College Football Picks

Troy at Florida Atlantic (+3.5): Week 7 opens up with an early home-dog play in the Sun-Belt conference. Troy is a respectable 2-2, while FAU is 1-4. A quick glance at this game would appear to give Troy a considerable edge. However, FAU has played an impressive schedule including games at Texas, at Michigan State, at Minnesota, and a tough last second loss last week at Middle Tenn St. The only win came at home verse UAB 49-34. FAU is only averaging 15 points a game, while Troy is averaging almost 33. FAU has clearly struggled on the road, but most teams will struggle against tough defenses in the Big 12 and Big 10. Troy is coming off two consecutive road games at Ohio State and at Oklahoma State. Troy now must go on the road for a third consecutive time. That is a lot of traveling for any team. With the exception of a poor performance against Minnesota, FAU’s D has been impressive holding Michigan State to only 17 points and Midd Tenn St to 14. FAU is 2-2 ats this year. FAU should benefit by being home for the first time in a while and should be excited to play in a televised game in front of their home crowd. Look for FAU to take advantage of a tired Trojans team that may come out flat. If FAU can jump on them early they should be able to pull off a solid conference win. (Rating +2). While Troy was clearly the better team, FAU made several poor decisions on offense and special teams. Home-dogs cannot win or cover when they make silly TOs and that was simply the downfall of FAU tonight. When they were able to mount …

Since this is the first time posting anything here at thepassrush.com, I thought I would say a little about myself and my betting strategy. I am a soon to be Law school graduate with an interest in Family Law and Corporate Law. My true love is baseball, but seem to have a good handle on college football and college basketball picks. The one thing I know about gambling is that over the years Las Vegas has only lost one bet, home-dogs against the spread, with a win rate of 54%, you need about 52% to break even. Therefore, I always begin the week by looking at home-dogs and working from there. Each week I will give you some home-dogs that I like. So far this year my home dog plays are 17-7 ATS. I will value rate the games (1-5, 5 being the strongest game).

Week 6 Home-Dogs:

1.) BYU @ Utah State (+29): While on paper this game looks like another easy blowout win by BYU, I continue to value home field-advantage. BYU has looked very good this year except for the game at Washington, a 28-27 win. Washington has not proved anything so far this year to back up the strong performance they had against BYU, so either they aren’t playing up to their ability or BYU just didn’t come into the game well enough prepared. Utah State is 2-2 ATS so far this year. While I don’t think they have a chance of winning, they have shown the ability to score points, scoring an average of 23 points per game, so even if they give up 50, they still may be within the number. (Rating +2) It wasn’t pretty and basically we just got lucky, but in …

It’s been a while since I’ve done college football picks. I usually don’t bet on college football except for the Bowl Games. I haven’t looked into these matchups, but I just wanted to put up a few picks just based on my hunches and see how I end up doing. Here are my week 5 college football picks against the spread.

Wisconsin -6.5 OVER MICHIGAN

Minnesota +19.5 OVER OHIO ST.

North Carolina +7.5 OVER MIAMI

Piitsburgh -15 OVER SYRACUSE

South Florida -9.5 OVER N.C. STATE

PENN STATE -16 OVER Illinois

Remember, my week 4 NFL picks are below, or you can follow the link.

Recap: These picks went 3-3. Wisconsin blew the game to Michigan in the 4th quarter, Penn State didn’t cover by 2 points, Pittsburgh didn’t cover by 5, Minnesota was able to cover, North Carolina pulled off the upset, and South Florida dominated N.C. State.…

What a suiting article for the 100th article here on THE PASS RUSH.  Here are my picks and predictions for the BCS Bowl games.  Here are my picks for the non-BCS Bow games.

ROSE BOWL: Illinois Fighting Illini vs. USC Trojans -13.5

I don’t know why the Illini are getting a lack of respect in this game.  I thought the spread should be USC -9.  I think Illinois is very capable of covering this one.  They were the team to top Ohio State and have impressive wins against Penn State and Wisconsin.  Their first game of the season was against should-be BSC Bowl contender Missouri, and they only lost that one by 4.  These teams match up pretty evenly.  Illinois has an average PF of 28.8, USC’s is 31.2.  Illinois has an average PA of 19.5, USC’s is 15.9.  Illinois’ 7-4 record against the spread is better than USC’s 6-6 record against the spread.  9/13 of the experts at covers.com are taking USC to cover, but I think the Trojans will win, but Illinois will cover.  Also keep in mind that USC has a huge advantage being in Pasadena.

