling into town, I’m saying this because with covers against Oregon (-5.5), California (+7.5), Stanford (+4), and Washington (+33), they had an impressive home resume last year.

QB Nick Foles is really coming along and is ready to have a breakout year. Although he’s only faced Toledo and The Citadel, he’s completed 83.1% of his passes. Arizona is averaging over 500 yards of offense and has outscored their two opponents 92-8. Iowa’s offense has equally been impress with their two blowout wins, averaging 457 yards per game and 37 points per game.

In the Iowa game last year, Foles only got 11 passing attempts. It wasn’t until after that game that Foles became the man at QB. Another player to watch is the elusive RB Nic Grisby who has already piled up 160 yards and 5 TDs on just 19 attempts — a ridiculous 8.4 YPC. Iowa is going to have a tough time matching up with Foles and the weapons that he has around him. Foles has two very talented 6’4″ receivers in Juron Criner and Delashaun Dean.

On defense, Iowa will need another big game out of #94 DE Adrian Clayborn if they want a shot at winning this one. This 6’4″ 285 pound beast was tied for 9th in sacks last year with 11.5 sacks and was ranked 10th in tackles for a loss with 20. Clayborn was a key part to Iowa’s 10th ranked defense that held opponents to just 15 points per game last year. Iowa held GT to 14, Penn State to 10, Michigan State to 13, and Wisconsin to 10 last year. Those are some impressive numbers. Arizona’s defense isn’t too shabby either (ranked 21st last year). Their impressive pass rush recorded 34 sacks last year. That’s not going to pose well for an Iowa team that has just 2 offensive linemen returning.

However, there’s one trend that is not in Arizona’s favor. Arizona is just 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 against the Big 10, while Iowa is 7-1 ATS in their last 8 road games. Iowa’s D is too good for me to jump all over this one, but if you want to take Brandon and The Kid’s advice, then Arizona is your play. Arizona’s passing game should be the key in this one and will likely lead them to a win as long as Arizona’s offensive line holds their own against that tough Iowa defensive line.

Prediction: Arizona 24 – Iowa 20

Pick Against the Spread: Arizona +2 (Confidence: 2/5)