College Football Picks

Until further notice, Alabama looks like the play this week.

We had a big Saturday last week with 2 big wins, but we lost a little juice in the NFL. Won on Miami, lost on San Fran. Won on Ravens, lost on Chargers. We ripped off two college wins in week 2 action and that’s what is making me think that college football is where I need to be looking at. The Sooners and Crimson Tide came up big as I suggested and I looked at only the top 4 college football games. Let’s see what big games are on tap in week 3.

We start off on Thursday with Cincinnati @ N.C. State (-2). Both teams have shown that they’re able to score, but both have very poor defenses, so I’m looking for a close higher-scoring showdown. Based on that, I’ll be curious to see the over/under is because I’ll think anything under 47 points is worth taking a deeper look into.

If you’re looking to ride Ohio State, you’ll be giving up 31-32 points to take them at home against Ohio. Considering that they’ll win by something like 42-3, it looks like a win, but too many points for my taste. I don’t take many high spreads like this one. If Ohio manage just 13 points, they should cover.

Maryland (+11) @ West Virginia is interesting. Maryland has impressed me with a big win over Navy while West Virginia just lost to Marshall. This could be a rebound game for WVU, but I think Maryland with +11 is enticing. I’ll wait to see what Brandon likes because his specialty is finding good underdogs to take. After looking at the injury report though, you will want to hold off …

Sooners: Oh yeah!

I’m playing two games today and that is Oklahoma (-9.5) over Florida State and Alabama (-11.5) over Penn State. I’m sorry I couldn’t do a preview for the top 4 games that were on tap this week, which I said my piece about early in the week (it was a crazy week work-wise). Based on that little write up, I hope some of you were able to capitalize off the Sooners big win.

The only college game that I previewed was Michigan (+4) vs. Notre Dame since that’s what people indicated they were most interested in. I personally didn’t take this game since I didn’t want to bet against the Irish at home, but I picked Michigan +4 and that pick is looking pretty good with Michigan up 21-17 with 5 minutes left.

The Sooners absolutely demolished Florida State as I predicted would happen. People got down on them too much after they didn’t whip Utah State. I knew Bob Stoops would have them ready this game. Here’s what I had to write:

Despite Oklahoma not crushing Utah State this past week, I think Oklahoma has no problem covering the 9 points in this game. Florida State gives up a lot of points. Last year Florida State gave up 37 to Florida, 38 to Miami, 49 to Georgia Tech, 27 to North Carolina, 40 to Clemson, and 26 to Maryland. At home, Oklahoma is due for at least 35 and I don’t think the Seminoles can put up 24 against a Sooners defense that will be better prepared by coach this week at home.

Oklahoma is up 47-10 at the time of me advocating my foresight.

In other Pass Rush news, Brandon’s pick of South Florida …

Denard Robinson: The next great dual-threat QB?

MICHIGAN WOLVERINES (+4) VS. NOTRE DAME FIGHTING IRISH

I’m not sure if I’ll be able to preview all the top 4 college football games this week, but I’ll do my best. NFL Picks are hot off the press. We start off with the game that people voted that they were looking forward to most. I previewed Notre Dame before their game against Purdue, which they won 23-13. Although I picked ND and they covered the 10.5 points, I thought they would score more points than 23 which was disappointing. ND’s defense was phenomenal, they got great play from their running game, and the quarterback play was consistent (19/26, 205 yards, 1 TD).

However, I was more impressed with Michigan’s 30-10 win over Connecticut. I didn’t preview Michigan’s team last week and I didn’t want to pick the Michigan vs. Connecticut game because while Connecticut has been competitive in the Big East (8-5 last season and 10-2 ATS), Michigan has played poorly in past years and I didn’t want to bet on a historically bad team that was just 6-7 last season. However, I had a feeling that may turn around with Rich Rodriguez this season and it look like it has.

Denard Robinson was ridiculous — video footage — (19/22, 186 yards, 1 passing touchdown, 197 rushing yards, 1 rushing TD). Michigan had 473 yards of total offense compared to ND’s 358 yards. Michigan D’s was great against the pass, but could have done a better job against the run, giving up 4.6 YPC compared to ND’s 3.2 YPC. Michigan had a very poor defense last year — the 3rd worst in the Big Ten, giving up 393 YPG. They gave …

Current Record:

1. South Carolina Winner for 1 unit

2. Western Michigan Push

3. Washington Loss for 1.1 units

4. Missouri Loss for 1.1 units

5. Teaser (2to1 odds) Maryland, Boise State, and Over Winner for 2 units

Overall Profit 0.8 units

Week 2:

1. South Florida +15 at Florida: Overreaction beware! There are several games this week where there seems to be an overreaction.  For example Oklahoma vs. FSU, Memphis vs. ECU, and USF v UF.  Teams that played poorly or extremely well in week 1 are now either favored by more or less than you would have expected going into week 1. In the game at hand, Florida played very poorly in the opener. However, that was expected by most.  There are going to be some growing pains for this Gator team and their poor play on Saturday didn’t surprise me at all. I do expect to see much better play for all critical positions this week verse USF.  However, USF is a team that I fully expect to have one of their best years.  I think USF has a great chance to win this game outright. They return most of their squad from a year ago. They do have a new coach this year, Skip Holtz, and he gets the most out of his squads and I expect much of the same in South Florida this year.  Look for USF to keep this game close throughout and I wouldn’t be shocked to see an upset here.

