College Football Picks

Last week was tough as I started the day 3-0 and then finished 0-3 with my top play dropping the ball, literally 4x in the 4th quarter. Now down 3.8 units on the year, but it is still early in the year. This weekend I am coming with Top 2 Plays of the Year.

PLAY OF THE YEAR #1: UTEP (-14.5) vs. New Mexico for 2 UNITS: WINNER

Last week everyone I knew was all over UTEP vs Memphis and they simply did not bring it barely winning. However, New Mexico  is a totally different team then Memphis and I expect a 4 touchdown blowout on Saturday by UTEP. Looking at the numbers, UTEP has a clear advantage both offensively and defensively. UTEP rushes for 175yds per contest, while NM gives up over 220yds per contest. Once UTEP has established the run, which they clearly will, the passing game will open wide up.  UTEP is passing for almost 250yds per contest while NM has not been able to even slow down any passing game they have faced giving up just under 300yds per.  Defensively, while not great, UTEP has been solid against the run and pass, but more importantly NM has not been able to produce any form of offense only scoring an avg of 10pts per contest. UTEP comes ready to play this weekend and wins going away 42-17.

ARIZONA ST (+3.5) vs Oregon State for 2 units. WINNER

AzSt has been very impressive so far this year losing narrowly to both Wisconsin and Oregon. Even though they were predicted to finish 9th in the PAC10 they are clearly better than that this year. OSt has faced a brutal schedule so far this year already playing tough affairs verse …

You're Welcome!

I’m not going to pretend I did much homework on these games. I’m just scanning through the lines and point out what I find attractive. Here are some of my week 5 college football picks that I will want to look into later.

Week 5 Games I Like:

• MARYLAND (-8.5) over Duke — I love betting against Duke with their terrible defense.
• Temple (-6) over ARMY — Wins over respectable Connecticut and Central Michigan. They had Penn State on their heels in the first half of that game until Penn State fought back in the 2nd half. They’re a solid team. Brandon is leaning Army here at home, so you may want to go the other way.
• Georgia Tech (-10) over WAKE FOREST — I played FSU (-18) over WF last week and won comfortably. Wake Forest’s D is a joke, they give up 40 points per game, which is why I love betting against them.

Game to Watch This Weekend:

• Oklahoma (-3.5) vs. Texas — The Red-River Rivaly! Texas is the team that I enjoy following, but they’ve been disappointing this year. Their offense is slacking.  Oklahoma’s D has struggled though so who knows what happens in this one. I would take Oklahoma, but I’m pulling for Texas.
• Miami (-3) @ Clemson — Nice ACC battle.
• Arizona State @ Oregon State (-3.5) — Watch two great Pac 10 offenses battle it out.
• Notre Dame (-3) @ Boston College — Classic Catholic School Battle! ND is due for a win right? BC has a great run D though.
• Stanford @ Oregon (-4.5) — Do you like offense? Tune in.

Good luck!…

Texas A&M Aggies @ Oklahoma State Cowboys

We have a Big 12 match-up Thursday night with two undefeated teams. Both teams were on a bye week last week and it will be their first conference game. The past two meeting have been very high scoring, and Oklahoma State has come out on top in both winning 56-28 (as a 26 point favorite) and then winning last season 36-31 (as a 5 point favorite, pushing).

The Oklahoma State offense is too much for the Aggies' defense.

Both teams have very efficient offenses, as Oklahoma State actually ranks 2nd in the nation in passing yards this season. Oklahoma state crushed Tulsa in their last game 65-28, accumulating 722 total yards on offense, over half of those throwing the ball. Texas A&M snuck by Florida International 27-20 being a 29 point favorite, obviously not covering that spread due to the fact that they turned the ball over five times that game. Speaking of spreads, both teams are currently 2-1 ATS this season.

Texas A&M ranks 10th in the nation on defense, and will definitely have their hands full in this one. They have a great rush D, but are ranked 50th in the nation in pass D. QB Brandon Weeden for OK State is on absolute fire throwing 6 TDs with 0 INTs against Tulsa in their last contest. I hope OK State sees those stats and throws the ball all night. I don’t see them giving the ball to Kendall Hunter too much.

Texas A&M’s quarterback Jerrod Johnson is coming off a game where he threw the ball to the other team four times! Talk about having no confidence entering Thursday. OK State did let Tulsa get their passing yards, so maybe …

Kentucky Wildcats @ Florida Gators

Yes, Joey G is back for yet another over/under prediction. Now knock on wood, but I have not been incorrect with any of my over/under predictions thus far since joining the pass rush. I see an easy over tonight with Kentucky and Florida.

Florida hosts Kentucky tonight at 7pm.