Prediction – USC defeats Illinois – 34-24

USC Moneyline – Confidence 4/5
Illinois +13.5 Spread – Confidence 2/5

SUGAR BOWL: Hawaii Warriors vs. Georgia Bulldogs -7.5

When I first saw the Bowl games announced I was getting excited about this one because I expect the Bulldogs to stomp on the Warriors.  I thought the spread should be at least 10 points.  We all know about Hawaii’s offense, but they’ve been playing mickey-mouse defenses; they haven’t seen a defense like Georgia’s.  I don’t think Hawaii will know what hit them when they have to square off on January 1st.  Hawaii’s defense …

Here are a few picks for the Non-BCS Bowl games. My picks for the BCS Bowl games can be read here.

CHIK-FIL-A PEACH BOWL: Auburn Tigers vs. Clemson Tigers -2.5

I like Auburn in this one. They’ve beaten the likes of Florida, Arkansas, and Alabama. They also only lost to LSU by 6. Clemson has some big wins over crappy teams, but they haven’t beaten anyone impressive. The tough games they’ve had (Boston College, Virginia Tech, Georgia Tech) they’ve lost. Clemson’s only somewhat impressive wins are by 34 over Wake Forest and South Carolina.

Prediction – Auburn defeats Clemson – 24-17

Auburn Moneyline – Confidence 3/5
Auburn +2.5 Spread – Confidence 3/5

CAPITAL ONE BOWL: Michigan Wolverines vs. Florida Gators -10.5

I don’t think Michigan will have an answer for the Gators’ explosive offense. The Gators’ 43 PPG will be too much for Michigan. I think the Gators should win by 14.

Prediction – Florida defeats Michigan 45-24

Florida Moneyline – Confidence 5/5
Florida -10.5 Spread – Confidence 4/5

ALAMO BOWL: Texas A&M vs. Penn State -5

I like Penn State here. Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas Tech, Miami, and Missouri have all beaten the snot out of Texas A&M. Both offenses are pretty even, but Penn State has a huge edge on Texas A&M with their defense: Penn State allows 17.5 PPG, Texas A&M allows 26.0 PPG.

Prediction – Penn State defeats Texas A&M – 31-20

Penn State Moneyline – Confidence 4/5
Penn State -5 Spread – Confidence 4/5…

There are a few week 13 college football games that I like tomorrow. If you’re looking for the Week 12 NFL previews, you can get to those by following the link. Here are the NCAA football games that I like.

Georgia Bulldogs -3.5 @ Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets

The 9-2 Bulldogs have been great. They’ve won 3-straight games over ranked opponents by an average of 16 points. They beat Florida by 12, Auburn by 25, and Kentucky by 11. Their only losses are to Tennessee and South Carolina, two very solid teams. Georgia Tech is 7-4 (4-4 in the ACC) and don’t impress me too much. They were beat up by Virginia Tech at home 27-3 and are coming off a mere 2-point win over a weak North Carolina team.

Prediction – Georgia defeats Goergia Tech – 24-10

Georgia Moneyline – Confidence 4/5
Georgia -3.5 Spread – Confidence 4/5 (Bought line at -3)

South Florida Bulls -9 @ Pittsburgh Panthers

South Florida outmatches Pittsburgh in all offensive and defensive categories. After losing 3 straight (to UConn, Rutgers, and Cincinnati), the Bulls have gotten things back on track with big wins over Syracuse (41-10) and Louisville (55-17). Pittsburgh does nothing to impress me. They’ve lost to Connecticut by 20, Louisville by 7, and Virginia by 30, but they’ve kept it close at Rutgers, only losing by 4. They should struggle offensively against this Bulls defense and hopefully the Bulls offense can keep things going.

Prediction – South Florida defeats Pittsburgh – 27-13

South Florida Moneyline – Confidence 4/5
South Florida -9 Spread – Confidence 3/5…

It’s usually a dumb idea to bet on a game just because it happens to be televised.  Usually ESPN’s Thursday Night College Football game is a game I always want to bet on to start off the betting weekend.  It’s so tempting to bet on, but unless you have a great feeling about the game, it’s in your best interest to not bet on the game and live to fight another day.

Last night’s game between No. 2 Boston College and No. 8 Virginia Tech is a prime example.  The line was set at Virginia Tech -3.  I was thinking it would be a low scoring game, that Virginia Tech’s defense would give Boston College trouble, and that taking VT at -3 would be a safe play because they were the home team and playing on Thursday night — it’s usually a great winning combination in college football.  If I would have taken Virginia Tech, I would have ended up in a very poor mood.  Instead, I used a little discipline and intuition and decided to pass on the game.  Great call.

If you took Boston College, you were sweating the game out until the final minutes of the game.  If you took Virginia Tech, you thought you were sitting pretty good for the first 58 minutes of the game.  Tech had a 10-point lead through the majority of the game, if BC happens to score, the worst that could happen is a push right?  Wrong!  BC recovers an improbable onside kick, marches down the field, and scores the game-winning touchdown with 11 seconds left to play.

This is a prime example of the rule that if you think the game will be close and could go either way, don’t …