College Football Picks

Sorry this post comes a little in the day, but you still have plenty of time to make all of the bets I am posting.

Minnesota at Michigan (-19.5): Maybe it is just me, but I really think this Michigan team has a ton of talent, but clearly they have not put it together. They have to be one of the only teams in history to have started 4-0, and yet dropped in the standings each of the last two weeks after narrow wins. Part of having a good football program is learning to win even when you do not play very well. Michigan has done exactly that after narrow wins against Akron and UConn. Michigan comes off a bye week with plenty of time to prepare and refocus for Minnesota. If this team can put things together, they can easily dominate and blowout a team like Minnesota. Therefore, lay the 19.5 and take Michigan for 1 unit.

LSU at Mississippi State (+9.5). Tough and meaningless spot for LSU. MissSt is another team that has failed to put it all together. They are well coached, have above average talent, and should be motivated to beat LSU at home. LSU comes off a season ending loss at Georgia, which was a heartbreaker as well. LSU also is playing their second straight road game and come in as an almost 10 point favorite. MissSt comes off a blowout win over Troy and hopefully have that offense firing on all cylinders for today’s big home SEC game. I look for MissSt to play well and hopefully pull the upset. Take the points with Mississippi State for 1 unit.

Ohio State at NORTHWESTERN (+7). The real question is how good is Ohio State? While …

Nice to be back for another year of College Football. Over the years my betting strategy has really changed. I use to be a straight numbers guy, but over the past two years I have primarily become a situational player, in that I look for certain spots where either the casino has laid a bad number or more often the public has over bet a certain team.

Heading into Week 3 there is only one major college game on tap, Alabama (-7.5) at Texas A&M, but I do think there are a couple other plays that are worth taking a shot at.

ALABAMA (-7.5) vs. Texas A&M. I know recently some of the Alabama players have come out and said this is not a revenge game from last year when A&M upset them at home, but I did read a report that stated Alabama has had that game on a continual loop in the weight room since the season began. So I don’t buy the argument that there isn’t any revenge angle here. Additionally, I doubt Alabama liked hearing about how great Johnny Football was all year. Further, I am sure they didn’t appreciate his off the field antics either. Despite all the off field issues involved, A&M’s Defense is flat out terrible, make that TERRIBLE! Stats: PYA Avg. 176.5 yds, RYA Avg. 273, PPG Avg. 29.5. Who did they play? Rice and Sam Houston State. So let me say it again, TERRIBLE. Johnny Football better come to play just so A&M can keep it respectable, but don’t expect it and don’t expect Saben to let his foot off the gas when they are up 21 or more. Lay the points with Alabama for 2 units.

SOUTHERN UTAH (+21.0) vs. …

General rules for bowl game predictions. Rule 1: Almost always bet the underdogs. You can go back something like 26 years and if you would have blindly bet all bowl game underdogs you would have had a profitable bowl season every year. Currently, favorites are 3-2 against the spread so far this bowl season. Rule 2: Strongly consider betting the better rushing team. This comes down to a simple timing thing. Its easy to run the ball than throw it. Most teams have several weeks off between games and most of the time it takes passing offensives a little longer to get rolling in bowl games simply because they need to get their timing back. Rule 3: Strongly consider betting the better defensive team. You will have to do you homework in to follow this rule because many of the teams playing have never played each other, come from different conferences, and the stats can be misleading.

Western Kentucky (-6.5) vs. Central Michigan: In general, I tend to fade the MAC in bowl games as they have performed terrible over the past few years. After looking at CMU, there isn’t much to be impressed by here despite winning their last three games of the year to become bowl eligble. Their defense has given up almost 200 yards rushing per game, which is terrible considering they play in the MAC. WKU’S rushing attack is strong averaging 186 yards per game. With the new coach for the bowl game, I expect him to stick with the bread and butter and keep the ball on the ground with a huge dosage of running plays. WKU’s coach for the bowl game has had previous experience stepping in for coaches that bolted prior to the …

No write ups this week just the plays:

Iowa at MICHIGAN (-17) play on UM for 1 unit.

OHIO STATE (+2.5) at Wisconsin for 1 unit.

