College Football Picks

Boise State let me down late as they could not stop TCU down the stretch, however if you took the points then you had an easy cover.

I made two bets before I left Vegas on bowl games and Central Michigan was one of them.  I was able to get the line at -6.5, but it is now at -7. There is definetly some home field advantage here as CMU is bringing tons of fans, while FAU is only bringing about 1500. CMU has played in the Motor City Bowl for the last 2 years and have played well in both. FAU has been poor on the road this year going 2-5 SU and 3-4 ATS. Another factor is that at least two starters on defense for FAU are either out or suspended for the game and one other back-up is out as well. That puts in even more stress on a weak defense that will have its hands full trying to slow down that high powered CMU offense. CMU dropped the last two games of the year, but I don’t think that is as big a deal as many think. CMU lost to a red hot Ball State team, but played very tough and the game wasn’t decided until the last few minutes. Their other loss came to Eastern Michigan, but many times after a tough loss and with a game that is virtually meaningless you will see a team have a big let down and lose. Therefore, both of those losses can easily be explained. Tonight will be different. This is Dan LeFevour’s last game and he is going to go out in style. He should easily light up this weak FAU defense. While CMU’s defense is nothing …

Sorry I haven’t posted in a while guys, I was in Vegas. Had a pretty successful trip as I hit a video poker machine with 4 Aces and a kicker which paid $2000. Anyways it is back to reality and we have a bunch of bowl games to analyze.

TCU v. Boise State (+3):

Without a doubt the public is all over TCU, with 57% of the money on the spread going on TCU. I just don’t understand why. TCU has the better defense, but I just don’t believe they are that different: TCU’s D only allows 166 passing yards and under 50 yards rushing. However BSU’s D allows 189 passing and 105 rushing, which is also rock solid. Both of TCU’s losses have come on the road against Oklahoma and Utah. The key for me here is that Oklahoma loss. BSU’s offense is very similar to Oklahoma and I believe BSU will exploit TCU’s weakness in the secondary. I think BSU’s can beat them deep and score at will. I am calling it now, BSU in a route. I have already played this game on the money line. So take the points if you feel the need, but I just see BSU playing an overall better game and with a chip on their shoulder after getting snubbed from a major bowl game.

The Play: Boise State moneyline (+130)…

Last weekend we had some really nice plays going 5-3-1. Importantly, 3 out of 4 of our second week bets won, with the other game going as a push. Even with a limited number of games this weekend there are still several games that fit the system.

Bet $38.50 on the following:

1. Alabama vs. Florida (-9) Fl 31 Ala 20 WIN

2. Boston College (-1) at Virgina Tech VT 30 BC 12 loss

Bet $27.50 on the following:

1. Middle Tennesse State (+5) vs. UL Lafayette UL 42 MTSt 28 loss

2. Louisville at Rutgers (-10) Louisville has really struggled on the road this year and Rutgers has turned what looked to be a bad year into another winning season. Rutgers defense is much better than Louisville. Louisville has allowed over 30 points on the road while Rutgers is holding teams to 16. Lay the points here with Rutgers.  RUTGERS 63 LOU 14 WIN

3. Buffalo at Ball State (-15) BUFF 42 BSU 24 loss

4. Navy at Army Under 44.5 NAVY 34 ARMY 0 WIN

5. Washington at California (-35)  CAL 48 WASH 7 WIN

6. USC at UCLA Under 47.5 USC 28 UCLA 7 WIN

7. Arkansas State at Troy (-11) TROY 35 AkSt. 9 WIN

8. Missouri at Oklahoma (-17) I know that Missouri can score and score in bunches on just about anyone, but OK will be ready for them. OK cannot leave any doubts if they want to play in the National Title game. Look for OK to throw the ball a lot and do everything possible to make this a blowout. OK 62 MIZZ 21WIN

9. Missouri at Oklahoma Over 79 TOTAL 83 WIN

10. Arizona State (+11) at Arizona AZ 31 ASU …

I’m not putting any money on college football this week, but these are the spreads that I would consider if I were.

NORTHWESTERN +2.5 over Illinois

Boston College -2.5 over WAKE FOREST

MARYLAND +1.5 over Florida State

VANDERBILT -3.5 over Tennessee

Michigan State +16 over PENN STATE – MSU is 9-2 (i.e., they shouldn’t be 16-point dogs), it’s cold, Penn State will have problems focusing after their huge loss to Iowa last week. I think Penn State wins this one, but I say by 3-13 points.

Tonight’s Prime Time Game: TEXAS TECH @ OKLAHOMA -7

I can’t wait for this one tonight. We’ll see at least 60 points, which the over/under reflects at 76. You have to love Texas Tech’s offense, but Oklahoma’s has been just as good. Oklahoma is clearly the more well-rounded team. There’s no way I can picture Texas Tech in that championship game. I think Oklahoma will cover with a win by at least 10. I wouldn’t bet on this game since it should just be a back and forth offensive battle. First team to get the other team to punt should win this one. It’s just an exciting game that I’m looking forward to watching tonight.…

Warning: There are very few games that fit the system this week and from my research over the past five years week 12 and on, underdogs begin to struggle. There are just a few games I am posting, but none of these plays are very strong. I will also be posting my own plays that I feel are very strong.

Underdog Plays:

1. Utah and San Diego State (+29): I know that SDS’s record is terrible, but they have a decent chance of covering this spread. Utah is coming off two very difficult games in which they have struggled to score and probably should have lost both games. This is also a spot where Utah could be easily looking ahead to their big game verse BYU in two weeks. That game will determine whether Utah gets that BCS bid. Looking at the stats it is clear SDS plays much better at home scoring 29 points per and almost 400 yards of total offense, which is somewhat better than Utah’s stats on the road. The primary weak spot for SDS is their defense. They have simply been terrible giving up 29 points per at home over 35 on the road. Utah will easily win this game, but they may not be at their best considering it is a good spot for a let down off their big win last week and their big game in two weeks. (Rating +1)

2. BYU at Air Force (+5.5): I am a little surprised by this line, I thought it would be closer to 8 or 9. This is obviously AF’s biggest game of the year and they have played pretty well so far this year. One of the keys to this game will be …

Notes: I will give an analysis of the games later tonight, but I wanted to get these posts out sooner rather than later.

1.Ohio State at Northwestern (+10.5): (Rating +1)

2. Southern Mississippi at Central Florida (+3): (Rating +1)

3. Arizona State at Washington (+14.5): (Rating +2)

4. New Mexico at UNLV (+4.5):(Rating +3)

5. Oregon State at UCLA (+8): (Rating +3)…

First off, if you are interested in this game and you have multiple online betting accounts you will want to check for the best line as I have seen this line anywhere from 8 to 10. As I said earlier, I have been watching Ball State closely for th past couple of years and making money off them. However, I think this is a great spot to play against BSU. Both of these teams have been great ATS this year (NIU 5-2 BSU 6-1). On the road, NIU is a perfect 4-0 ATS. Overall NIU’s defense on the road has been better than BSU’s defense at home. Both teams defenses have been excellent as of late holding appoints to less than 12 points per game. This is also likely the best defense BSU has played all year long and I am sure NIU has little extra to play for as BSU is ranked in the top 25 and this is an important conference match-up. NIU definetly has a chance to win this game and remember over this year how many upsets we have seen during mid-week games. Take the points with NIU.  (Rating +3)…