College Football Picks

We may not get an easier win all year then we did with South Carolina. There were some nerves that had to be worked out on the first couple drives of the game, but once the flow of the game started there was no doubt who was in control.  1-0 with 1 unit of profit is a good way to start, but we have a long way to go in the season so lets stay focused on get a couple more winners on Saturday.

Western Michigan (+24) vs Michigan State: I am taking a shot here with WMU, for one main reason, a team must prove something to me before they go laying 24 points to anyone.  WMU returns 7 seven starters on the offensive side of the ball, but not their QB or RB. However, Alex Carder is a solid replacement for the great Hiller and will rely on one of the best offensive lines in the country and a solid core of receivers.  On the defensive side of things, WMU returns 6 guys, but more importantly several key guys in the secondary. MSU returns 7 starters on offense, including their QB Cousins.  MSU will be solid on the offensive side of the ball, but remember this team was not all that great last year so they do need to take some big strides this year.  Therefore, look for this game to be pretty high scoring, but I think WMU will have several opportunities to score and keep this well within range.

The play WMU +24 for 1 unit

Illinois vs Missouri -12: Let me say this up front, I am going against the conventional pick and line movement in this one.  Missouri opened as a 13.5-point chalk, but …

VICTORY!!! BYAH!!!

THE PASS RUSH started off the opening season with a 2-0 record ATS. It always feels good to start the season with two wins during Thursday’s prime-time openers. Brandon provided a hell of a pick with his call of South Carolina -14 over Southern Miss. If you took that one, you were loving it from the get go as it was a money in the bank cover with a 41-13 win.  You can’t beat a 14-point cover when you’re already giving up 14 points.

My pick in Pitt +3.5, on the other hand, made you sweat it out. It was ugly, but a win is a win. Utah’s D stepped up in this one, especially their run D, which was rather weak last season. Utah’s D held Pitt to just 2.3 yards per carry. Pitt’s D likewise stepped up in this one too as they forced 3 turnovers including a blocked punt.

In the 4th quarter, Pitt was down by 11, 24-13. Future first-round draft choice WR Jon Balwin finally decided to show up to score a 44-yard touchdown and a 2-point conversion to put Pitt back in the money with 5 minutes left. With Pitt down 24-21, it was good to be back in the money.

There’s a reason I liked the 3.5 points. I knew that if Pitt would lose, they would lose by exactly 3 points. Fact. I knew I would not like this spread anything short of 3.5 points. Then what happens will drive any football bettor crazy. Pitt has the ball, drives down, and kicks a FG to send it into overtime. At this point, we just want Pitt to shank the field goal so we could get the cover …

Coach Wulff will likely improve WSU in his 3rd year as coach.

WASHINGTON STATE COUGARS (+18.5) @ OKLAHOMA STATE COWBOYS

I’m doing one more week 1 college football preview before shifting gears and getting into the week 1 NFL lines. This time I want to take a look at Washington State @ Oklahoma State (-18.5). I was eying this line up early when the Cowboys were 14.5 favorites and the line has moved to 18.5 which shows the public is pounding the Cougars.

Washington State is absolutely terrible! They posted a 1-11 record last year, but managed to come out 5-7 ATS. That’s because they were mostly spotted between 20-45 points every single game! They gave up an average of 38.5 PPG while scoring just 12 PPG. The Cougars D was dead last in the country giving up 512 yards per game! On the upside, Washington State can’t get any worse as they are returning 15 starters from last season and are in the 3rd year of Coach Paul Wulff’s tenure.

The question now becomes, can Oklahoma State be as good as they were the last two seasons because if they are, I’m all over the Cowboys in this one. Despite OSU’s 9-3 regular season record last year, they were just 5-6-1 ATS. They had a balanced attack last year gaining about both 180 yards rushing and passing and putting up an average of 28 PPG while allowing 21 PPG. Oklahoma State will be forced to replace QB Zac Robinson with junior QB Brandon Weeden, who happens to be 26-years-old and Weeden has a cannon for an arm.

The Cowboys are also replacing four starters on their offensive line including first-round draft pick Russull Okung. The Cowboys also have …

Can Scotty McKnight help lead the Buffaloes to a winning season?

There’s two more games that I wanted to get around to before the college football season kicks off. Colorado vs. Colorado State and Oklahoma State vs. Washington State. Why am I previewing these games? Because Colorado State and Washington State are terrible teams which has me thinking that easy money could be made, so let’s check that out. I loved betting against the Browns, Raiders, Rams, and Lions last year because it was easy money. Let’s see if we can pick against the weaker college teams early this season.

