College Football Picks

Current Profit/Loss -1.4 units

Nice win last night and looking to start rolling as we get into the third weekend of college football. I know you can’t make a living playing against home dogs, but tonight I just think Fresno State is simply out-classed. Tough spot for Fresno State here coming off that difficult road loss to Wisconsin in double overtime. Now they return home to face a Boise State team that is much better than Wisconsin or Fresno State in just about every statistical category. Currently Boise State seems to be in what I will term the “Killer Position.” Boise State literally destroyed an Oregon team that will feel the effects of that loss for the rest of the season. They completely crushed Miami-Ohio and covered the 38.5 point spread. Tonight they take on Fresno State in a very vulnerable position (still feeling the blow from last week). Plus add to that, that Boise State loves playing in these nationally televised games and will be pumped up to show off their talent again. Fresno State has not faced a defense as tough as Boise State. Fresno State’s QB looked great in the first half verse the Badgers, throwing 3 TDs, but threw 3 Ints in the second half. I just see Boise State really coming out prepared, focused, and determined to show they belong in another BCS game. Remember this, Boise State will likely not play in a bowl game if the suffer even one loss, so each game is that much more important to them.

The Play: Boise State (-7.5) for 2 units…

Current Profit/Loss -2.4 Units:

Georgia Tech vs Miami UNDER 54.5:

This number appears pretty high for two teams that run the ball more often then they go through the air. GT has switched to the option offense and their QB has looked very poor so far this year throwing the ball. Miami’s D will likely put 8 to 9 in the box to help shut down the run and force GT’s QB to beat them through the air. Miami is also at their best on the ground, if last week verse Florida State was indicator of things left to come this year. I also think with this being an important tough conference game the defenses will both be on lock down tonight. Look for this score to be much lower than either of these teams previous contests. I see the score being more like 30-14, Miami. Even though I like Miami, I am not playing them because of that very tough, physical battle they had with Florida State last out, there still may be some lingering effect.

The Play UNDER 54.5   1 unit

Good Luck.…

UPDATE: For any of you still reading this blog from last year, thanks for continuing to read and I look forward to providing you with some solid analysis and insight for several weeks ahead. I have recently moved to Las Vegas and feel my handicapping has become much more focused and accurate. I have also changed my rating system to a 1 unit or 2 unit scale. This system keeps me much more honest. Basically what I am saying is that it keeps me from giving you a 1 unit play that is more of a lean than a solid play. With this rating system I am forced to only play games that I am very confident about. I will keep a running total throughout the rest of the college year, including juice as well. Good Luck to all and I welcome all comments and feedback.

Stanford at Wake Forest (-3): There are several reasons to play WF on Saturday. First, west coast to east coast traveling teams, including Stanford on Saturday, have really struggled when being asked to play the 12ET game. Remember last year, Maryland upset Cal when Cal was asked to play the 12ET, and that is simply one example. Secondly, as a bettor you need to take a close look at teams that played really well during week 1 and teams that played poorly week 1. Stanford on paper looked like they played really well. Now Stanford is a solid team and getting better with solid coaching, but playing at Washington State is not asking a whole lot. Standford was clearly the better team and they played like it. They will not be able to run and pass the ball with the ease they had …

Clemson vs Georgia Tech (-5)

Simply not convinced Clemson is ready to play this caliber of a team yet. Clemson looked great on the highlight reel last weekend with their win over Middle Tennessee State, but those highlights came primarily from special teams, which helped give them their double digit win. That won’t happen tonight. Clemson did put up 300 plus yards of total offense, but against who, NOBODY, their QB also threw a couple INTs against a very weak defense. While GT also played a nobody last week, they easily moved the ball and their offense looked very solid. Both teams return several starters on both sides of the ball, but I still give the advantage in that category to GT. While I wouldn’t make this your play of the year, I do believe GT has a considerable edge in talent and are just a better team at this point in the early college season.…

#3 USC TROJANS (10) -7 @ #6 OHIO STATE BUCKEYES (1-0)

Date: Saturday, September 12, 8:00 p.m. EST (ESPN)

It’s week 2 in college football and there’s already a blockbuster matchup between USC and Ohio State.  Ohio State is at home, but the Trojans are 7-point favorites in this one.

