Fantasy Football

Just got done with my first draft and I’m very happy with the results. I got a ton of guys that I was looking to get. In the first three rounds, it was just a matter of who fell to me and then it was just a matter of where I thought I was getting the most value or the most upside. Here are my picks and throughts.

12-Teams – 1/2 Point PPR

1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, FLEX, D/ST, K

1.) Adrian Peterson (RB) – #3 – I wasn’t thrilled with drafting #3. The debate begins at A.P vs. Forte. I knew Forte has more upside PPR value, but A.P. makes up whatever PPR downside he has with him getting more goalline opportunities. I’m concerned with A.P.’s age, but Forte is no spring chicken, he’s just as old. I don’t want to go WR this early with Calvin Johnson since I don’t know what kind of RB I’m getting in Round 2. You need a stud at RB. A.P. is guy that gets drafted in the top 5 every year he’s healthy. Forte is a guy you draft in the last half of Round 1. Adrian Peterson is still the guy to draft at #3 after Jamaal Charles and LeSean McCoy.

2.) Leo’Veon Bell (RB) – #22 – I was targeting Brandon Marshall in Round 2, who I like just as much as Dez Bryant and A.J. Green and he usually goes mid-Round 2. I was looking to get a WR stud, but they’re all off the board and the next wide receivers up are Alshon and Jordy. Giovani Bernard and Montee Ball are taken by now. I had my eye on Le’Veon Bell and Giovani Bernard as …

Tavon Austin is a guy that I’m targeting as a late-round flyer. He’s the poor man’s Cordarrelle Patterson. He may get you a return TD or two this season, he gets involved in the run game, and like Pattterson this year, the Rams will be doing anything just to get the ball in his hands this year with plays like bubble screens and short slant routes that may end up turning into big yards.

Both players are entering their sophomore campaign. Tavon Austin was the 1st wide receiver off the board in 2013, selected 8th overall. Cordarrelle Patterson was selected 29th overall. Being the first wide receiver drafted and being drafted in the top 10 came with big expectations, especially following the likes of other top 10 wide receivers recently drafted such as A.J. Green and Julio Jones. Tavon Austin’s 2013 season was considered a bust, especially for those who took a mid-round flyer on him in fantasy football hoping that he would be the next Julio Jones.

Statistically, Tavon Austin wasn’t that far behind from Cordarrelle Patterson. Cordarrelle Patterson had 45 receptions, 469 receiving yards, and 4 receiving TDs. Tavon Austin has 40 receptions, 418 receiving yards, and 4 receiving TDs. Cordarrelle Patterson had 12 rushing attempts, 158 rushing yards, and 3 rushing TDs. Tavon Austin had 9 rushing attempts, 151 rushing yards, and 1 rushing TD. Tavon Austin’s numbers could have been better than Patterson’s had he not missed the last three games of the season.

However, Tavon Austin never really impressed throughout the last season, whereas Cordarrelle Patterson burst onto the scene around week 13. From weeks 13-17, Cordarrelle Patterson was a fantasy football beast. You never really got that stretch of performance and glimpse of the …

Just wanted to check in with everybody. I’ve been working away on my 2014 Fantasy Football Rankings. Check those out as it will be a great cheat sheet for your draft and also breaks players down into tiers (RB1, RB2, WR1, WR2, WR3). It’s a continued work in progress until the season kicks off.

Just a few predictions about the upcoming 2014 football season and my approach to betting on the NFL in 2014. First, I’m not going to place any substantial bets on games until at least week 5. There are surprises every year and there are a lot of teams that I usually tend to enjoy betting against that will be much better football teams this year (e.g., Vikings, Jets, Jaguars, Rams, Browns, Cardinals, etc.). I wouldn’t be surprised to see the dogs starting the year on a very good note.

Over the last four years, I’ve found that my best weeks against the spread have been weeks 10-16.  That’s when things get serious. What gives me an edge during this time is I’ve found that the parity between teams that is often seen in the beginning of the year begins to dissipate. The playoff teams typically kick it up a notch while other teams who will not be competing for a playoff spot take a step back. It’s simply a matter of the playoff teams gaining confidence and the non-playoff teams losing confidence and you see that  take effect after week 9 once teams have a better idea of whether they are a contender or not.

