NFL Week 4 Predictions and Picks Against the Spread (1:00 Games)

I'm liking ATL (-7) over SF and TEN (-6.5) over DEN this week at 1:00. An ATL/TEN teaser looks promising.

The theme of week 1 was don’t bet against home dogs, we cleaned up in week 2 with two home winners (GB and ATL), then last week we felt the wrath of the road dogs. Road dogs went 7-1 ATS. My 1:00 play was the Ravens (-11) which missed by 4. At 4:00 I chose to bet against the Jaguars at home and took my team the Philadelphia Eagles (-3) because I was that damn confident in Michael Vick and it made up for the Ravens loss. If I didn’t play the Eagles, I would have taken the Colts, which I plugged so hopefully you found some winners on Sunday. I also told you so stay away from the MNF game which was golden advice. Let’s week what games are in tap in week 4.

DENVER BRONCOS @ TENNESSEE TITANS (-6.5)

I’ll definitely pick the Titans here. I don’t see the Broncos having an answer for Chris Johnson and when the Titans have been forced to throw the ball, Vince Young has done very well. Young hasn’t had to throw the ball more than 20 times in a game this season thanks to CJ. Other than the Pittsburgh loss, he posted QB ratings of 105 and 142. I expect another solid game while CJ carries the offense to another W at home. Titans D has also been very strong and should give the Broncos fits. Denver is disadvantaged with the long road trip and playing at 1:00. West coast teams struggle on the road in 1:00 games and I love playing that angle and will have more to say on this factor later (see SF @ ATL).

Prediction: Titans 24 – Broncos 16

Pick Against the Spread: Titans -6.5 (Confidence: 3/5)

Update: Confidence taken down a peg. A. JAY is making valid points. Denver has a real shot to cover with Kyle Orton on fire, but I’ll still stand by the Titans. It’ll be a competitive game, I just see TEN winning by 7-13. We will see.

10/3 Update: I’m almost starting to lean Broncos here, but I’m just not going to switch the pick. Broncos are 4-1 ATS in their last 5. Titans are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 as a favorite. Generally, the Titans are just not a good team to bet on when they’re giving up lot of points (anything over 3). Without a Broncos running game (Knowshon out), Laurence Maroney will get the start and he had 12 carries for 24 yards last week. Without a balanced attack, I don’t see Kyle Orton having the type of success he had last week. I’ll stay with the Titans.

BALTIMORE RAVENS @ PITTSBURGH STEELERS (-1)

As an Eagles fan, I want to see the Steelers lose every week and that was the reason I picked them to lose last week but I said the pick was 110% bias. How many people started Charlie Batch last week in their fantasy league? What a performance. Steelers are looking phenomenal without Big Ben. Ravens rush defense was a joke last week, giving well over 100 yards to Peyton Hillis. Hillis is a solid player, but come on Ravens, you’re better than that. With another run D performance like that and this is the Steelers game. Ravens run D is ranked a surprising 22nd this year, but they do boast at having the 1st ranked passing D. I’ll take the Steelers at home where they usually come out on top. Defense and running the football, that’s what the Steelers do.

Prediction: Steelers 17 – Ravens 13

Pick Against the Spread: Steelers -1 (Confidence: 2/5)

CINCINNATI BENGALS (-3) @ CLEVELAND BROWNS

The Bengals got the job against the Panthers last week on the road. Browns fought in there with Ravens and covered, but they still remain winless on the year. I’ll take the Bengals again this week. Their defense is looking more like their 2009 form where they had a top 10 run and pass defense. Carson Palmer has struggled so he’ll need to get his act together if the Bengals want to win another game on the road.

Prediction: Bengals 24 – Browns 17

Pick Against the Spread: Bengals -3 (Confidence: 3/5)

DETROIT LIONS @ GREEN BAY PACKERS (-14.5)

The Lions will have Shaun Hill starting again. this week Since the Lions only scored 10 on the road against the tough Vikings defense, you should expect them to post 10-13 points against this tough Packers defense. I’m looking for the Packers to roll over the Lions in order to avenge their tough Monday Night loss where penalties and a stupid turnover on their last drive got the best of them. If the Packers score 4 TDs, they should cover. 1 TD a quarter against the Lions? I think Aaron Rodgers could get that done, don’t you? He lit up the Lions last year (706 yards, 5 TDs, 1 INT in two games against the Lions). I hate high spreads, especially in the NFL, which gives the pick a 3/5 rather than 4/5 but Packers covered the 14 points against Buffalo at home and the results should be similar. Only concern is Jahvid Best cutting one lose. With the Packers front 7, I’m not too concerned.

Prediction: Packers 31 – Lions 10

Pick Against the Spread: Packers -14.5 (Confidence: 3/5)

CAROLINA PANTHERS @ NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (-13.5)

The Panthers have looked horrible. Panthers are averaging just 10.7 PPG and giving up almost 24 PPG.  However, the Saints have been terrible against the spread this year (0-3). They weren’t good against the spread last year either since they’re usually giving up double digits. Panthers are 7-1 ATS against teams with a winning record too. In last year’s battle, Saints won 30-20 in the Dome, giving the Panthers +12.5 the cover.  They beat the Saints twice in 2008 too. The Panthers know how to play their division foe. Just 7 points against the Bengals and Bucs though? That’s weak. Jimmy Clausin was 23/48 for 247 yards, 0 TDs and 2 INTs last week. I don’t see Clausen having a very good game on the road in his 2nd start in a tough environment. I’m looking for reasons to take the points here. I wanted this to be a spot where I recommend taking the points, but I just can’t do it in good conscious. I see the Panthers scoring just 13 points and the Saints should post 24+. However, if there is one team that does cover the spread this week, I would be willing to bet that it ends up being the Panthers.

