Boise State Broncos

I'm flip-flopping, Boise is just too damn good.

Week 1 College Football Recap

Like I mentioned throughout all this week, there weren’t any picks that I loved this week. I only played a handful of games very light. I got all jacked up when I went 2-0 on Thursday night thanks to Brandon’s call of South Carolina -14 and my play of Pitt +3.5. I then gave some of that back when Washington failed to cover by 3 and Cincinnati didn’t show up for me against Fresno, but if you were to listen to Brandon, he liked Fresno in that one and he nailed that call. However, a sweet 2-to-1 odds 4-team teaser made the week a fantastic one for me. My teaser card hit with LSU -2.5, Notre Dame -3.5, Missouri -4, and Colorado -4.5. My teaser of TCU -6/Over 43.5 also hit, but I did not touch that game. When it comes to teasers, I often strike gold. For many of the week 1 college football games, I recommended teasing the line down (Notre Dame, TCU, and Colorado) since I simply did not like the high spreads.

Virginia Tech vs. Boise State – Final Word

I’m about to flip-flop on this pick. I originally came out and called Virginia Tech to win based on two key factors: (1) VT’s triple threat running attack may cause trouble for Boise State; and (2) VT is playing this came close to home (at FedEx Field in Washington DC). However, the more I think about this matchup, the more I like Boise State. If Virginia Tech wants to win this one, they will have to keep this game low scoring. They simply cannot beat Boise in a shootout.

If Virginia …

Ryan Williams is one nasty RB.

BOISE STATE BRONCOS @ VIRGINIA TECH HOKIES (+2.5)

Scanning through the week 1 college football lines, the game that stands out this week other than Pitt @ Utah is Boise State @ Virginia Tech (+2.5).  Two National Championship contenders, the No. 5 ranked Broncos and the No. 6. Hokies will be squaring off week one, in the Sunday Night Lights. The game is set for Monday, September 6th, on ESPN at 8:00pm. To be completely fair, this one is a toss up and I’m giving a slight nod to Virginia Tech. If I’ve learned one thing over the years, it’s that this team has performed exceptionally well at home in night games. Although they won’t have the advantage of playing on their home turf at Lane Stadium, they’ll still have a distinct home-field advantage playing at FedEx Field in Washington D.C.

With that said, I would be careless and hasty to say that Boise State doesn’t have a shot in this game. Despite VT’s huge home-field advantage, Boise State is 10-3 ATS on the road in their last 13 games. Even better is the fact that Boise State has 23 of the 24 players that started in the Fiesta Bowl returning. If your memory fails you, Boise State defeated No. 3 TCU last year 17-10 in the Fiesta Bowl and remained undefeated.

BSU’s QB Kellen Moore threw for over two miles last season (3,537 yards to be exact) with a ridiculous 39 TDs. Moore also has all of his top playmakers back again this season. Boise State has an opportunity to play for a National Championship if they win this game. This game is their National Championship, which is why I cannot …

Not only was Thursday a hell of a day, but we’ve gotten off to a great start again today.  We started off at 11:00 with a Rutgers pick that set the table for the rest of the day.  Rutgers cruised over Louisville 34-13 and we only had to give up 3 points.  I hope you capitalized off that pick. STAMP!

Then Brandon’s Game of the Year #4 hit, boosting his “game of the year” record to 3-1.  I was stunned myself when I saw that as his game of the year, but he gave me a hell of an explanation, so I didn’t second guess his judgment and jumped on Auburn +10 parlayed with the under in that game, which pushed, but I still got to take down the Auburn +10.  After the 11:00 game, we hit the 2:30 game. STAMP!

At the 7:00 spot we have Pittsburgh at WVU.  I’m making a small play on a teaser of Pitt +7 and the Under 55.  I’m expecting a tight defensive game.  I don’t want to make it too big with Pitt on the road, but I think they come out on top in this one.  STAMP!

Following the 7:00 game, we have Boise State and Nevada kicking off at 10:00.  Let’s get to the pick.

NEVADA WOLFPACK @ BOISE STATE BRONCOS -13.5

The over/under for this one is set at 70, so like any Boise State game, expect to see a lot of scoring. Boise averaged 44 PPG, while Nevada averages 41 PPG. Boise State gives up 17.3 PPG, while Nevada gives up 25.6 PPG.

Nevada’s offense has been utterly ridiculous all season long. They’re averaging 534 yards per game, more than 70 yards per game than Boise’s average of …

Current Profit/Loss -1.4 units

Nice win last night and looking to start rolling as we get into the third weekend of college football. I know you can’t make a living playing against home dogs, but tonight I just think Fresno State is simply out-classed. Tough spot for Fresno State here coming off that difficult road loss to Wisconsin in double overtime. Now they return home to face a Boise State team that is much better than Wisconsin or Fresno State in just about every statistical category. Currently Boise State seems to be in what I will term the “Killer Position.” Boise State literally destroyed an Oregon team that will feel the effects of that loss for the rest of the season. They completely crushed Miami-Ohio and covered the 38.5 point spread. Tonight they take on Fresno State in a very vulnerable position (still feeling the blow from last week). Plus add to that, that Boise State loves playing in these nationally televised games and will be pumped up to show off their talent again. Fresno State has not faced a defense as tough as Boise State. Fresno State’s QB looked great in the first half verse the Badgers, throwing 3 TDs, but threw 3 Ints in the second half. I just see Boise State really coming out prepared, focused, and determined to show they belong in another BCS game. Remember this, Boise State will likely not play in a bowl game if the suffer even one loss, so each game is that much more important to them.

The Play: Boise State (-7.5) for 2 units…

Sorry I haven’t posted in a while guys, I was in Vegas. Had a pretty successful trip as I hit a video poker machine with 4 Aces and a kicker which paid $2000. Anyways it is back to reality and we have a bunch of bowl games to analyze.

TCU v. Boise State (+3):

Without a doubt the public is all over TCU, with 57% of the money on the spread going on TCU. I just don’t understand why. TCU has the better defense, but I just don’t believe they are that different: TCU’s D only allows 166 passing yards and under 50 yards rushing. However BSU’s D allows 189 passing and 105 rushing, which is also rock solid. Both of TCU’s losses have come on the road against Oklahoma and Utah. The key for me here is that Oklahoma loss. BSU’s offense is very similar to Oklahoma and I believe BSU will exploit TCU’s weakness in the secondary. I think BSU’s can beat them deep and score at will. I am calling it now, BSU in a route. I have already played this game on the money line. So take the points if you feel the need, but I just see BSU playing an overall better game and with a chip on their shoulder after getting snubbed from a major bowl game.

The Play: Boise State moneyline (+130)…