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Question: Which player should I start in my flex in week 1?

I’m in a standard league that has 3 flex spots.

Here are my players: Maurice Jones-Drew, DeAngelo Williams, Ronnie Brown, Kevin Smith, Kendall Wright, Robert Meachem.

I’ve pretty much  locked in DeAngelo Williams and Kevin Smith. I’m wondering who should start in the last spot.

Answer:

Expect MJD’s carries to be limited this week against the Vikings. The guy ended his holdout just a few days ago and may not even play. If he plays, I expect Rashad Jennings to get the majority of the work with MJD getting just a few carries. With MJD’s carries limited, I wouldn’t trust him in my starting roster.

I really like DeAngelo Williams this week. Tampa Bay’s defense ranked 32nd against the run last season and Jonathan Stewart is still recovering from a sprained ankle that he suffered in the preseason. DeAngelo Williams is going to have a monster game.

Kevin Smith is the other no brainer with Michael Leshoure suspended and Jahvid Best on the PUP. Kevin Smith will be getting all of the carries for the Lions against a Rams defense that is very poor against the run. I’m expecting a monster game from DeAngelo.

In the last spot, I am between Ronnie Brown and Robert Meachem. Check on the status of Ryan Matthews. He may have to sit week 1 out due to his broken collarbone. If Matthews is a scratch in week 1, Ronnie Brown is your man. If Ryan Matthews is set to start, I would take a shot on Robert Meachem and hope that he burns the Raiders with the deep ball from Philip Rivers. I need to see what Kendall Wright is all about …

After Texans (-10) over Dolphins and Giants (-3) over Cowboys, the next game that sticks out to me on the week 1 card is Panthers (-2.5) over Buccaneers, thanks to the Panthers two routs over the Bucs last year. Before you jump on this pick right away, let’s try to break this game down.

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CAROLINA PANTHERS (-2.5) @ TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS

This looks like a great spread to take since it’s essentially a pick ’em game and the Panthers beat the Bucs by an average of 25.5 points in their matchups last season. Last year the Panthers absolutely dominated the Bucs, which is why I am so tempted to take this game right out of the gate without thinking twice.

In week 16 last year, the Panthers demolished the Bucs when the game was played in Carolina 48-16. The Panthers running game trampled over the Bucs with the trio of Cam Newton, Jonathan Stewart, and DeAngelo Williams all gaining over 60 yards on the ground and averaging about 10 yards-per-carry. The Panthers put up 270 rushing yards and 163 passing yards.

The teams also faced each other in week 13 in Tampa Bay. The Panthers again rolling in that game 38-19. That game featured a more balanced Panthers attack that gained 222 yards in the air and 163 yards on the ground. Cam Newton also had three rushing touchdowns in that game. It’s clearly no surprise that the Bucs ranked last in the NFL against the run and the Panthers ranked 3rd in rushing offense in the NFL.

I’m not expecting another rout …

After looking at the Week 1 lineup, the only spread I’m going to go big on is HOUSTON (-10) over Miami. I’m actually going to tease the spread to HOUSTON (-3) & UNDER 50. With the Texans D, I don’t expect Miami to score more than 10 points. The Texans will easily cruise to victory. My other play is NEW YORK GIANTS (-3) over Cowboys. Other than those two games, nothing really interests me except Carolina (-1) over TAMPA BAY, CHICAGO (-9.5) over Indianapolis, and DETROIT (-9) over St. Louis.

*** Remember to sign up for the pick ‘em league before kickoff for your chance to win a free custom NFL Shop t-shirt. ***

NFL Week 1 Picks Against the Spread

NEW YORK GIANTS (-4) over Dallas Cowboys — I’m taking the Giants in this one. They’ve owned this matchup in the last 3 years going 5-1 against the Cowboys. L

CHICAGO BEARS (-9.5) over Indianapolis Colts — Bears looks like a potential play here. Andrew Luck looks solid so far, but the Bears defense will prove to be too much in his first regular season game. W

Buffalo Bills (+4) over NEW YORK JETS — The Jets offense is pathetic. They can’t run the ball, they can’t pass the ball, they can’t block. Take the points. Bills are my favorite underdog this week. You can also add 7 points to the Bills spread to make it +11 and take the the under 47.5 if you want to tease this one. L

HOUSTON TEXANS (-10) over Miami Dolphins — I am all over this game and very confident in my teaser with Texans -3/Under 50. W

Jacksonville Jaguars (+4.5) over MINNESOTA VIKINGS —  Should be a tight game …

We’re back with another season of NFL picks against the spread. We already have our Giants vs. Cowboys pick posted and we’re going to see what is on tap for Sunday, September 9, 2012. Before we can into the pick for this game, remember to sign up for the pick ‘em league before kickoff for your chance to win a free custom NFL Shop t-shirt.