Stanford at Orgeon (-19) for 1 unit.

Arizona (+3) at Utah for 1 unit.

More to come later.…

Coming off our strongest week of the year going 4-1 ats. I see several “spot” plays this week that should be good spots to exploit some bad lines.

1. TEXAS A&M (+13.5) vs. Alabama: This is purely a spot play. Alabama comes off the huge emotional win last week over LSU. A&M is playing great football right now and has all year. Their only two losses came against Florida, during Week 2, and to LSU. I don’t think A&M can pull the upset, but they couldn’t be playing much better. A&M catches Alabama in a perfect spot, which will hopefully lead to an exciting close game. Take the points with A&M for 1 unit.

2. MISSISSIPPI STATE (+15) vs LSU: Again, spot play. Miss St comes off two embarrasing losses after starting the season 7-0. Clearly Miss St benefited from an early weak schedule. Miss St. is a good football team, but they cannot match talent with LSU. However, LSU comes off one of the toughest losses you will see all year. The loss to Bama also eliminates any national title hopes they still had. LSU is used to playing for national titles and you have to wonder where this team is mentally since they don’t have a whole lot to play for now. I look for Miss St to play their best game of the year. I think this should be a very low scoring affair so take the points with Miss St. for 1 unit.

3. Colorado at ARIZONA (-29): I was all over UCLA last week in a spot play against Arizona and I was dead on as UCLA won 66-10. However, I expected Az to play terrible and they did just that; clearly they had not …

1. Penn State at Purdue (+3.5). Purdue comes off two tough losses. However this team is pretty fundamentally strong and it should be focused today.  The line for the game has slowly been coming down in favor of Purdue. Penn State still has many issues on both sides of the ball.  Ohio State took advantage of many of their weaknesses and Purdue could do the same. It remains tough to win on the road in the Big Ten. Purdue wins outright. Play on Purdue 2 units.

2. Kansas at Baylor (-17).  Kansas comes off a very emotional loss to Texas. They were leading with just seconds to play and Texas pulled out the dramatic comeback. If my memory serves me right Kansas has not won a conference game in quite a a while. Tough spot for Kansas now having to play on the road. Baylor has not played as well as of late but they clearly are the better team here. Baylor will pose many offensive problems for the Kansas defense. Baylor needs to take advantage early and the game could be over by halftime. Play on Baylor for 2 units.

3. Arizona at UCLA (-3). If you have been reading my write ups this year you probably could have expected me to play UCLA today. Arizona played the game of their lives last week and you can bet they were celebrating that big win all week. Overall I think this game should be pretty evenly matched. However this is purely a spot play against Arizona. Additionally  UCLA is playing great football right now and will be very aggressive in their game plan. Play on UCLA for 1 unit.

4. New Mexico vs. UNLV (-3.5). I know that these two …

Some quick week 7 college football picks against the spread as I’m ready to jet out of here. Updates to picks may follow.

1. Ohio State (-17) over INDIANA: Indiana is coming off a tough loss to Michigan State. Indiana played as good as they possibly could that game, but fell short. After taking a 27-14 lead into the half, they failed to score a single point in the 2nd half and lost 31-27. I think you see Ohio State come in here and crush Indiana as last week’s tough loss sets up a hangover game for Indiana where I see them coming out flat. Ohio State is coming off a 63-28 win over Nebraska and is rolling right now.

2. Alabama (-21) over MISSOURI: With all of the injuries to Missouri, especially to their QB James Franklin, Alabama looks like the play.

3.  Syracuse (+7.5) over RUTGERS: Good value play as Syracuse is a better football team than their record indicates and Rutgers is a bit overrated.

4. PITTSBURGH (+3) over Lousiville: This is the third straight road game for Louisville, but at least they’re coming off a bye week. It’s tough for any team to win three straight road games, so I see this as a good spot to take Pittsburgh with the 3 points. Pitt has won the last 4 matchups against Louisville.

5. NOTRE DAME (-7) over Stanford : I’m going to keep riding Notre Dame until proven otherwise. They’re 5-0 SU, 4-1 ATS, and they have the best defense in college football. They’ve made me good money this year.…