College Football Picks

Week 6 Picks:

1. Utah State (+6.5) vs. BYU: I am just not convinced by the play of BYU so far this year. USt is 5-0 ats so far this year and has been very competitive in every game. Further, this an in-state rivarly game that should bring the best out of USt. USt has one of the best defenses in the country so far this year. BYU is starting a freshman QB tonight, who has actually faired better with the offense so far this year than their regular starter. However, I still think both teams stick to the running game as the primary source of offense. I just think USt is the better team right now and I will take the points here. Play on USt +6.5 for 1 unit. BYU 6 Utah State 3 winner

2. Vanderbilt at MISSOURI (-7): I think Missouri is finally on the right track and are set for a big blowout win. I know most bettors don’t like the term “due,” but Missouri is due. They have talent, have been injured, but are getting healthier each week. I think they had a huge win over UCF last week as they were in a very difficult spot to come away with a win. Their QB is starting to get healthier each week. On the other hand, this is a tough spot for Vandy, a team I believe is on the ropes. Vandy has not scored more than 13 points against any Division 1 school so far this year. Vandy is playing their second road game in as many weeks and have to be beat up after last week’s game against Georgia. I just think this is great spot for Missouri to come out and …

Solid start to the week with a winner on Thursday with Washington. Hopefully, we can turn that positive momentum into a winning weekend.

CLEMSON (-7) vs. Boston College: I have recently made several posts about situational plays and at first glance you may think I would lean BC here as Clemson comes off the tough loss to FSU. However, I think we have an overreaction here against Clemson. Yes, Clemson is coming off a tough loss verse FSU, but Clemson was a 15 point underdog so winning outright was probably out of reach anyways. I am sure Clemson was disappointed with the loss, but not devastated as some teams may be. More importantly though, you cannot deny the talent mismatch on the field in this ACC battle. BC doesn’t even have a decent loss yet. They get beat at home verse Miami, who is weak at best, and then lost last week on the road at Northwestern, clearly the 5th or 6th best team in the Big 10. BC’s lone win comes against Maine, half the teams in the Lingerie Football League could beat them (OK maybe not, but you get my point). I think there are too many mismatches on both sides of the ball. So long as Clemson comes with some general incentive to win this game they should easily cover this spread.  PLAY ON CLEMSON (-7) for 1 unit.

Arizona St at California (+2). Situational play with Cal here. Type this game into google and the one continual theme is that Cal is in a must win position. I hate when people say that, but Cal does need to win here or a bowl game may be out of reach. Overall Cal has played ok. I think …

Stanford at Washington (+7): Much more of my analysis of games, after taking last year off, comes down to spot/situational plays. Tonight we have a perfect example of a great situational play. Stanford comes off a huge win over the Trojans, but do benefit from having 12 days to recover from that big win. However, I said in an earlier post that I don’t believe Stanford is that great of a football team and I am going to stick with that theory and play against them here. Stanford also plays their first road game of the year tonight in a hostile stadium on national TV. Besides the fact that Washington is playing at home with 12 days rest there are several other reasons to like them. First, this is a must win. If you look at their schedule, a defeat tonight could smell big trouble as they play at Oregon, home vs USC, at Arizona, home vs Oregon St, and at California. So look for Washington to come into this game really focused and prepared to make a statement. Second, this is the first PAC-10 conference game, so further motivation. Finally, I like their defense. They are weak against the run, but very good against the pass. If they can force a couple interceptions, Nunes is averaging one per game, then it could set the stage for a close finish. I will take the points here with Washington. PLAY ON WASHINGTON (+7) FOR 1 UNIT.…

TEMPLE (+7) at Penn State: I took a stand against PSU last week verse Navy and got crushed. At first I thought I would avoid this game, but after analyzing the game and the teams I decided to take a second stand against PSU. PSU has probably played about as well as anyone could have expected. Temple on the other hand has clearly under performed. PSU finally got their first win last week and therefore it is a potential let down spot, yes again, for them. Temple should be more than ready and focused for this in-state rivarly. So really what this comes down to for me is which team is more likely to play their best game and for me that is Temple. Stats for both teams in pretty much all offensive and defensive categories fall below average, but I think Temple can improve and should do so on Saturday. PLAY ON TEMPLE for 1 UNIT.