Kentucky has stayed over 200 yards in both their passing and rushing game in each of their first three games. They have yet to turn the ball over this season. Florida, on the other hand, has been absolutely lost on offense. They looked as if they were going to lose to Miami (OH) in their opening game of the season! The only thing that they have going for them right now is their defense. They are making their opponents turn the ball over four times a game. Making Miami turn the ball over four times in their opener is what handed them that victory.

Kentucky has not been challenged too much on offense yet this year but they are putting up some stats that I am sure they are happy with. If Florida can keep up their “high turnover” mentality this season, let’s just hope it happens on the opponent’s side of the field. I see this one going over, and pretty easily.

Key Trends:

• Kentucky over is 4-0 in their last four coming off of a win.
• Kentucky over is 10-1 in their last 11 coming off a game where they covered the spread.
• Kentucky over is 5-2 in last seven conference games.
• Florida over is 4-1 in last five games.
• Florida over is 4-1 in last five as a favorite.
• Florida over is 4-1 in last five coming off of a win.

Play on …

In tonight’s nationally televised showdown, I am making a small play on the Pittsburgh Panthers at (+4). There are a lot of trends that most of you are probably going to go by, but i don’t like too many of them. I like the Panthers tonight at home in their first HOME test of the season. Pitt played tough on the road at Utah but came up just shy of a victory. Pitt’s running game has not been where they want it to be so far this season. I’m looking for a big game tonight out of the nation’s leading rusher from ’09, Dion Lewis. Lewis has been held to only 102 yards on 35 carries thus far, this season. Dion Lewis will be the X-factor in tonight’s game if they want to come away with a win. The Panthers will come out with fire and intensity at home and look to make a statement on national television.

Here are some trends that should give you a little more incentive:

Pitt is 7-3 in their last 10 home games ATS

Miami is 3-13 in their last 16 ATS off of a bye week

Pitt is a HOME DOG (Vegas Martin)

Like I said, don’t get too caught up in these trends. Read the article and take Pitt for a small winner tonight.

Final: Pittsburgh 27-21 over Miami…

Miami Hurricanes @ Pittsburgh Panthers

We’re in for a treat Thursday night when the Panthers host the Hurricanes. These two teams haven’t met since 2003 when Miami topped them 28-14. Miami is coming off a bye week and got that extra week to recover after that 36-24

Pitt looks to celebrate a victory tomorrow under the lights.

loss to Ohio State. And if you think about it, the Miami/Ohio State game should have been a lot lower scoring, but Miami had four crucial turnovers that led to some easy Ohio State scores. Miami’s defense has had that extra week of rest and has their work cut out for them with Pitt as they average 31 points a game.

Ok now let’s talk about some of the major reasons why I like the under besides the stats. The line opened up at a total of 55. If any of you have been following the line movement you’ll notice it’s down to 50. Now for all you mathematicians out there that’s a difference of five points. FIVE! Jump on the under. If there’s one play that I think will hit for sure this week it’s the under in this game. You might hear people “oh they put up 24 against that stifling Ohio State defense” and “oh Pitt is average 31 points per game how can you take the under!”. Well don’t be fooled.

Key Trends:

• The under is 7-0 in Miami’s last seven against Big East opponents.
• The under is 10-4 in Miami’s last 14 Thursday night games.
• The under is 10-4 in Pitt’s last 14 Thursday night games.
• The under is 5-1 in Pitt’s last six following a win in the previous week.

Play on under (50) Confidence (4/5) (Winner)…

Here are some week 4 college picks which caught my eye.

I already posted my two cents to Brandon’s week 4 college picks and we covered a lot of ground this week. As I mentioned there, Brandon and I really like Nevada (-4) and South Carolina (+3). I’m just going to scan through the rest of the spreads and see if anything excites me. Like I mention at the end, this is based off a quick scan so make sure you do your own due diligence before taking any of these picks.

We start of Thursday Night with Miami Hurricanes (-3.5) @ Pittsburgh Panthers. My first impression was Hurricanes, but you know the story — don’t bet against a home dogs in a primetime games (e.g., 49ers cover against Saints). However, college football is different. We played against 3 home dogs last week and we brought home the bacon in all three — Alabama (-23.5) over Duke, Boise State (-24) over Wyoming, and Nebraska (-3.5) over Washington. This is a pretty even matchup if you ask me although I give the edge to Miami. They have the better defense. I think this one ends up a 24-21 or 24-17 game with two respectable defenses. The  under 50.5 looks good.  The under 57.5 looks like an absolute lock if you want to tease that up to take the under and then take Miami at +3.5 or Pitt +10.5 depending on your stance. That’s your call.

I think you can take a shot on TCU (-18) over SMU Friday Night as a small play. TCU is 8-3 ATS in their last 11 and 6-2 ATS on Friday nights. This one is at SMU, but no biggie. SMU’s offense hasn’t been bad, …