College Football Picks

I have put together 10 games that appear to me be strong solid plays. I will list the picks in order of strength with 1 being the strongest play and 10 being the weakest play, but remember I like all these picks. There is only a quick description of the games. I will be posting home dog plays later this week with more detailed analysis. So here we go:

1. Boston College (+3) at UNC: BC is playing great and UNC is coming off a tough loss on the road verse Virginia. Looking at the stats BC dominates in average total yards, time of possession, causing turnovers, and BC’s defense allows over 100 yards less per contest then UNC’s defense. Take the points.

2. Auburn (+3.5) at WVU (notice this game is on Thursday): This game should be very tight. Auburn dominates time of possession which will be important in keeping White off the field. They are causing at least 2 turnovers a game and hold their opposition to around 100 yards rushing per game. Take the points.

3. Middle Tennessee St at Mississippi State (-11): This simply comes down to the poor performance of MTS on the road 0-4 SU and 1-3 ATS. They have allowed an average of 31 points on the road and have only managed to score an average of 18. On the other hand, MSU has played well at home allowing less than 10 points and causing at least 2 turnovers and going 2-1 SU and 2-0 ATS. MSU should control the ball and simply dominate this game.

4. Eastern Michigan at Ball State (-24): I know this is a big line, but Ball State has been on fire. I have been following …

The underdogs came back this weekend with 3 strong performances. This puts us slightly over 60% winning percentage. Hopefully we can continue this run throughout the rest of the season. My 12 team parlay hit 8 teams, did anyone make any money on a parlay based on those picks, let me know?

Underdog Plays: 3-1

Units of Profit this week: +6 units

Year underdog totals: 25-16

Units of Profit since posting on thepassrush: +1

Remember to check out NHL picks at THE ONETIMER.…

While parlays offer nice payoffs, I always seem to lose one game to keep from that big payday. Well, I have had an ubelievably lucky week so I thought I would throw a crazy 12 team parlay together, no teaser, straight parlay. For $5 this parlay pays an amazing $3000. I have a shot to win it if only based on the fact that I have the ticket and the games haven’t started yet. Wish me luck. Here are the picks:

1. UCONN at Rutgers Scarlet Knights +1: FINAL SCORE RUTGERS 12 UCONN 10

2. Memphis at East Carolina Pirates -8: FINAL SCORE ECU 30 UM 10

3. Virginia Tech at Boston College Eagles -3 BC 28 VT 23

4. Kansas Jayhawks +20 at Oklahoma OK 45 KU 31

5. Mississippi at Alabama Crimson Tide -12 ALA 24 MIS 20

6. USC at Washington State Cougars +42½ USC 69 WSU 0

7. Pittsburgh at Navy Midshipmen +2½ PITT 42 NAVY 21

8. Ohio State at Michigan State Spartans +3 OSU 45 MSU 7

9. North Carolina at Virginia Cavaliers +4½ VIR. 16 UNC 13

10. Toledo at No Illinois Huskies -9½ NIU 38 UT 7

11. Baylor at Oklahoma State Cowboys -17 OSU 34 BU 6 

12. LSU Fighting Tigers -2½ at South Carolina LSU 24 SC 17

Let me know what you think. I think I could easily win 8 or 9, but lets hope for 12.

TOTAL: 8 OUT OF 12, THAT IS A LOSS, BUT PRETTY GOOD ATS. …

MISSOURI TIGERS @ TEXAS LONGHORNS -5.5

The most intriguing game on the college football schedule for week 8 has to be he No. 12 Missouri Tigers vs. No. 1 Texas Longhorns. Both teams are averaging more than 45 PPG. That’s ridiculous! We both know that both teams are offensive juggernauts. Missouri is averaging over 550 yards of offense a game and Texas is averaging 462 yards. Texas has the slightly better defense. Texas has given up an average of only 15.3 PPG while Missouri’s average is 21.3 PPG. What’s more impressive with Texas is their play against the run. On the ground, Texas is only allowing 1.9 yards per attempt.

So far Texas has been playing brilliant football at home where they’ve only given up an average of 10 points and 270 yards a game while scoring an average of 52 PPG, compared to Missouri’s 17 points and 352 yards allowed on the road to Nebraska. But of course Texas should roll over teams like Arkansas, Rice, and Florida Atlantic at home.

Last week the Tigers lost to the Oklahoma State Cowboys at home 28-23 and they were a 2 touchdown favorite. Texas is coming off a big emotional win in the Red River Rivalry where they topped the Oklahoma Sooners 45-35 (as a 7-point underdog) in what was one of the best college games of the year. The key to Missouri’s loss last week was Chase Daniel’s 3 INTs. He threw for 390 yards, but you just can’t turnover the ball like that. In his previous 5 games, Chase threw 15 TDs and only 1 INT. Chase is also completing over 75% of his passes. Chase is coming into this game with 2,055 yards, 16 TDs, 4 INTs. Colt …

While last week was tough on the dogs, they have still won at almost 60% this year. Therefore, I can’t give up on the dogs after one bad week.

