College Football Picks

Before we get into this game, remember to sign up for THE PASS RUSH’s pick ’em league.  Here are quick links to my NFL picks and Brandon’s NCAA picks.

#25 WEST VIRGINA (7-2) @ #5 CINCINNATI (9-0) -9.5

We have a tremendous college football game for Friday night.  The Mountaineers will travel to Cincinnati to face the undefeated Bearcats.  Let’s try to break down this matchup and see which team is a good pick against the spread.  Cincinnati has been better against the spread this year than West Virginia: Cincinnati is 6-3 ATS and West Virginia is 2-6 ATS.

Cincinatti is averaging 40 PPG and allowing 16.4 PPG.  West Virginia is averaging 28.3 PPG and allowing 20.9 PPG.  When these teams met last year, Cincinnati won 26-23.  Cincinnati has a much better team this year though.  Cincinatti has a clear advantage with their passing game.  Cincy is averaging 355 yards per game, 100 more yards per game than West Virginia’s passing average.  West Virginia’s edge is their rushing defense.  WVU gives up 120 rushing yards per game (3.4 YPR) compared to Cincy’s 172 yard average (4.2 YPR), but that doesn’t matter that much since Cincinnati is a pass first, run second team.

Tony Pike might get some action this game, but it will be backup Zach Callaros that will be getting the start for Cincinnatti once again.  No worry about Pike sitting out,  Callaros is playing just as well, maybe even better than Pike was.  Callaros is averaging 12.3 yards per passing attempt and has 10 TDs and just 1 INT.

I would have been all over Cincinnati if I didn’t see what happened to them last week.  Cincinnati barely topped Connecticut last week, winning by a score …

Overall Profit 3.9 units (updated 11/11)

We start the week early again with a game on Tuesday night. We hit last Tuesday with Bowling Green over Buffalo, so lets keep our strong Tuesday night plays rolling.

1) Ohio at Buffalo (-1.5) This Buffalo team plays hard every single time they take the field. Ohio was a great play early in the season, but are simply not playing the type of ball they once were. Ohio faces an angry Buffalo squad after their loss from a week ago to Bowling Green. Ohio has also been plagued by the injury bug and are probably looking at starting their 3rd string QB tonight. If Buffalo can establish the run this game will be over at halftime. Lay the points with Buffalo.

Ohio 27 Buffalo 24 L for 1.1 units

GAME OF THE YEAR #3: FRESNO STATE (+7) at Nevada for 2 units

This line simply blows me away. I have Fresno State as a 9 point favorite!! Strength of schedule alone makes Fresno State a strong play. Just look at who Fresno State has played and how they faired in those games: on the road in Wisconsin lose in the final seconds, lose at home in a competitive match with Boise State, play Cincinnati tough to the final quarter, and then have won 5 straight, including three road wins. Nevada also post three early loses, but against teams not nearly as strong as what Fresno faced: blowout loss on the road to Notre Dame, a terrible loss to Colorado State on the road (who by the way has lost 7 straight games, including a loss to UNLV, who Nevada beat by 35), and a loss at home to a weak Missouri squad. Both …

Overall Profit 8.5 Units (updated 11/4)

The week starts early again with games beginning on Tuesday.

1) Bowling Green (+3) at Buffalo for 1 unit. Game is on Tuesday.

Bowling Green 30 Buffalo 29 W for 1 unit.

2) Miami (OH) at Temple (-14) for 2 units. Game is on Thursday.

Temple 34 Miami  (OH) 32 L for 2.2 units

3) Illinois at Minnesota (-6) for 1 unit.

Illinois 35 Minnesota 32 L for 1.1 units

4) Fresno State (-8) at Idaho for 1 unit.

Fresno State 31 Idaho 21 W for 1 unit.

5) Oklahoma at Nebraska (+6) for 1 unit.

Nebraska 10 Oklahoma 3 W for 1 unit.

6) Rice at SMU (-18) for 1 unit.

SMU 31 Rice 28 L for 1.1 units

7) Boise State -21 at Louisiana Tech for 1 unit.

Boise State 45 Louisiana Tech 35 L for 1.1 units

More plays will follow, but wanted to get some of the early picks out there to you as soon as possible so you can find the best line.

Good Luck.…

Overall Units of Profit is now at 7.5 units

I told you we would be back on track after dropping a couple units last week. Saturday was filled with excitement as the second Play of Year had us all on the edge of our seats until the final seconds. We benefited from a tough defensive stand as Akron threw three incomplete passes from the three yard line and then punted out of their own endzone. A 24yard punt gave NIU the ball on Akron’s 27. With just over 3 minutes to play NIU was up 20-10, one point away from a cover. However, several rushing plays later NIU hits paydirt and we are all cashing winning tickets!!

