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Some big over/under plays for 1:00 Week 3 of the NFL.

I hope you guys enjoyed three free winners this past week in the NFL. Cincinnati and Baltimore wasn’t even close. The Jets helped push the over with their fourth quarter touchdown. And thanks to the game winning field goal by New Orleans as time expired they were able to push it over the total by a few points. I also threw in an under in the Carolina/Tampa Bay game that hit, which made me 4-0-0 on the week in over/under calls.

Once again, I’m going to base my picks off of the trend. It seemed to work last week so why not try it again this week?

Look for a low scoring affair between these two teams on Sunday.

I’ve been researching all day on some of the most popular trends, and trends that are going to give us some winners.

Let’s take a look:

Cleveland Browns @ Baltimore Ravens:

Key Trends:

• Cleveland under is 4-0 in their last four played in September.
• Cleveland under is 4-1-1 when a road dog of 10.5+ points.
• Baltimore under is 5-1-1 in their last seven games.
• Baltimore under is 12-3 in last 15 games played as a favorite.
• Baltimore under is 8-3 in last 11 home games.
• Baltimore under is 9-2-1 in last 12 against AFC opponents.

Play on under (37)

Buffalo Bills @ New England Patriots

Key Trends:

• Buffalo under is 4-0 in last four road games.
• Buffalo under is 5-0 in last five games as the underdog.
• Buffalo under is 6-1 in last seven games.
• Buffalo under is 4-1 in last five against an AFC opponent.
• New England under is 4-0-1 in last five games as a favorite of 10.5

Miami Hurricanes @ Pittsburgh Panthers

We’re in for a treat Thursday night when the Panthers host the Hurricanes. These two teams haven’t met since 2003 when Miami topped them 28-14. Miami is coming off a bye week and got that extra week to recover after that 36-24

Pitt looks to celebrate a victory tomorrow under the lights.

loss to Ohio State. And if you think about it, the Miami/Ohio State game should have been a lot lower scoring, but Miami had four crucial turnovers that led to some easy Ohio State scores. Miami’s defense has had that extra week of rest and has their work cut out for them with Pitt as they average 31 points a game.

Ok now let’s talk about some of the major reasons why I like the under besides the stats. The line opened up at a total of 55. If any of you have been following the line movement you’ll notice it’s down to 50. Now for all you mathematicians out there that’s a difference of five points. FIVE! Jump on the under. If there’s one play that I think will hit for sure this week it’s the under in this game. You might hear people “oh they put up 24 against that stifling Ohio State defense” and “oh Pitt is average 31 points per game how can you take the under!”. Well don’t be fooled.

Key Trends:

• The under is 7-0 in Miami’s last seven against Big East opponents.
• The under is 10-4 in Miami’s last 14 Thursday night games.
• The under is 10-4 in Pitt’s last 14 Thursday night games.
• The under is 5-1 in Pitt’s last six following a win in the previous week.

Play on under (50) Confidence (4/5) (Winner)…

Hope you followed and took our picks this week.

Wow. What a week huh? When asked to join this site last week and contribute my knowledge of college and NFL football, never did I imagine a first week like this. Let’s just take a look at some of the stats of this first week.

Joey G: 6-2-0 overall going 3-1-0 in college and 3-1-0 in NFL. Hope you took a look at my over/under special yesterday as it went 2-0-0.

The Kid: 3-2-0 yesterday hitting the majority of his NFL picks. Started 3-1-0 until that shocking blowout of the Colts over the Giants.

Vegas & Brandon: These two had an amazing college Saturday of picks. Nebraska, Alabama, Arizona, Boise St., Ball St. — all winners along with Vegas’s high confidence NFL plays.

Later in the week be sure to check for our Week 4 college picks and our Week 3 NFL picks. Saying this year has been a success would be an understatement at this point. I look forward to seeing what YOU think of our picks this week. Be sure to comment on anything.

Along with Vegas, I agree on the no action play tonight in the 49ers/Saints game.…

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Carolina Panthers (-3.5)

I hope all of you have been following my picks since Thursday night. I am 3-1-0 ATS since joining this site and hope to make you guys some more money today. How about Vegas and Brandon though absolutely dominating last night? That’s awesome.

I hope you guys have taken a look at my over/under special today for the three NFL games that I liked.

