College Football Picks

NC State Offensive Attack

What a compelling game on a Thursday night! What an ACC Matchup with Florida State traveling to North Carolina State. Florida State and NC State are two of the top teams in the ACC and have very powerful offenses. Both teams average over 420 yards a game. Florida state with 221 in the air and 211 on the ground while NC State averages 323 in the air and 136 on the ground. Florida state also averages 34.9 ppg while NC State throws up 36 a game.

The over is 5-0 in both team’s last five games when NC State was a home underdog, 4-0 when NC State is an underdog from 3.5-10 points, 13-3 in NC State’s last 16 conference games, 6-2 when FSU is favored by 3.5-10 points.

After taking a look at the line movement in this game I really like the over as well. The line opened up at 56.5 and is currently at 59. Jump on this line now.

Secondly, I like the NC State Wolfpack in this Thursday night matchup. The Wolfpack were down 21-0 after the 1st quarter, but tightened up their chin straps after the first and made a comeback, which I believe boosted their confidence and will make them want to come out and smash their ACC foe in FSU. There are a few more reasons I am liking the Wolf Pack tonight:

1.) NC State is 8-0-1 ATS in their last 9 meetings

2.) NC State is 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 meetings at NC State

3.) The underdog, NC State in this case, is 8-0-1 ATS in the last 9 games between both teams.

If the Wolf Pack can step up on their rush …

South Florida Bulls @ Cincinnati Bearcats (-7.5)

Friday night features a pair of 3-3 Big East teams. South Florida is coming off a loss in West Virginia 20-6. The Bulls haven’t scored more than 14 points in any of their three losses. The Bulls are ranked 59th in rushing yards per game

Collaros stays hot Friday night.

and ranked 107th in passing yards per game. The only thing that’s holding this team together right now is their defense which is ranked 18th in points allowed, which is decent.

Cincinnati is coming off an impressive win against Louisville. The Bearcats are currently on a two game winning streak, improving from 1-3 to 3-3. Zach Collaros totaled five touchdown passes against Louisville while throwing for 275 yards.

Cincinnati has covered the spread in each of these two team’s last six meetings. I don’t see the Bulls again putting up many points, while Collaros remains hot. South Florida is 1-4 ATS in their last five games, as well as 1-4 ATS in their last five road games. Cincinnati is 5-0 ATS in their last five October games, as well as 9-4 ATS in their last 13 conference games.

Let’s get back on a winning streak and win some money.

Prediction: Bearcats 24 – Bulls 10

Pick Against the Spread: Cincinnati -7.5…

COLLEGE FOOTBALL PICKS:
I just didn’t feel any games warranted a 1 unit play last week.  There were a few games I liked, but nothing worth potentially losing money over.  Back at it this week with 4 picks.

UCLA/OREGON UNDER 61 for 1 unit. Both teams off a bye week having plenty of time to analyze film and review play schemes to ready their defenses for this contest.  Oregon’s D has been unreal at home only giving up an average of 10pts per contest.  UCLA, while not as talented, has been average for most college squads giving up 26pts per contest.  UCLA’s offense has been overall pretty inefficient and I don’t expect that offense to improve here tonight on the road verse a well rested and prepared Oregon D.  In my opinion the only way you can bet this game over is if you think Oregon can score over 61 by themselves because Oregon does have the talent to post a shutout at home.  UCLA’s D will be well tested, but should be pretty prepared for this contest.  Final score Oregon 44 UCLA 10.

Alabama (-16.5) at Tennessee for 2 units. They win by 40. Enough said.

UCONN at LOUISVILLE (-1.5) for 1 unit. I got this game at +2. It opened at +1.5 and then moved to +2 so I waited to post this, but when I saw it start to fall I jumped on it, but by the time of posting it was at -1.5.  I think they win outright easily.  More write up to follow if I have time.

Indiana (+13.5) at Illinois for 1 unit. Illinois may overlook this IU squad, but you better not sleep on this IU offense that will put up some points …

SPARTY ON!

After scanning through the week 7 college football lines, here are some lines that stand out to me. As a reminder, this is based off a quick scan. Therefore, do your own due diligence before taking any games. Good luck.