Prediction: Saints 27 – Panthers 10

Pick Against the Spread: Saints -13.5 (Confidence: 2/5)

10/3 Update: I’m going to change this pick to Panthers +13.5 (Confidence 1/5). With Reggie Bush and Pierre Thomas out, Drew Brees will have to air it out more often, which you would think is a good thing, but I think the one-dimensionalism hurts them. Drew Brees is also banged up, so a more conservative quick, short-pass approach may be employed thus eating up clock and giving the Saints less of a chance to cover the 13 points. The Panthers need to get their run game going in order to cover and DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart have had success against the Saints in the past. The Saints also have 4 starters in their secondary banged up. Darren Sharper is out and Randall Gay, Roman Harper, and Tracey Porter are all playing with injuries and are listed as questionable. I’m leaning Panthers +13.5.

SAN FRANSISCO 49ERS @ ATLANTA FALCONS (-7)

I’ll take the Falcons here. Falcons are ridiculous at home and the 49ers have been awful on the road. With the 49ers road losses to the Seahawks and Chiefs, how can you not expect them to get stopped by the Falcons here? Another great reason to play this game: 49ers are a West Coast team playing an East Coast team at 1:00. I said that was a key reason to take the Falcons in week 2 over the Cardinals and look at what happened — the Falcons steamrolled over the Cardinals. I see the Falcons covering this one in comfortable fashion. Matt Ryan is just too good at home and the 49ers have really struggled on the road.

Prediction: Atlanta Falcons 27 – San Fransisco 49ers 13

Pick Against the Spread: Atlanta Falcons -7 (Confidence: 4/5)

10/3 Update: There are people out there saying the 49ers will win outright and/or cover since this is a “must win” game for them since they’re 0-3. Not every 0-3 team goes 1-3 just because they have 3 losses. I’m sure you’ll see a tremendous effort from them, but the Falcons are an extremely talented team on both sides of the ball, play great at home, and of course  a west cost team playing an east coast team at 1:00 cannot be under-emphasized in this game. Others are saying this is a potential “hangover game” for the Falcons since they topped the Saints on the road in overtime and may come into this one underestimating their opponent. I’m not buying into the “must win” philosophy or the “hangover” theory for taking the 49ers here, but you’ve been warned about the traps if you do take this game.

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (-2) @ ST. LOUIS RAMS

I’m taking the Rams. Oh yeah!  I haven’t said that for the better part of a decade. Don’t get me wrong, I’m not recommending putting money on them, but I’ll take them in the pick ’em league. Steven Jackson has a strained groin and is day-to-day, but Kenneth Darby did just fine against the Redskins. The Seahakws are a terrible road team. 1-7 ATS on the road last year and they got smoked on the road by the Broncos in week 2. Although they’re strong at home, they just cannot get their act together on the road. The west coast team playing on the east coast at 1:00 is also a factor here. Give me the Rams at home.

Prediction: Rams 20 – Seahawks 17

Pick Against the Spread: Rams +2 (Confidence: 2/5)

NEW YORK JETS (-5.5) @ BUFFALO BILLS

Jets had no problem handling the Dolphins on the road on Sunday Night. The Jets are looking really good after their opening week loss to the Ravens on Monday Night. Revis or no Revis, the Jets can get it done. The Bills have been terrible the first two weeks and now we’re left scratching our heads wondering how they posted 30 points against the Patriots on the road after scoring 10 and 7 in their first two game. 7 points came by way of a C.J. Spiller kickoff return last week, so their offense really only put up 23. Ryan Fitzpartrick actually had a solid game though, completing 71% of his passes for 247 yards, 2 TDs and 2 INTs (92.4 QB rating). Solid numbers from the Hardvard grad. I don’t see him repeating that type of performance against the Jets. I expect him to return to the QB he was with the Bengals and stunk it up in 2008. If Revis was in, I would take the Jets all the way, but Revis remains questionable. Despite the loss of Revis, I’ll still take the Jets here. However, you deserved to be warned of the home dog as a Jets win by a score of 24-20 would not shock me in the least.

Prediction: Jets 24 – Bills 13

Pick Against the Spread: Jets -5.5 (Confidence: 3/5)

CONCLUSION

Another week where I’m taking the favorites across the board (except the Rams and Panthers) and you know damn well that every favorite will not cover. I think the Panthers +13.5 have the best shot to cover against the Saints, but I’m not going to bet on Jimmy Clausin @ New Orleans in his 2nd career start even if he is getting 13.5 points. The Panthers have averaged 10 PPG and their defense has not been good. Lions have a good shot at covering with 14.5 points, but I just don’t see it happening on the road in Green Bay with Shaun Hill. Bills at +5.5 as home dogs could spoil a lot of peoples day if a late score in the 4th gets them the cover.

I’m going to stick to picking home teams this week and avoid high spreads, which is why I find the Titans (-6.5) over the Broncos and Falcons (-7) over the 49ers appealing. I’ll make it official and say those are my top two favorite plays at 1:00. However, sometimes we’re just left scratching our heads after the week is over and everyone gets fooled. Do your own due diligence gentlemen. Additionally a straight-up pick ’em teaser with Titans and Falcons looks very promising so points don’t have to be a factor.

4:00 games to be released tomorrow. Good luck everyone.

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This pick calls for the DIRTY BIRD