All eyes are focused on top recruit QB Terrell Pryor, who is entering his sophomore year hyped to be the “next Pat White.”  USC has lost a lot of talent  on defense this year (Ray Maualuga, Brian Cushing, Clay Matthews, Fili Moala, Cary Harris, Kevin Ellison and Kaluka Maiava).  However, USC still has the best safety in college football, Taylor Mays, who has the job of containing Terrell Pryor.

Ohio State barely escaped with a win against Navy at home, winning by a mere 4 points (31-27).  Pryor had an solid game passing.  Pryor threw for 174 yards,completing 67% of his passes, with 1 passing TD, 1 INT.  Pyor also  gained 30 yards and 1 TD on the ground on 6 rushing attempts.  Navy was able to rack up 342 yards that game though, 156 of them coming on ground.  If you like OSU in this one, you have to be concerned about Ohio St.’s defense against a tough USC running game.

USC, on the other hand, dismantled San Jose State (56-3) with 620 yards of offense and only giving up 121 yards and just 9 rushing yards.

Remember this name: Joe McKnight.  #4 for USC had 145 yards and 2 TDs on just 10 carries in the game.  He’ll be giving Ohio State a lot of problems.  Ohio St. has a very weak front 7 and they haven’t shown that they can stop the run.  …

Happy New Years.  It’s January 1, which means the real bowl games start and we’re no longer subjected to the Wyoming Stamps.com Bowl.   Today we have the Rose Bowl and the Orange Bowl.  Let’s preview the games.

ROSE BOWL: USC -9 VS. PENN STATE

I’m shocked that the Torjans are 9-point favorites.  I came out thinking they would be favored by 3.  Both teams are 11-1, but I’m more impressed with what Penn State has done this season.  PSU averages 40 PPG and allowed 12 PPG.  USC scores 37 PPG and allows 8 PPG.  These teams have one common opponent: Oregon State.  Penn State killed them in their 2nd game, USC lost to them in 3rd game, but I wouldn’t give that too much weight.  The Trojans have an obvious advantage since this is essentially a home game.  72% of the public is taking the USC spread, but 63% are taking the Penn State moneyline at +270.  These teams match up pretty well.  It should be a great game and it should be close.  I think taking the points is the way to go, but I’m bias as a PA native.

ORANGE BOWL: VIRGINIA TECH VS. CINCINNATI -2

Cincinnati is 11-2 and Virginia Tech is 9-4.  I like Virginia Tech in this one because I think they have a much better defense.  They allow only 17 PPG to Cincinnati’s 20 PPG and they’ve had a much tougher schedule.  They’ve also only given up 9.7 PPG in their last 3.  The betting public is split down the middle on this one, but 8/12 experts like VT and so do I.…

There is a critical bowl game today that should be a good indicator of how strong or weak the Big 10 really is this year. With Northwestern playing very strongly against Missouri and covering easily the Big 10 could be a good play throughout the rest of the bowl games, as most are getting plenty of points. Minnesota a +7 to +9 point underdog, depending on where you make the bet, with a solid showing could give bettors a reason to take the points with the Big 10 throughout the rest of the bowl games, even though I have initially thought the Big 10 teams where clearly outmatched in all of their games. If you are looking for a small play I would take the over the in the Minnesota/Kansas game at 58. Minnesota stuggled down the stretch losing their last four giving up an average of over 40 points. Kansas went 2-2 over their final four giving up an average of 40 per as well. If Minnesota does play well today and cover or win, you may want to rethink most experts opinion that the Big 10 is weak.

Plays for Today:

1. Minnesota/Kansas over 58

2. Boston College -6 v. Vanderbilt

3. LSU v. Georgia Tech -4

Good Luck.…