MIAMI DOLPHINS @ HOUSTON TEXANS (-10)

I’m very high on the Texans this year. The Texans defense ranked 2nd in yards allows and 4th in points allowed last season. Wade Phillips as the defensive coordinator can take credit for that as the Texans ranked 30th and 29th respectively in those categories in 2010.

Despite the loss of Mario Williams and DeMeco Ryans, the Texans should still have one of the better defenses in this league. They were able to add Bradie James to pair up with Brian Cushing to shore up their linebacking corp. Sophomore DE J.J. Watt, who had an amazing rookie campaign, is receiving a ton of phrase from Wade Phillips, who went as far as saying that this guy is a future Hall of Famer. The Texans also have one of the best sets of cornerbacks in the league with Johnathan Joseph and Kareem Jackson (2010 1st-round pick).

Houston is 6-0 (4-2 ATS) against Miami in their last 6 games. The faced each other least season in week 2. The game was in Miami and the Texans won 23-13. In that game, Arian Foster was limited to 10 touches due to his hamstring injury and Ben Tate got the bulk of the carries. Tate rushed the ball 23 times for 103 yards. With a healthy Arian Foster, the Texans offense should be …

We are just days away from the opening kickoff on Wednesday, September 5, 2012. The Super Bowl champion Giants are set to host the Dallas Cowboys. Before we can into the analysis for the game, remember to sign up for the pick ’em league before kickoff for your chance to win a free custom NFL Shop t-shirt. It’s a great way to track your record throughout the season and to compete against other readers of THE PASS RUSH and me.

DALLAS COWBOYS @ NEW YORK GIANTS (-4)

I like the Giants in this one at home. The Giants had the Cowboys number last season. The Giants beat the Cowboys in the final week of the season for the NFC East Title 31-14. Eli Manning picked the Cowboys secondary apart throwing for 346 yards and 3 TDs. That is exactly why the Cowboys acquired CB Brandon Carr in free agency and drafted CB Morris Claiborne. Victor Cruz did most of the damage in that final game with 6 receptions for 178 yards.

In the team’s previous contest in Dallas, the Giants escaped with a 37-34 win, again doing it with their passing game. Eli Manning threw for 400 yards and 2 TDs in that game. In fact, the Cowboys have only beaten the Giants once in the last 3 years, so the Giants hold a 5-1 record against the Cowboys in their last 6 games and have covered the spread in each win. The only game they didn’t cover was their 33-20 loss on November 14, 2010, when the Cowboys won the turnover battle.

There are some injuries to take into consideration. There’s about a 90% chance that Jason Witten sits this game out. Miles Austin is listed as questionable. …

I’m very pleased with how my fantasy football drafts panned out thanks to our 2012 Fantasy Football Rankings. I was in two 10-team leagues. I had pick #8 in the first draft and pick #10 in the second draft. Here is how my rosters panned out.

Don’t forget to sign up for our pick ’em league.  Register Here. League ID: 30163. Password: thepassrush. Winner gets a free NFL Shop t-shirt.

Reaction:

I was actually looking forward to picking late since I wanted Jimmy Graham in round 2. Since I took Brees at #8 overall and CJ2K fell to #12, I had to take CJ2K who fell right into my lap. I had CJ2K ranked #9 overall.

As you can see, Torrey Smith is my mid-round sleeper. Get this guy if he’s around in round 8. I think he’s capabable of 1,000 yards and at least 6 TDs.  He put up 841 yards and 7 …

It seems as if almost everyone has come to the conclusion that Larry Fitzgerald is the clear No. 2 wide receiver after Calvin Johnson. However, I’ve seen a few people rank Julio Jones as the No. 2 wide receiver. I think it’s a fair debate to argue that Julio Jones deserves the No. 2 wide receiver ranking.  In fact, I have him ranked No. 2 over Larry Fitzgerald.

Here’s what I don’t like about Fitzgerald. His QB situation. Although he had the same QB situation in 2011 at had a monster season with 80 receptions, 1,411 yards, and 8 TDs, I rather have a receiver with a much better QB throwing him the football. The Falcons could easily be a scoring machine and the team to beat in the NFC outside of the Packers. The Cardinals will struggle to go .500. On the plus side, Fitzgerald had a much better 2nd half with Skelton as his QB compared to Kevin Kolb. All signs point to Skelton getting the starting job, who had much better chemistry with Fitzgerlad than Kolb.

Fitzgerald had a much better statistical season in 2011, but many feel that Julio Jones is going to breakout this season and go nuts this year. Julio Jones’ stats last season are 54 receptions, 959 yards, and 8 TDs (12 games). What I like with both players is their yards per reception. Julio Jones averaged 17.8 yards per receptions (ranked 7th) which is right on par with Fitzgerald’s 17.6 (ranked 8th), but Fitzgerald’s career average is 13.9.

Jones also had a hamstring injury nag him throughout the season which kept him out of 4 games. If Julio would have played in 16 games, his stats could have come out to 72 …