NFL Week 2 Predictions & Picks Against the Spread

2010 NFL Week 2 Picks »

2009 NFL Week 2 Picks »

Last week turned out to be a great week. I ended up 12 units on my bets and my top 2 plays of the week worked out like a charm. I took the Steelers and Cowboys and they both dominated the game. There was no need to even sweat those ones out. This week, the games look harder, but after looking through the matchups, there are still a handful of games that I like. On to the NFL Week 2 betting analysis.

SPREADS TO TAKE:

GREEN BAY PACKERS -3 @ DETROIT LIONS

The Lions by far have the worst defense in the NFL. They gave up 34 points to the Falcons and allowed over 200 rushing yards to 1 player! Last season, the Falcons were ranked 23rd offensively and they put up 34 on the Lions; just imagine what the 2nd ranked offense from last year will do to them. The Lions were ranked dead last in yards allowed AND points allowed last season. Aaron Rodgers is the real deal. Last season the Packers defeated the Lions twice. The scores of those games: 34-13 and 37-26. I’m putting 6 units on the Packers -3. I love this game. I’m not worried about the Lions WRs either because the Packers have one of the best secondaries in the league. 96% of the money on the spread at sportsbook.com is on the Packers and is clearly the favorite game amongst bettor.

Prediction — Packers 35 – Lions 20

Pick Against the Spread: Packers -3 — Confidence 5/5
Pick Straight Up: Packers — Confidence 5/5

PITTSBURGH STEELERS -6.5 @ CLEVELAND BROWNS (SUNDAY NIGHT GAME)

I love the Steelers this year. I feel like they’ll be a great team to ride. They were a great pick last week and came through for me huge. I don’t think the Browns are the same team they were last year. They were already exposed by the Cowboys at home 28-10. Derek Anderson only managed 114 yards and this week he’ll be facing the 3rd ranked passing defense from last year. I expect big numbers from Big Ben and Willie Parker against a defense that ranked towards the bottom in every category last season. I’ll put 6 units on the Steelers. I like the way this matchup looks. The Steelers beat the Browns in Cleveland last year 34-7, but the Browns kept it close when they played in Pittsburgh 31-28. 95% of the money on the spread at sportsbook.com is on the Steelers, and like the Packers pick, is another game that bettors are also big on. There does remain a concern with Big Ben’s sore shoulder and he’s been held out of practice, but I expect him to be ready to go on Sunday and and Steelers should be able to run the rock well. The Browns gave up 167 rushing yards and 3 rushing TDs last week to Dallas.

Prediction — Steelers 31 – Browns 20

Pick Against the Spread: Steelers -6.5 — Confidence 4/5
Pick Straight Up: Steelers — Confidence 4/5

MIAMI DOLPHINS @ ARIZONA CARDINALS -6.5

The Cardinals beat the 49ers at home last week 23-13. Offensively, the Dolphins and 49ers are pretty equal. Defensively, the 49ers are ahead of the Dolphins. I’ll expect 24+ from the Cardinals, they averaged 25.2 PPG last season, which ranked 7th in the NFL. I don’t see the Dolphins getting more than 17. I like the Cardinals in this one. I’m going to put 2 units on the Cards.

Prediction — Cardinals 27 – Dolphins 17

Pick Against the Spread: Cardinals -6.5 — Confidence 4/5
Pick Straight Up: Cardinals — Confidence 4/5

NEW ORELANS SAINTS -1 @ WASHINGTON REDSKINS

The Saints star receiver Marques Colston will be out 4-6 weeks, but that’s no reason to scare you off from taking them against the Skins. The Redskins offense looked horrendous last week against the Giants. They had something ridiculous like 7 straight punts without a first down. Their receivers can’t get the job done and they’re asking too much from Jason Campbell by asking him to learn a completely new offense. Expect Clinton Portis to get a ton of touches, but he can’t win this game himself and he’s not going to get help elsewhere. The Redskins D didn’t look too good to boot. They gave up over 150 yards to Plaxico Burress. Despite the loss of Colston, the Saints have receivers to work with. Henderson and Patten will get the job done. With Jeremy Shockey and Reggie Bush, the Saints shouldn’t have too many problems scoring. I’m going to put 3 units on them.

Prediction — Saints 24 – Redskins 14

Pick Against the Spread: Saints -1 — Confidence 4/5
Pick Straight Up: Saints — Confidence 4/5

SAN FRANSISCO 49ERS @ SEATTLE SEAHAWKS -7

I was SHOCKED the Seahawks are 7 point favorites after getting crushed by the Bills last week 34-10 and losing Nate Burelson. The Seahawks are now without their top 3 wideouts: Deion Brand (Out), Bobby Engram (Out), Nate Burleson (Out). Who the hell is Hasselbeck going to throw to? Hasselbeck was a dismal 17/41 last week. The Seahawks also have RB Maurice Morris out. I can’t see the Seahawks scoring more than 10 points this game. I just can’t see Hasselbeck, Julius Jones, and a couple arena league WRs winning this one. The 49ers don’t have much offense, but with their defense, and getting 7 points, I think it’s a good spread to take. The over/under is 38.5. I like the 49ers and the points and the under. Hell, I’m going 2 unit parlay: San Fransisco Moneyline and the under. It pays 6 to 1. Or if you want to take the points and the under, it’s 2.5 to 1.

