Week 6 – Picks Against the Spread (2012)

In week 5, I came out even. I split my big plays with the Bears and Texans. I split my teasers with Bears/Texans and Vikings/Packers. At first glance, week 6 looks like a tough week. Almost every spread is the 3.5-point variety where I see merit in both sides of the coin. I’m looking forward to Brandon’s college picks. He’s gone 6-2 ATS in the last two weeks. Let’s get after it fellas. Be sure to vote in the poll below.

BALTIMORE RAVENS (-3.5) over Dallas Cowboys — Confidence: 8/10 — The Ravens are typically dominant at home. Buy a half-point if you can and go with the Ravens here. Only concern is that Dallas is coming off the bye week after getting rocked by the Bears and you may see a rebound game from them. However, Dallas is still overrated in my opinion. Ravens should be the play at home. Don’t let the Ravens underperformance last week mess with your head too much. The Ravens can play poorly on the road. They’re a completely different animal at home.

Pittsburgh Steelers (-5.5) over TENNESSEE TITANS — Confidence: 7/10 — The Titans are in shambles. They’ve gotten killed by the Texans and Vikings in the last two weeks, but both games were on the road. They now return home where they beat the Lions 44-41. I don’t think they have enough in them to beat the Steelers. Chris Johnson has got no heart — 2.9 YPC and 0 TD! Pathetic. The Titans should yank that contract from him. I’m going to play the Steelers moneyline so the points aren’t a factor. The Titans are desperate for a win, but I don’t see them beating the Steelers. Mendenhall is back and looking good. I won’t be surprised if the Steelers slide by with a field goal win though. Steelers are 2-0 SU and ATS vs. Titans in the last 3 seasons. I’ll give the Titans a chance to cover the spread, but I’m 80% confident that the Steelers will win outright. Stick with the moneyline so the points aren’t a factor. I would like this game a lot more if it wasn’t on Thursday Night, but since the Steelers are coming off the bye in week 4, it shouldn’t be too bad for them to travel to Nashville on the short week from Pittsburgh.

ATLANTA FALCONS (-9.5) over Oakland Raiders — Confidence: 7/10 — Raiders are another team in shambles. The bye week couldn’t have come at a better time, but they now have to go on the road to face the 5-0 Falcons. The last time they went on the road, they got obliterated by Peyton Manning. Their secondary is weak and Matt Ryan stands to be the beneficiary of that this week. There could be a blow out brewing in the Georgia Dome on Sunday. This game could be teased with another game of your choice (Ravens +3.5 or Steelers +1.5).

New England Patriots (-3.5) over SEATTLE SEAHAWKS — Confidence: 7/10 — We’ll see first-hand just how much the 12th man means to the Seahawks. After the controversial Green Bay game, they’ve gone on the road twice and got the W last week over the Panthers by holding them to 12 points. Their defense is legit and I’ll be curious to see just how well they will do against the Patriots. I’m not worried about the home dog here as the Patriots ousted the Bill of their pride by demolishing the Bills 52-28 on their home turf.

NEW YORK JETS (-3) over Indianapolis Colts — Confidence: 6/10 — Desperation is a stinky cologne. We saw a desperate Jets team last week that gave the Texans a fight to keep their undefeated streak. The Jets did not lay down that game. They inserted Antonio Cromartie in the offense, attempted an onside kick in the 3rd quarter, the defense played inspired, and their unknown backup WRs stepped up. The Colts are coming off an impressive win over the Packers, coming back from a 21-3 hole going into the half. Andrew Luck is looking like the real deal. They’ve played three straight weeks at home and now have to go on the road. A let-down game for the Colts is in store my friends.

Cincinnati Bengals (-1.5) over CLEVELAND BROWNS — Confidence: 5/10 — Vegas has a ton of confidence in the Browns, which is why I’m avoiding this game. The Browns put up a nice fight when they faced the Bengals earlier this season. Bengals won 34-27. I was not expecting the Browns to score more than 17 max. I’m taking Bengals in the pick ’em league, but this game screams suckers pick. If Vegas wanted more money on the Browns, they would spot them 3 points instead of 1.5. The Browns are the Browns though and they should be destined for 0-6 and the 1st pick in the 2013 NFL Draft.

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (-4.5) over Detroit Lions — Confidence: 5/10 — I’m an Eagles fan. Vegas just loves the Eagles, I just don’t get it. Maybe I’m just bitter after the Eagles loss to the Steelers thanks to Vick fumbling the football at the goalline when he barely got hit. Maybe they see the Lions defense as a huge liability. This is a game that should be won by the Eagles. Only threat is Calvin Johnson and the Eagles have two capable corners to cover him. Can Vick finally play a good game or at least a game without producing a turnover? Please? If Vick blows this game, fans will be calling for Nick Foles.

MIAMI DOLPHINS (-3.5) over St. Louis Rams — Confidence: 5/10 — This is a tough one. My first thought here is under and the under is at a low 37.5. Miami has impressed me. Their defense got them the win over the Bengals and they nearly beat both the Jets and the Cardinals. The Rams have a solid defense themselves. I would like the Rams a lot more if they still had Danny Amendola. Once Amendola was out, Sam Bradford struggled big time. If you want to play this one I say you pad the line by adding the points to the Rams (+10.5) or Dolphins (+3.5) based on your preference to pair with the Under 44.5. They’ll likely both hit. I don’t see this game going over 24-20. I think a likely outcome is 16-13 Dolphins, but their offense has been gaining some momentum so I’ll predict a Miami win by the score of 20-13.

Buffalo Bills (+4.5) over ARIZONA CARDINALS — Confidence: 5/10 — The Bills looked awful last week, but I’m going to have to take the points. The Cardinals offense is terrible. They put up 3 points against the Rams. Coming into that game, they led the NFL in punts. Their offense is awful on third down. The Bills should be able to keep this one within a score. Gut feeling says the Cardinals win this one by 3 as most of their wins in the last two years come via final drives. The Cardinals have no business being 3+ point favorites ever.

New York Giants (+5) over SAN FRANCISCO 49ers— Confidence: 5/10 — The 49ers D has been dominant the last two weeks. No question. I just wouldn’t want to lay the points against the team that beat them outright in San Fran last year 20-17. The Giants are 9-2 ATS against teams with a winning record and 9-2 ATS as an underdog. San Fran has been kind to bettors though, 16-6 ATS in the last two years. I’m not touching this game as you are in the conundrum of the unstoppable force vs. the immovable object.

HOUSTON TEXANS (-3.5) over Green Bay Packers — Confidence: 5/10 — Early lean on the Texans and this game is subject to flip-flop. The public is loving the Packers with the points here. I think most people will acknowledge that this Packers team isn’t the same team they were last year. After last week’s disappointing loss to the Colts, the Packers should be motivated to make a statement by beating the 5-0 Texans on the road. You may also see the Texans take a game off. I’m really torn here. I’ll have to revisit this game later, but early lean on the Texans at home.

SAN DIEGO CHARGERS (-1.5) over Denver Broncos — Confidence: 5/10 — Another toss up that I’ll have to analyze in more detail later. I’ll go with the Chargers at home for the time being and the pick is  subject to change.

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS (-3.5) over Kansas City Chiefs — Confidence: 4/10 — The concern here with taking the Bucs and the only reason to take the Chiefs here is if Jamaal Charles goes off against a suspect Bucs team. Also note that the Chiefs will be without Matt Cassel this week. Bucs are at home and coming off the bye week which is a definite plus and the sole reason I’ll pick them in this spot.

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