Today though I was looking through the 1:00 games and found one that stuck out to me. I like the Carolina Panthers today against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Last week Carolina was playing right with the New York Giants all game and should have easily covered that spread, until they turned it over five times, not to mention letting Eli throw the ball all over them. There is no way that Carolina is going to allow Tampa Bay to force five turnovers out of them today.

Tampa Bay on the other hand was in jeopardy of losing outright in their opener, but then Jake Delhomme saved their game with his late interceptions and poor decision making.

Not only do I like Carolina in this game, but I like the under as well. Neither team could make it to 20 points last week. Plus the line movement opening at 39 for the total has been dropped down to 38.5 which is an indication that most people already see the under as a possibility. I sense maybe a 17-10 or 20-13 final today with Carolina coming out victorious.

KEYS: Panthers are 5-1 ATS in their last six, 4-1 ATS at home. Panthers thrive against NFC opponents ATS going 8-1 in their last nine. The under is 8-0 in Tampa Bay’s last …

Houston Cougars @ UCLA Bruins

I am completely baffled by this line. I think that Houston should be a double digit favorite in this one.

Houston should cruise to an easy victory tonight in UCLA.

UCLA couldn’t even score a point in their home opener against Stanford. Their offensive confidence has to be at zero. They have turned it over seven times in two games! Houston has forced five themselves this season and should have a hay day (or night) against UCLA. Although Houston didn’t play a powerhouse in UTEP last week, they still managed to get 656 total yards which anyway should boost their confidence on offense.

After losing 35-0 in their home opener, all home field advantage has been lost in my opinion for the Bruins. This is Houston’s first road game of the season, but the Bruins are only 1-4 ATS in their last five at games at home.

UCLA seems to have trouble controlling the ball and with their turnovers should hand the Cougars an easy cover tonight.

Key Factor: Houston is 8-2 in their last ten non-conference games in September.

Play on Houston (-4)…

Central Michigan should have no problem winning by double digits today.

Central Michigan Chippewas (-10) @ Eastern Michigan Eagles

There is a particular MAC match-up that I see as an easy cover today. Eastern Michigan hosts Central Michigan today at 4 pm et.

I’m a big stats guy when it comes to making my picks, and here is what I found that gives me enough confidence to put money on Central Michigan today.

Central Michigan is coming off a tough 13-10 loss to Temple, which can probably be blamed on their three turnovers. Eastern Michigan on the other hand has lost their first two games, and has given the ball away six times compared to the two forced out of their opponents. Central Michigan’s rush defense has been sensational only allowing 49 yards on 34 carries in their opener, and then 114 yards on 36 carries (less than four yards a carry) in their tough week two loss.

Eastern Michigan seemed lost with their run game last week which already gives Central an advantage in that department. Eastern is going to have to heavily rely on their passing game today. They had a successful passing game in week two, but in week one they only threw for 31 yards. Inconsistency. Eastern has allowed over 180 yards of rushing in each of their first two games, so look for Central to try and take advantage of their poor rush defense. There is no indication of Eastern covering this ten point spread.

Key Factors: Central Michigan Chippewas are 4-1 ATS in their last five road games, and are 5-0 ATS in the month of September.

Play on Central Michigan (-10)…

Nevada loves the Friday night lights.

California Golden Bears @ Nevada Wolfpack (+3)

Take it if you like it, but my money is on Nevada tonight. Nevada looks like they should be getting more points just because California stomped Colorado last week 52-7. You have to look at the stat that Colorado turned the ball over five times that game and seemed completely lost on offense. With Nevada only turning it over one time in two games, you have to expect that they will take care of the ball and not give away any freebies. With 631 total yards against Colorado St. last week, Nevada is coming into tonight with the utmost confidence on offense.

This being California’s first road test of the season, I’m interested to see how they handle themselves. I don’t see a lot of turnovers coming from either one of these two teams tonight. Cal will have some confidence coming off the big win over Colorado, but it won’t be enough to hold off the Wolfpack tonight.

I like the home dog here. Home dogs are 15-10 (60%) ATS this season to date, and Cal is 0-6 ATS in their last six against WAC opponents. The Wolfpack love Friday nights going 5-1 ATS in their last six played on a Friday.

Play on Nevada (+3)…