ARMY/WAKE FOREST OVER 55: The key to this game is obviously the offenses. The two defenses have combined to give up over a 150 points in just 5 games total. Army is terrible against the pass and should not be able to stay with the speed of WF. On the other side, WF is terrible against the run and we know Army is going to run the ball over 90% of the time. I think both teams have the ability to score in the low 30s, and it is possible if WF’s passing game gets going early they could score have a hundred themselves. BET 1 UNIT ON THE OVER 55.…

Couldn’t believe some of the lines that I came across this week, here are some of my favorite picks, grabbed them all early:

Virginia @ TCU -17 W

Kansas State +17 @ Oklahoma W

Utah @ Arizona State -3 W

Temple @ Penn State -7 W

South Florida -10 @ Ball State L

Bowling Green +22 @ Virginia Tech L

Fresno State @ Tulsa -5.5 L

GA Tech -7/Southern Miss +11 L

4-4-0
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NAVY (+7) at Penn State: Too many reasons not to take a chance on Navy in this great spot. First, PSU comes off a heartbreaking loss to Virginia last week. A game they should have won as they benefitted from four Virginia turnovers, but missed four field goals. Second, Navy comes off a bye after playing pretty poorly in Ireland verse ND two weeks ago. Third, PSU is still a depleted football team and facing that triple option of Navy would not be easy for any team. I look for Navy to ground and pound PSU early, which should lead to very close game. Finally, you have to wonder where PSU is mentally after the crazy off-season, a tough loss at home during week 1, and a heartbreaking loss in week 2. Even for a good football team this would be a tough spot. Play 2 units on Navy (+7). Play 1 unit on Navy (+225).

ALABAMA (-20) at Arkansas. Arkansas comes off a very embarrasing loss last week to ULM. Arkansas was ranked in the top 10 and probably had outside hopes of playing in a meaningful bowl game. Now all hope of that is gone so you have to wonder where this team will be mentally when facing arguably the best team in the country. Second, rumors have it that Arkansas’ starting QB will not start. A second string QB against this Alabama defense can only smell trouble. This is pretty much a no brainer. Alabama can simply name the score in this one. Play on Ala for 2 units.

ULM vs AUBURN (-15.5). Basically see above. ULM comes off their best win in school history. I am sure every player on the team lived the high life …

Ball State at CLEMSON (-27.5): I know this is a huge number and generally I stay away from big favorites, but the talent in this game is so lopsided I can’t help myself. I am not just talking about their rankings either. Clemson is bigger, much faster, and more talented on the offensive and defensive side of the ball. I don’t believe Clemson should have much of a hangover from beating Auburn, but it is possible. Clemson should have their sights set pretty high this year and it won’t bode them well to stumble here. I believe Clemson dominates start to finish and Ball State will be luck to score more than 10 points. I won’t lay these many points often, but I will here. 1 unit on Clemson.

Duke vs. Stanford OVER 55.5: We all know Stanford is not going to be as good as they were last year, but how much of a dropoff will they really have. In my opinion, significant, but that shouldn’t matter here against Duke. Stanford’s offense was terrible last week against a below average defense in San Jose State. Duke’s defensive, also below average simply cannot stop the run. FIU racked-up 165 rushing yards last week and scored 26 points. I look for Stanford to pound the run early to setup some easy screen passes and the occasional deep play-action score. Duke played the same starting schedule last year, FIU then Stanford, which resulted in a win and a loss; small revenge spot here for Duke. Duke’s offense should score some points here, I believe at least in the low 20s. Stanford’s offense will show some life here against another weak defense. Score Prediction 48-21. 1 unit on the over 55.5.

I won’t …