1. California at Arizona (+2): Overall this should be one of the best football games of the weekend. Both teams are averaging almost 410 yards of total offense and both teams’ defenses allow less than 300 yards with the slight edge going to the Wildcats. The Wildcats are 3-0 at home, while Cals only loss came on the road against a decent Maryland team. However, there is one stat that makes this game a play, the surface. Arizona’s field surface is grass, while California’s surface is Artifical Turf. Cal is a dismal 3-13 ATS on grass. Cal is also only 2-7 ATS over their last 9, while in that same stretch Arizona is a remarkable 7-2. (Rating +4).

***Side Bet: Above I pointed out that these teams both have very tough defenses, but they also have decent offensive attacks as well. Therefore the Over/Under seems like a potential play because it seems to be set more towards the offenses at 54.5. I will take the under as I believe the Ds will play an important role. (Rating +3)

2. Texas Tech at Texas A&M (+21): If you followed my picks last week I was spot on by taking the points Nebraska was getting on the road at TT. Nebraska lost by 3 in overtime. TT has dominated the spread in this series covering 21 of 28 times. However, TT has only been favored 6 times in the past 29 years, and they have never had to lay this many points, especially on the road. This is a huge in-state rivarly game …

Home-dogs came through again last week running my season total to 21-8, 72%. This week offers up several games, the most of any week so far.

1. Iowa at Indiana (+5): This is a game between two teams that simply cannot get going in the right direction. Iowa has dropped three consecutive games, 2 of the 3 losses coming on the road verse Pittsburgh and Michigan State. However, IU has lost the last three games as well, 2 of the 3 losses coming at home against Ball State and Michigan State. IU has won the last two meetings between these teams. This is a do or die game for both teams. Indiana’s offense has been able to average over 400 yards in total offense per game, while Iowa is just under the 400 yard mark. Indiana does have a balanced attack averaging just about 200 yards rushing and passing. I feel this game will come down to TOs and field position. IU made some bad mistakes early in the game verse MSU that eventually cost them the game. If IU can control the ball and avoid sloppy TOs then this game should be close. (Rating +2) IU had no answers for Iowa offense or defense, clearly a one sided battle. Iowa 45 IU 9

2. TCU at Colorado State (+15): This is clearly a trap game for TCU, if you look ahead on TCU’s schedule you see they only have five days between the game verse CSU and the game verse conference rival BYU, which will likely be a game that determines the conference champion. CSU has been really strong at home, 3-0 SU and 2-0 ATS. CSU is averaging 30 points per game at home compared to their season …

I’m going to throw out some quick week 7 college picks against the spread (HOME TEAMS IN CAPS). I like the Vanderbilt and BYU picks the most and I would give some consideration to Kentucky.

Vanderbilt -3 OVER MISSISSIPPI STATE

I like this game a lot. Vanderbilt is rolling with their 5-0 record and they’re 5-0 ATS to boot. Mississippi State is a dismal 1-4 (2-2 ATS) with their sole win over Southeastern Louisiana. They were manhandeled by Georgia Tech, but in their defense, they hung with LSU losing that one by a score of 34-24. Vandy has impressive wins over Auburn, Ole Miss, and South Carolina. Vanderbilt is also manufacturing turnovers. Their 26.6 PPG is better than Miss St.’s 16.2 and Vandy is only allowing 16.2 PPG compared to Miss. St.’s 21.4.

KENTUCKY -1 OVER South Carolina

This should be a good one. Kentrucky is 4-1 and S. Carolina is 4-2. Kentucky is scoring more points than the Game Cocks, are allowing less points, and have the advantage being at home. Kentucky is 3-0 at home this year (albiet, against teams they should crush) compared to S. Carolina’s 1-1 road record. S. Carolina dropped one last week to Ole Miss, while Kentucky lost by only 3 on the road to an outstanding Alabama team.

Iowa -5 OVER INDIANA

Indiana doesn’t play much defense and Iowa does. Iowa’s dropped 3 straight, but they’ve faced very good teams (Michigan State, Northwester, Pittsburgh). Indiana lost by 13 to Michigan State at home, 42-29. Iowa lost to MSU on the road 16-13. They held a team with a Heisman hopeful RB to 16 points: that’s very good. I like Iowa’s defense to dominate this game and Indiana’s defense should give up points.

LSU …