I also gave you two underdog outright blowout winners with Auburn and Oregon. Both games were never in doubt. Kent State started a bit sluggish, but eventually won easily by 12 over a struggling Western Michigan squad. Air Force gave us our fifth winner of the day as the Colorado State Rams never could get their offense moving against that tough AF defense.

Our lone loss came with Kentucky blowing a 7 point half-time lead. However, I will take 5-1 every week for the rest of my life and retire early. As I have said before, you will be hard pressed to find a free service that works and produces these types of results for you on a consistent basis. I hope all of you cashed some big tickets and are building those bankrolls daily.

There are several midweek games this week and I am already analyzing them and getting ready to release several more winners.

Thanks for all the comments. And a special thanks to those who have BOUGHT ME A DRINK!…

I’m going to throw out a bunch of random college picks.  Again, my forte is the NFL.  Brandon’s focus is college football and you can read his college football picks here, but I want to see how these picks work out.  I didn’t do a lot of homework on each game, so do you own due dillegence on each game before betting on it.  Good luck!

Started off the week hitting 2/3 at 12:00!  Ended today 4-3, so we booked some profits.  GT and Cincinnati were clearly the strongest games here and those were big hits.  Going into Sunday with more ammunition.

Brandon’s picks were stupid good today, 5-1 on the day, 6-2 on the week!

Cincinnatti -15.5 over SYRACUSE — Syracuse is the Raiders of the NCAA, I love betting against them. Cincinatti has too much offense and defense for Syracuse to handle.  I cashed in on WVU -10 over Syracuse (34-13) 2 weeks ago and expect similar results in this one.  Cincy is 7-1 ATS in their last 8 conference games. (W)

CIN 28 – SYR 7

Ohio -6 over BALL ST — Brandon loves betting on Ohio this year, but they’ve had some tough losses in the past few weeks.  I think they get back on track against an awful 1-6 Ball St. team. (L)

OHIO 20 – BALL 17

WISCONSIN -7 over Purdue — Wisconsin plays solid football at home and Purdue is getting too much credit after their win against Ohio St. (W)

WIS 37 – PUR 0

HOUSTON -6.5 over Souther Mississippi — I love Houston this year and you have a chance to take them at home at less than a touchdown.  Houston is 5-1 ATS and averaging 40 PPG.  Souther Miss …

Overall Profit 7.5 units (updated 10/31)

On Saturday we won 4.9 units!! We went 5-1 and hit my College Game of the Year Release #2!!

I told you the college week started early! It’s Tuesday and we start building that bankroll for the weekend tonight.

1.) East Carolina (-5) at Memphis for 1 unit: All my key indicators have ECU as  a 7.5 point favorite. ECU is only 1-3 on the road this year, but in their defense they  have played very strong home teams in WVU, UNC, and SMU. Memphis does not fall into that category of strong home teams. ECU’s strength of schedule over Memphis alone makes them a strong play. ECU is 3-1 in conference play while Memphis is 1-3. I just don’t see Memphis being able to move the ball against a strong ECU defense. ECU rolls 34-17.

ECU 39 Memphis 19 W for 1 unit

2.) GAME OF THE YEAR RELEASE #2: Akron at Northern Illinois (-11) for 2 units.

Let me repeat, I hate using that phrase, but this game lines up in all the key categories I examine when looking at a game. This line should have NIU favored by 17 points. Akron is playing their third consecutive road game and you know I love playing against teams that have traveled that much. Plus Akron is playing terrible and has no reason to be inspired enough to get up for this battle with NIU. Plus examining key line movement indicates “smart money” is on this game as well. NIU rolls in an absolute blowout. Final Score 49-10.

NIU 26 Akron 10 W for 2 units.

3) Western Michigan at Kent State (-2.5) for 1 unit.

Kent State 26  Western Michigan 14 W for …

Overall Profit 2.7 units

Weekly Loss -1.9 units

Thanks for all the comments this week. Unfortunately, we ended our run of two consecutive profitable weeks. On the good side, my Game of Year with Georgia Tech hit easily by winning 34-9. I was spot on in that game as I called the final score to be 34-7 easily covering the 5 point spread. In all honesty I wanted to tell you to bet a minimum of 5 units on that game, but that would totally manipulate all my numbers and make it appear as if the only reason I was a profitable capper is because I hit one big game. Week 9 starts on Tuesday with East Carolina and Memphis.

I also told you to pay your mortgage by playing Green Bay as they crushed the Browns. So I hope you made a little money there as well.

Congrats to Vegas Martin as he dominated the NFL. As I have said before, you will be hard pressed to find a better free service on the net then here at THEPASSRUSH.

Good Luck.…