The Play: South Florida +15 for 1 unit

Kent St (+17.5) at Boston College: A well balanced offensive attacking Kent State team travels to BC for a game that BC may be overlooking as they face VT a week from …

What a game. Boise State tops Virginia Tech 33-30 on the last drive of the game in dramatic fashion like they always do. What a way to end week one with a huge win. Going large on the big game of the week with a sure-fire teaser of Boise State +10 with the over 43.5. I put the whole booty on the line with this pick as it was my first 3.5/5 pick that I handed out this week. Fact. I was about to make it a 4/5, but last year’s TCU game kept me from not getting too cocky on the over.

Once Boise was up 17-0 at the end of the first, everyone was loving that call. Tech made it real interesting though in the second half. Now you know why I’m obsessed with teasers. You also know why I liked Virginia Tech in my initial write up, but gave Tech to win outright a 1.5/5 while giving the teaser a 3.5/5. That’s how the point system works folks. Brandon even added Maryland into his teaser for a 2:1 win.

We’ll be working on week 2 shortly.

Best of luck to everyone!

Now to a very important message from Rocky

…

Four great games are on tap week 2 and I like Alabama.

Here are the big games that are on tap for week 2 of college football:

• No. 20 Florida State @ No. 7 Oklahoma (-9)
• Michigan @ Notre Dame (-4)
• No. 13 Miami @ No. 2 Ohio State (-9.5)
• No. 19 Penn State @ No. 1 Alabama (-11.5)

We’ll be sure to preview those games. Here are my early thoughts on those games.

I really like Alabama next week. I would absolutely love this spread at -9.5. I think they should win by 14-21. At 11.5, PSU has a shot at covering, but I doubt it.

If Michigan was at home, I would absolutely love that pick, but ND’s home-field advantage is undeniable. I thought Michigan would get 3 in this one, so the 4 is generous. It looks like Rich Rodriguez found his next Pat White in Denard Robinson. Robinson was lights out in the Connecticut game (19/22, 186 passing yards, 196 rushing yards, 1 passing TD, 1 rushing TD) and if he can repeat that type of performance, Michigan could pull off the upset in South Bend.

I think Ohio State wins, but I count on Miami on keeping the game within reach.

Despite Oklahoma not crushing Utah State this past week, I think Oklahoma has no problem covering the 9 points in this game. Florida State gives up a lot of points. Last year Florida State gave up 37 to Florida, 38 to Miami, 49 to Georgia Tech, 27 to North Carolina, 40 to Clemson, and 26 to Maryland. At home, Oklahoma is due for at least 35 and I don’t think the Seminoles can put up 24 against a Sooners defense that will be …

I'm flip-flopping, Boise is just too damn good.

Week 1 College Football Recap

Like I mentioned throughout all this week, there weren’t any picks that I loved this week. I only played a handful of games very light. I got all jacked up when I went 2-0 on Thursday night thanks to Brandon’s call of South Carolina -14 and my play of Pitt +3.5. I then gave some of that back when Washington failed to cover by 3 and Cincinnati didn’t show up for me against Fresno, but if you were to listen to Brandon, he liked Fresno in that one and he nailed that call. However, a sweet 2-to-1 odds 4-team teaser made the week a fantastic one for me. My teaser card hit with LSU -2.5, Notre Dame -3.5, Missouri -4, and Colorado -4.5. My teaser of TCU -6/Over 43.5 also hit, but I did not touch that game. When it comes to teasers, I often strike gold. For many of the week 1 college football games, I recommended teasing the line down (Notre Dame, TCU, and Colorado) since I simply did not like the high spreads.

Virginia Tech vs. Boise State – Final Word

I’m about to flip-flop on this pick. I originally came out and called Virginia Tech to win based on two key factors: (1) VT’s triple threat running attack may cause trouble for Boise State; and (2) VT is playing this came close to home (at FedEx Field in Washington DC). However, the more I think about this matchup, the more I like Boise State. If Virginia Tech wants to win this one, they will have to keep this game low scoring. They simply cannot beat Boise in a shootout.

If Virginia …