For example, the Broncos were 6-2 ATS in their final 8 games after starting the season 4-3-1 ATS. The Seahawks finished the season 6-1 ATS after going 5-4 ATS in …

We’re busy working on our 2013 Fantasy Football rankings. It’s currently still a work in progress and will continually be evaluated and updated until Baltimore Ravens vs. Denver Broncos opening kickoff on September 5, 2013.

Check it out… 2013 Fantasy Football Rankings»…

I’m very pleased with how my fantasy football drafts panned out thanks to our 2012 Fantasy Football Rankings. I was in two 10-team leagues. I had pick #8 in the first draft and pick #10 in the second draft. Here is how my rosters panned out.

Don’t forget to sign up for our pick ’em league.  Register Here. League ID: 30163. Password: thepassrush. Winner gets a free NFL Shop t-shirt.

Reaction:

I was actually looking forward to picking late since I wanted Jimmy Graham in round 2. Since I took Brees at #8 overall and CJ2K fell to #12, I had to take CJ2K who fell right into my lap. I had CJ2K ranked #9 overall.

As you can see, Torrey Smith is my mid-round sleeper. Get this guy if he’s around in round 8. I think he’s capabable of 1,000 yards and at least 6 TDs.  He put up 841 yards and 7 …

It seems as if almost everyone has come to the conclusion that Larry Fitzgerald is the clear No. 2 wide receiver after Calvin Johnson. However, I’ve seen a few people rank Julio Jones as the No. 2 wide receiver. I think it’s a fair debate to argue that Julio Jones deserves the No. 2 wide receiver ranking.  In fact, I have him ranked No. 2 over Larry Fitzgerald.

Here’s what I don’t like about Fitzgerald. His QB situation. Although he had the same QB situation in 2011 at had a monster season with 80 receptions, 1,411 yards, and 8 TDs, I rather have a receiver with a much better QB throwing him the football. The Falcons could easily be a scoring machine and the team to beat in the NFC outside of the Packers. The Cardinals will struggle to go .500. On the plus side, Fitzgerald had a much better 2nd half with Skelton as his QB compared to Kevin Kolb. All signs point to Skelton getting the starting job, who had much better chemistry with Fitzgerlad than Kolb.

Fitzgerald had a much better statistical season in 2011, but many feel that Julio Jones is going to breakout this season and go nuts this year. Julio Jones’ stats last season are 54 receptions, 959 yards, and 8 TDs (12 games). What I like with both players is their yards per reception. Julio Jones averaged 17.8 yards per receptions (ranked 7th) which is right on par with Fitzgerald’s 17.6 (ranked 8th), but Fitzgerald’s career average is 13.9.

Jones also had a hamstring injury nag him throughout the season which kept him out of 4 games. If Julio would have played in 16 games, his stats could have come out to 72 …

Which TE do I draft first? Jimmy Graham or Rob Gronkowski?

I expect Jimmy Graham and Rob Gronkowski to go in the beginning of round 2. I think these players do deserve to go where they’re getting drafting. A lot of people are saying these players are getting overdrafted. I disagree. After Calvin Johnson, Larry Fitzgerald, and Julio Jones, I put both Rob Gronkowski and Jimmy Graham over any other wide receiver. Both will have over 1,200 receiving yards and at least 8 TDs.  In 2011, both Graham and Gronkowski had over 1,300 receiving yards and over 10 TDs. Gronkowski edged Graham out in both categories: 1,327 yards and 17 TDs compared to 1,310 yards and 11 TDs.

2011 Statistics

ROB GRONKOWSKI (16 games)
90 receptions, 1,327 yards, 17 TDs (124 targets)

JIMMY GRAHAM (16 games)
99 receptions, 1,310 yards, 11 TDs, (149 targets)

2012 Fantasy Rankings

NFL.com’s composite rankings has Ron Gronkowski ranked #13 and Jimmy Graham ranked #15 with Julio Jones in between. Yahoo has Jimmy Graham ranked #11 and Rob Gronkowski #13 with Larry Fitzgerald in between. Very interesting.

2012 Fantasy Outlook

The bottom line is you can’t miss with either of these guys with an early second round pick. You have to take them over the top WR and RB in the next class after the top 5 RBs, top 5 QBs, and top 3 WRs are off the board. If you’re sitting with the #14 or #15 pick in your fantasy draft, if Jimmy Graham or Rob Gronkowski are there, you take them. I have them ranked #10 and #11 after Darren McFadden and Chris Johnson followed by Larry Fitzgerald and Julio Jones.

You can even make the debate that one of these guys is …