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It was a pretty solid week for me in week 7.  I was 8-5 ATS, with a very solid 1:00 going 6-2 ATS to start off Sunday strong. The Bears missed covering by a half point on Monday Night, which could have been the icing on the cake had they covered. The Vikings (-6.5) was my top play in week 7 and put me ahead nicely for the week. We start off Thursday Night Football with the very same team that came through for me in the clutch in week 7.

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS @ MINNESOTA VIKINGS (-5.5)

I’m loving the Vikings this year. They made me some money last week as they were my top pick — hence, the Percy Harvin image on the week 7 picks against the spread. The Vikings are now 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games and 3-1 ATS at home.

The Bucs put up a hell of a fight against the Saints last week and nearly tied the game as time expired, but a penalty was called when a WR stepped out of the endzone and then came back into the endzone to catch a TD pass from Josh Freeman. The penalty whiped out the game-tying play and ended the game. Tough loss for the Bucs. The good news for the Bucs though is that their offense is starting to click and that could mean trouble for the Vikings tonight.

I thought the public would be favoring the Vikings in this one, but that’s not the case as 58% of the public likes the Bucs to cover. I’m expecting a tight game and would not recommend laying the points. I would consider taking the points, but I like the Vikings to win …

We got back on the right track on Thursday with our picks. No matter which way you sliced it, they were all winners. We called the under 37.5, Seahawks (+8), and teaser of 49ers (-1)/Under 44.5 or Seahawks (+15)/Under 44.5. Let’s see what we can take down on Sunday. There are not too many spreads that I love this week, we just have a handful of picks that I would rate a 6 or 7 out of 10. Games not ranked by confidence but by time.

BUFFALO BILLS (-3) over Tennessee Titans — Confidence: 6/10 — I can see this game going either way, but I’ll lean Bills since the Titans just have not played well at all on the road. Titans are 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games.

MINNESOTA VIKINGS (-6.5) over Arizona Cardinals — Confidence: 7/10 — I like the Vikings here who have played excellent football at home. They upset the 49ers at home at beat the Titans 30-7. You’ve heard me bash the Cardinals offense before, who stand to struggle against the Vikings defense this week. Last year, these teams played in Minnesota and the Vikings came out on top 34-10.

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (-2) over Cleveland Browns — Confidence: 6/10 — I’ll go with the Colts at home. The one downside to this pick is the Colts run D. Will they have an answer for Trent Richardson or will they be able to contain him? Maurice Jones-Drew destroyed the Colts, as did Shonn Greene. Before jumping on the Colts, you’ll have to think long and hard about the Trent Richardson vs. Colts run defense matchup.

Baltimore Ravens (+7) over HOUSTON TEXANS — Confidence: 6/10 — How will the Ravens be able to bounce back …

What a wild week it was in Week 6. Tons of upsets and a very good week for the dogs. I took Ravens (-3) as my top play and missed  by a point when the Cowboys scored a touchdown in the last two minutes when the Ravens were holding an 8-point lead. The most significant upset last week was the Seahawks topping the Patriots in Seattle after scoring a TD in the last two minutes thanks to Russell Wilson chucking the deep ball to Sidney Rice who outright beat his man. The only upsets I can take pride in nailing were the Browns over Bengals, Giants over the 49ers, and Bills over Cardinals.

SEATTLE SEAHAKWS (+8) @ SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS

The NFC West is up for grabs tonight. The public is pretty much split on this one 50/50. I like taking the points as Seattle’s D is the real deal and should keep the game close. The Seahawks D is ranked 2nd in points allowed with a stingy 15.5 PPG and 4th in yards allowed. They’ve faced some strong offenses to boot — Green Bay, Dallas, New England, and Carolina.

San Fran’s offense looked terrible last week against the Giants. However, they’ve put up some solid offensive performances on occasion (vs. Bills, @ Jets, @ Packers). I think the 49ers have their struggles against the Seahawks defense. However, they may go off playing at home. The risk in taking the Seahawks is if the 49ers defense absolutely dominates this game. The 49ers gave up 3 points to the Bills and 0 points the Jets. They can be lights out.