COLORADO BUFFALOES (-11.5) @ COLORADO STATE RAMS

We’ll start with the Rams since their usually atrocious. The Rams had a 3-9 record last season (2-9 ATS). They started off with 3 wins, including a win over Colorado, then went 9-0. They had an impressive win over Nevada, but then got crushed by the likes of BYU, TCU, San Diego State, Air Force, and UNLV.

Like Brandon suggested, target teams to bet against that are losing a lot of offensive linemen. Colorado State is returning just one lineman and they’ll be forced go with a true freshmen QB Pete Thomas. Thomas was a highly touted recruit who threw for 5500 yards and 52 TDs in just three years of high school ball, so the kid has some skills. See highlights below.  RB Leonard Mason will do his best to help take pressure off Thomas in his first collegiate start.

Colorado was also 3-9 last season, but at least they played tough against the spread with a 7-5 record ATS. They also have 17 starters returning so they’re poised to surprise a lot of people this year. They were probably best …

Gentlemen, we are one day away from embarking on another season of football. The day is finally upon us. For the past three weeks I’ve been going through the week 1 college football spreads to see if I can strike gold early. I hate to be the bearer of bad news and inform you that I haven’t been able to spot any “must take” spreads where I can easily strike “pay dirt.” I’ll be playing these games very conservatively since I firmly place them all in “toss up” territory. Here is an overview of the games that we’ve previewed.

Before we get started, you’ll want to go ahead and sign up for our NFL Pick ‘Em League on Yahoo. Click the link for details or simply check out the section on the right-hand side of the page for log in and password information. You’ll get a shot at THE PASS RUSH title with your name engraved in glory and a custom NFL Shop t-shirt of your choosing if you win the league, all of which is free.

WEEK 1 COLLEGE FOOTBALL PICKS AGAINST THE SPREAD

1.) Pitt (+3.5) over Utah — Confidence 2.5/5

I like Pitt’s D and running game (Dion Lewis) in this one, but with a fresh face at QB and a long trip out West, I’m not ready to be too confident in them just yet. I’m also a Pennsylvania native and I’d be lying if I didn’t tell you that I was slightly bias in taking Pitt.

2.) South Carolina (-14) over Southern Miss

This Brandon’s pick. If you want to read more about it, you’ll have to visit the link. However, like UNC, South Carolina has some suspension issues of their own which you …

UNC has one nasty defense, but they're riddled with controversy.

I’ve done over a half dozen college football previews. I got a head start about two weeks ago looking at the Week 1 college football lines to see if there’s any games that I really like. I haven’t been able to spot any games which I would give a 4/5 rating (worthy of a nice bet), but I’m cautiously optimistic in Cincy -1.5 over Fresno State and Pitt +3.5 over Utah. I’m cautious with both teams on the road, but you’ll have to read those reports to understand what I’m seeing in those two games. I tend to be rather conservative betting on the first few weeks of football until I get a good feel for the year. You’ll also want to read Brandon’s week 1 picks as he like South Carolina -14 over Southern Miss. What I wanted to do today was preview a big Saturday Night primetime game between LSU and UNC, which takes place in the Georgia Dome in Atlanta.

No. 21 LSU TIGERS VS. No. 18 NORTH CAROLINA TAR HEELS

The line on this one has moved from LSU -1.5 to UNC -1.5 and reports were that 80% of the bets were on LSU -1.5, but for some reason, the line was moved to UNC -1.5. The line was then taken down due the controversy going on in UNC that is going to be a major distraction for this squad.  Most of UNC’s top players are being investigated for receiving improper benefits from NFL agents. Although an official announcement has not yet been made, DT Marvin Austin and UNC’s top wideout WR Greg Little are being targeted and may end up being suspended, but …

The wait is finally over and its time to get started with College Football games set to start this week.  Like last year I will release plays as a 1 unit play or 2 unit play.  Primarily for the first few weeks, most of my plays will be 1 unit bets as no matter how great or terrible a team looks on paper, getting out on the field and actually playing the game can sometimes mean a whole different story.  There are several teams that I have already labeled as teams that will get my money right off the bat, but some of them I will have to take a wait and see approach.  I will be updating this post several times over the course of the week so make sure to check back often.

Game 1: Southern Miss vs South Carolina (-14): In my opinion, this is South Carolina’s best squad in a few years.  SC returns 9 starters, including  their QB, on the offensive side of the ball.  Most of their OL returns as well, which should help provide some good running lanes and security for their QB.  On the other side of the ball, they return 7 starters from their average defense last year.  While S.Miss does return 9 starters on defense, a defense that was average at best, they only return 3 starters on offense, including their QB, from their squad a year ago.  Their OL ranks almost dead last in offensive starts.  This inexperience will not help against a strong SEC team.  S.Miss draws a very tough spot to open up the year, on the road in the SEC.  S.Miss will struggle on to score points on offense and the quickness of the SC’s defense …