Prediction — 49ers 13 – Seahawks 10

Pick Against the Spread: 49ers +7 — Confidence 4/5
Pick Straight Up: 49ers — Confidence 3/5

NEW YORK GIANTS -9 @ ST. LOUIS RAMS

The Rams should be competing with the Lions for worst NFL defense. The Eagles put up over 500 yards of offense on them (without their top 2 wideouts) and the Giants offense is just as potent. I expect a huge day out of Eli and I think the Giants front 7 will keep Steven Jackson contained. I’ll put 3 units on the G-Men. The Rams will also be without WR Drew Bennett, their starting wideout opposite of Torry Holt. Leonard Little is also doubtful with a hamstring injury. Things aren’t looking good for the Rams.

Prediction — Giants 31 – Rams 13

Pick Against the Spread: Giants -9 — Confidence 4/5
Pick Straight Up: Giants — Confidence 5/5

SPREADS TO AVOID:

BUFFALO BILLS @ JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS -5.5

The Bills defense is legit. They destroyed the Seahawks last weak in dominating fashion. I’m not ready to take them just yet, but I would rather take them and the points instead of the Jags at this point. The Jags struggled last week against the Titans, but this week they’ll be at home, and I expect them to return to their 2007 form. This should be a tight matchup and I can see the Jags pulling this one out in a tight one. Personally, I would pass on this game. I need to see more from these teams.

Prediction — Jaguars 24 – Bills 20

Pick Against the Spread: Bills +5.5 — Confidence 2/5
Pick Straight Up: Jaguars — Confidence 2/5

SAN DIEGO CHARGERS -1.5 @ DENVER BRONCOS

How good were the Broncos last week? They were damn good. Granted, it was the Oakland Raiders, but Jay Cutler and Eddie Royal just tore it up without their star receiver Brandon Marshall. With the Broncos at home, Brandon Marshall returning, and Cutler on fire with his new buddy Eddie Royal, I like the Broncos here. The Broncos run defense remains a concern vs. LT. Plus, the Chargers KILLED the Broncos last season. They won both meetings last season: 23-3 and 41-3. I’ll take the Broncos, but I’m not taking the game due to the Broncos run D and last season’s results. The Broncos haven’t defeated the Chargers in the last 2 seasons.

Prediction — Broncos 27 – Chargers 24

Pick Against the Spread: Broncos +1.5 — Confidence 2/5
Pick Straight Up: Broncos — Confidence 2/5

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS -2 @ MINNESOTA VIKINGS

If Matt Forte managed to get 123 yards off the Colts last week, the forecast doesn’t look too good for the Colts when they have to face Adrian Peterson this Sunday. The Colts offense is way out of rhythm with Peyton missing the entire preseason due to his knee. Maybe he’ll get his act together this week, maybe he won’t. The Colts defense certainly didn’t look like the 2007 unit that was a top 3 defense. If you want to take the Colts because the spread is low and you think they’ll bounce back, I would suggest staying away from it. With the way they Colts looked last week, I’m going with the Vikings this week. I’ll wait until Peyton has his mojo back before putting any money on the Colts.

Prediction — Vikings 24 – Colts 20

Pick Against the Spread: Vikings +2 — Confidence 2/5
Pick Straight Up: Vikings — Confidence 2/5

TENNESSEE TITANS @ CINCINNATI BENGALS -1

The Bengals were TERRIBLE last week. Carson Palmer couldn’t even get over 100 yards. He has no offensive line protection whatsoever. The Titans were able to top a playoff team. Expect a healthy dose of LenDale White and Chris Johnson. Based on last week’s performance, I would go with the Titans, but they don’t have enough offense to convince me to put money on them.

Prediction — Titans 20 – Bengals 17

Pick Against the Spread: Titans +1 — Confidence 2/5
Pick Straight Up: Titans — Confidence 2/5

CHICAGO BEARS @ CAROLINA PANTHERS -3

Both teams were huge surprises last weak. I didn’t expect either team to do much. Matt Forte is a hell of a back and Orton managed the game well. Jake Delhomme is also BACK, but he’ll have to wait another week before getting his star receiver Steve Smith back, and I can see them doing a lot of damage this season. I could see this game going either way, but I’m more confident with the Bears because of their defense. The Bears only gave up 13 points to the Colts last week and their defense looks like the defense that carried them to the 2006 Super Bowl.

Prediction — Bears 17 – Panthers 13

Pick Against the Spread: Bears +3 — Confidence 2/5
Pick Straight Up: Bears — Confidence 2/5

OAKLAND RAIDERS @ KANSAS CITY CHIEFS -3.5

I don’t like either team, so I’ll just pass on this one. The Raiders looked awful last week, the Chiefs are at home. Go with the Chiefs.

Prediction — Chiefs 23 – Raiders 17

Pick Against the Spread: Chiefs -3.5 — Confidence 2/5
Pick Straight Up: Chiefs — Confidence 2/5

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS @ NEW YORK JETS -1

With Brady out and the unproven Matt Cassell taking over, I would stay away from taking them. I’m leaning towards the Jets, but the Pats D will keep them in the game and Cassell will just be asked to manage the game for them, and he’ll be able to do that for them.

Prediction — Jets 20 – Patriots 17

Pick Against the Spread: Jets -1 — Confidence 2/5
Pick Straight Up: Jets — Confidence 2/5

ATLANTA FALCONS @ TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS -7

The Falcons looked impressive last week, but let’s not get ahead of ourselves: it was against the Lions, the worst defense in the NFL. This week, yards and points will not come easy for them against a tough Tampa D. I’m concerned with Garcia’s sprained ankle, and he may be out this week. I think the Bucs will cover, but with Garcia’s injury, I’ll pass on this one.

Prediction — Buccaneers 23 – Falcons 13

Pick Against the Spread: Buccaneers -7 — Confidence 2/5
Pick Straight Up: Buccaneers — Confidence 2/5