The trends favor San Fran in this one: Seahawks are 2-5 ATS in San Fran in the last 7, the home …

If you’ve made it to week 7 in your survivor pool, you may be at a crossroads trying to select a survivor pool this week. Let’s go over which picks we’ve already taken and see which games we can look at.  Here’s a summary of the survivor pool picks:

Week 1 – Houston Texans over Miami Dolphins
Week 2 – Cincinnati Bengals over Cleveland Browns
Week 3 – Chicago Bears over St. Louis Rams
Week 4 – Baltimore Ravens over Cleveland Browns
Week 5 – New York Giants over Cleveland Browns
Week 6 — Atlanta Falcons over Oakland Raiders

This week, the biggest favorite is the New England Patriots (-10.5) over the New York Jets. I think you go with the Patriots in this spot. They’re at home and due for a bounce-back game after getting upset in Seattle last week. Your other option is the Minnesota Vikings over the Arizona Cardinals. The Vikings have played great football at home and should come out on top. The Cardinals don’t have much of an offense. I’m just not sure if I can trust my survivor pool pick on the Vikings, who are up against a very strong defense. The safe pick should be the Patriots at home, but if you’ve already taken the Patriots in your survivor pool and managed to survive, then my second favorite survivor pool pick would be the Minnesota Vikings over the Arizona Cardinals.

Week 7 Survivor Pool Pick: New England Patriots over New York Jets…

In Week 5, our survivor pool pick was the New York Giants over the Cleveland Browns. Gotta love pick against the Cleveland Browns in the survivor pool. We picked against them three times in the first five weeks of the NFL season and it hasn’t missed.

Here’s a summary of the survivor pool picks:

Week 1 – Houston Texans over Miami Dolphins
Week 2 – Cincinnati Bengals over Cleveland Browns
Week 3 – Chicago Bears over St. Louis Rams
Week 4 – Baltimore Ravens over Cleveland Browns
Week 5 – New York Giants over Cleveland Browns

In week 5, the easy pick here is Atlanta Falcons at home over the Oakland Raiders. It should be an easy win at home for the 5-0 Falcons since the Raiders have a lot of concerns in their secondary. Matt Ryan should go off and put up monster numbers. The Raiders offense has been lackluster and should be outmatched by the Falcons defense. The only concern here is that the Raiders are coming off their bye week. However, that just won’t be enough for them to top the Falcons on the road.

Week 6 Survivor Pool Pick: Atlanta Falcons over Oakland Raiders…

In week 5, I came out even. I split my big plays with the Bears and Texans. I split my teasers with Bears/Texans and Vikings/Packers. At first glance, week 6 looks like a tough week. Almost every spread is the 3.5-point variety where I see merit in both sides of the coin. I’m looking forward to Brandon’s college picks. He’s gone 6-2 ATS in the last two weeks. Let’s get after it fellas. Be sure to vote in the poll below.

BALTIMORE RAVENS (-3.5) over Dallas Cowboys — Confidence: 8/10 — The Ravens are typically dominant at home. Buy a half-point if you can and go with the Ravens here. Only concern is that Dallas is coming off the bye week after getting rocked by the Bears and you may see a rebound game from them. However, Dallas is still overrated in my opinion. Ravens should be the play at home. Don’t let the Ravens underperformance last week mess with your head too much. The Ravens can play poorly on the road. They’re a completely different animal at home.

Pittsburgh Steelers (-5.5) over TENNESSEE TITANS — Confidence: 7/10 — The Titans are in shambles. They’ve gotten killed by the Texans and Vikings in the last two weeks, but both games were on the road. They now return home where they beat the Lions 44-41. I don’t think they have enough in them to beat the Steelers. Chris Johnson has got no heart — 2.9 YPC and 0 TD! Pathetic. The Titans should yank that contract from him. I’m going to play the Steelers moneyline so the points aren’t a factor. The Titans are desperate for a win, but I don’t see them beating the Steelers. Mendenhall is back …

Post-Game Thoughts: The forum trolls can bask in glory as the Jets got the cover. The kicker was a 100-yard kickoff return for them in the 3rd quarter that lifted the Jets into the money. I would rather take the Texans and say they should have covered instead of speculating on the Jets solely as a situational play when there’s the prospect of them getting hammered by the Texans.  Overall, a solid week for me thanks to the Bears (-5). I had the Texans in a teaser with the Bears just in case the scenario played itself out that the Texans win, but don’t cover. The teaser mitigates some of the damage there.

Pre-Game Thoughts: I’m reading the thread on the Texans vs. Jets game at Covers.com to see what people are saying. A lot of people over there are liking Jets (+9) on the theory that since they’ve played so bad over the last few weeks, that it’s destined that they’ll show up tonight and cover this spread, or even win outright.

Forget that the Jets performance over the last three weeks has been a complete joke and that they’re facing the best defense in the league — they claim that Mark Sanchez will have a career game (against the best defense in the league)  just because the media is busting his balls. You know who else is getting his balls busted? Michael Vick. But that doesn’t stop him from being a turnover machine and a complete liability every time the ball is in his hands.  The comments there are completely laughable. I’m still waiting to come across somebody stating that the group Jeremy Kerley, Chaz Shillens and Clyde Gates is the most underrated wide receiving corp in the …