• MICHIGAN STATE (-7) over Illinois — Michigan State is off to a 6-0 start with impressive wins over Notre Dame and @Michigan. Michigan State’s offense has been rolling and Illinois D has some problems. At home, I’m confident in giving up the 7 as I see Michigan State topping Illinois by 13.
• North Carolina State (-7.5) over EAST CAROLINA – NC State has been rather impressive this season getting off to a 5-1 start. Eastern Carolina games have been crazy this year. They have no defense, but the offense can keep up. Seeing how North Carolina and Virginia Tech blew them out at ECU, I’m confident NC State can cruise past ECU for a win in the ballpark of 38-24.
• NEBRASKA (-9.5) over Texas — So far nobody has been able to stop Nebraska’s running attack and Texas has been extremely disappointing falling out of the top 25. Although Texas has a respectable D, their offense has been sleeping, currently ranked 70th in the nation.  Last year’s matchup ended 13-12. I see Nebraska topping Texas 27-13 in this one. May be too many points against a good D, so teasing this game with another like Michigan State or North Carolina State may be a good option. I would give up concert tickets to see this one.
• Utah (-21) over WYOMING — Utah’s offense has been explosive and Wyoming gives up a ton of points and has averaged just 12.5 points per contest. Look for Utah to roll by

South Florida Bulls @ West Virginia Mountaineers (-10.5)

This is a big Thursday night game that will be aired on ESPN. South Florida is coming off an ugly 13-9 loss against Syracuse last week. West Virginia covered their 26.5 point spread by beating UNLV last week 49-10. They are now

South Florida takes advantage of the generous points given to them tonight.

ranked in the AP top 25 at #25.

Let’s talk about the head-to-head match-up between these two teams though. South Florida has won three of the last four games SU and are 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings with the Mountaineers. Last year, South Florida topped them 30-19. Clearly, West Virginia is the better team this year, but in my opinion are getting way too many points tonight. I see West Virginia winning this game, but definitely in a close one. South Florida covers the spread.

The Bulls last victory against their last five games versus ranked opponents was against West Virginia last year. Coach Holtz knows that this year is different with West Virginia improving dramatically throwing the ball when they’re usually known for their running game.

Holtz as a coach is 20-4-1 ATS as a dog when facing a team with at least one loss on the season. Coach of the Mountaineers,, Stewart,  is 8-15 ATS when laying points. Vegas made a mistake and gave the Bulls too many points.

Prediction: Mountaineers 24 – Bulls 20

Pick Against the Spread: South Florida +10.5…

Last week we went 4-2 (including MNF) for 2.7 units of profit. Looking to keep those strong plays rolling I am releasing two strong 2 unit plays this week and a 1 unit play. Read on for the top plays.

EAST CAROLINA VS SO. MISS (-8) for 2 UNITS:

After making my lines for this game, I conservatively had So Miss as a 14pt home chalk. Therefore I see a good deal of value in So Miss this week. After a tough loss at home to South Carolina to start the year this team has been rock solid going 3-0 SU and ATS at home.  They continue to dominate weak opponents.  So Miss should be able to take advantage of ECU’s terrible defense, giving up almost 200yds rushing and over 270yds passing.  So Miss’s balanced attack, over 180yds rushing and 220yds passing, will easily take advantage of many mismatches on both sides of the ball. Look for So Miss to roll 37-17.

Oregon State vs ARIZONA (-8) for 2 UNITS: Again my numbers totally disagree with the Vegas Line as I have Arizona a 17pt favorite. Oregon State has played a brutal schedule facing TCU, Boise State, and AzSt already this year and as you saw last week at the end of the game they are running out of gas, almost losing in the last few minutes to AzSt. I see Az exploiting OregonSt primarily through the air as Az has been throwing for 300yds per contest. Oregon State comes in flat and leaves with a good thumping 35-17.

MICHIGAN ST (+4.5) AT Michigan for 1 UNIT: If this game was being played on a neutral field I would have this game as MSU -1, but with it being in …

Nevada Wolf Pack @ UNLV Rebels

I really like Nevada tonight. They’ve opened up to a perfect start not only their first four games but also going a perfect 3-0 ATS thus far. Their offense has been dominating averaging 44.8 points per game. Quarterback Colin Kaepernick has had a great start to the season and takes really good care of the ball, which is giving the Wolf Pack 242 pass yards per game.

Look for Nevada to keep the ball on the ground tonight.

Nevada has had a couple impressive back to back wins cruising to an easy victory against Cal in week three, then handling BYU 27-13 in week four. Last year Nevada smashed the Rebels 63-28 as only 6.5 point favorites.

UNLV, on the other hand, has only one win under their belt. They snapped their three game losing streak to open the year, beating New Mexico 45-10 last week. Their 45 points last week actually was more than the amount of points they scored in the first three weeks combined.

Look for Nevada to pound the ball on the ground this game. UNLV is allowing 161 running yards per game. Last year, that’s exactly how Nevada took it to them. The Wolf Pack accumulated 559 yards on the ground last season. If Nevada can keep racking up yards, look for an easy cover.

Trends:

• Nevada is 7-0 ATS in their last seven after a win.
• Nevada is 4-0 ATS in their last four road games.
• Nevada is 4-1 in their last five non-conference games.
• Nevada is 7-2 in their last nine games overall.
• Nevada is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings between these two teams.
• UNLV is 0-6 in their last six against a team with