Week 7 – Picks Against the Spread (2012)

We got back on the right track on Thursday with our picks. No matter which way you sliced it, they were all winners. We called the under 37.5, Seahawks (+8), and teaser of 49ers (-1)/Under 44.5 or Seahawks (+15)/Under 44.5. Let’s see what we can take down on Sunday. There are not too many spreads that I love this week, we just have a handful of picks that I would rate a 6 or 7 out of 10. Games not ranked by confidence but by time.

BUFFALO BILLS (-3) over Tennessee Titans — Confidence: 6/10 — I can see this game going either way, but I’ll lean Bills since the Titans just have not played well at all on the road. Titans are 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games.

MINNESOTA VIKINGS (-6.5) over Arizona Cardinals — Confidence: 7/10 — I like the Vikings here who have played excellent football at home. They upset the 49ers at home at beat the Titans 30-7. You’ve heard me bash the Cardinals offense before, who stand to struggle against the Vikings defense this week. Last year, these teams played in Minnesota and the Vikings came out on top 34-10.

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (-2) over Cleveland Browns — Confidence: 6/10 — I’ll go with the Colts at home. The one downside to this pick is the Colts run D. Will they have an answer for Trent Richardson or will they be able to contain him? Maurice Jones-Drew destroyed the Colts, as did Shonn Greene. Before jumping on the Colts, you’ll have to think long and hard about the Trent Richardson vs. Colts run defense matchup.

Baltimore Ravens (+7) over HOUSTON TEXANS — Confidence: 6/10 — How will the Ravens be able to bounce back from the loss of Ray Lewis and Lardarius Webb? Apparently Vegas does not have much faith in them as the Ravens would likely be getting just 3 points if they still had those players. “Next man up” will be the mantra for the Ravens. No, I don’t think they will fall apart. I expect the Ravens to compete in this game and keep it within a score. I’ll favor taking the points.

Green Bay Packers (-5.5) over ST. LOUIS RAMS — Confidence: 7/10 — Somebody finally lit a fire under the Packers ass last week. After blowing a 21-3 lead to the Colts, the Packers bounced back nicely by absolutely destroying the Houston Texans and their 1st ranked defense. I’m confident that they can do it again against the Rams, but this is the third straight road game for the Packers and the home-dog factor is the risk here.

Dallas Cowboys (-2) over CAROLINA PANTHERS — Confidence: 7/10 — The Panthers are at home off the bye week, while the Cowboys are playing back-to-back road games, which is a huge factor for the Panthers, but the Panthers have defensive issues and the Cowboys look to expose that. I’m confident that the Cowboys defense can hold the Panthers in check while the Cowboys put up points on the weak Panthers defense.

Washington Redskins (+6) over NEW YORK GIANTS — Confidence: 6/10 — Both teams are coming off big wins. The Giants dominated the 49ers on the road and the Redskins snapped their home losing streak. I’m favoring the points solely based on matchup history. Washington is 3-0 ATS and 2-1 SU in the last three. With the over/under at a high 51, I see that as an opportunity to take the under in a teaser. NFC East battles tend to be low scoring and dominated by defense. Tease the over/under to under 58 and take Giants (+1) or Redskins (+13) based on your preference. I see the Giants winning by 3-4 points, but they are also capable of steam-rolling over the Skins.

New Orleans Saints (-2) over Tampa Bay Buccaneers — Confidence: 7/10 — The public is pounding the Bucs. Why the low spread? It’s a division game, the Bucs are at home, and the Bucs bring a fight against the Saints. The Bucs are 3-3 ATS and 3-3 SU against the Saints in the last three years. They’ve split this series the last three years. The Bucs came out of top last year at home 26-20. With Aqib Talib out due to suspension, I’ll take Drew Brees and the Saints, who looked impressive last week against the Chargers and are starting to gain momentum after a terrible start to the season.

NEW YORK JETS (+10.5) over New England Patriots — Confidence: 6/10 — I’ll take the points as this is too many points to give up in a division game. The public is split here 50/50. Jets are 4-4 ATS and 4-4 SU in their last 8 games against New England. Last year in New England the Patriots won 30-21.

OAKLAND RAIDERS (-6) over Jacksonville Jaguars — Confidence: 7/10 — I’ll take the Raiders at home against the league’s worst offense. The Raiders nearly beat the Falcons last week on the road and were able to beat the Steelers at home. The Raiders should be able to get the win and the cover, which is where 67% of the money is going.

CINCINNATI BENGALS (+1) over Pittsburgh Steelers — Confidence: 5/10 — The Steelers have struggled on the road losing to the Titans and the Raiders. Pittsburgh has won and covered 5 straight against Cincinnati. Mendenhall and Redman are both banged up and may not suit up for this game. Polamalu is also out. The Steelers defense gives up 7 more points on average when Polamalu is out. I’ll give a slight lean on the Bengals due to the injuries to the Steelers and the Bengals being at home, but the trends don’t look good for them.

CHICAGO BEARS (-6.5) over Detroit Lions — Confidence: 7/10 – DA BEARS! Bears are at home off the bye week. Their defense has been dominant and stand to pick off Stafford a few times, especially with Stafford forcing the ball to Calvin Johnson. Bears waxed the Lions last year 37-13 in Chicago.