Today’s Play: Ravens

Ravens baby... Ravens!

Hope everyone had a nice college Saturday going into NFL Sunday. I had two nice hits thanks to Nevada (-4) and Stanford (-4.5). My other play on Saturday was South Carolina (+3). South Carolina had 4 turnovers in the 4th quarter after being in the driver’s seat the entire game and failed to cover. It was the right pick, but I guess you can’t win ’em all. I’ll take two out of three any day. Those were the three games that I played on Saturday.

I also recommended Kansas and Florida State in my write up and those picks hit. There were also some other heartbreakers mixed in those picks. Good thing I played TCU (-18) small on Friday since they won by 17 points after the extra point on TCU’s last TD was missed. That wasn’t fixed, right? Oregon also missed the -11.5 cover by a half point. I also kept everyone away from Alabama (-7). I should have even come out a said that Arkansas (+7) was the play, but not many people have made a living betting against college football’s best teams. Ohio State also covered the 42.5 points against Eastern Michigan, 73-20.

Enough about college football. Today I’m liking the Ravens (-11) at 1:00. The line opened at -11, which is where I grabbed it, but has moved to -12.5. Why do I like the Ravens? Well I’m not going to be crazy enough to put my money on any road favorites. There’s over a half dozen home dogs this week, so we’ll really see how well the home dog theory works out.

What worked last week? Home teams, home teams, home teams. We played Atlanta (-6.5) and Green Bay (-13) last week and had two big winners. Naturaly, I’m looking for the best home team to take this week and that is none other than the Ravens over the Browns. This is the Ravens HOME OPENER. They’re going to be pumped to roll over the Browns in front of their home fans.

The Browns are a complete joke. The Browns will be hard-pressed to move the football now that QB Jake Delhomme and RB Jerome Harrison are out along with WR Brian Robiskie. Seneca Wallace will get the start for the Browns. The Browns are missing a lot of their key players on offense and they’ve also without their best defensive player, NT Shaun Rodgers. If the Browns score, it will have to come from Joshua Cribbs and he’s questionable with a banged up ankle. He should be limited by the Ravens D. No worries there, although that Seneca Wallace is crafty. Wallace had a 73.2 QB rating last week against the Chiefs, completing just 51.6% of this passes for 229 yards, 1 TD, and 1 INT. Against the Ravens, I am not worried.

I don’t see how the Brown score more than 6 points. The max they score is maybe 13. Ravens will easily put up 24-31 points. I see this one ending 30-6, 31-10, 27-3. Something like that. Ravens (-11) is my play this week. The line is now (-12.5) and I think you’re still good there since I see the Ravens winning this one by 17-24 points.

Good luck gentlemen. As always, do your own due diligence.