Cincinnati Bearcats

QB Zach Collaros can get it done in the air or on the ground. He's the real deal.

When I saw the line open at Cincinnati -1.5, my eyes opened up and I was in a state of disbelief. Something has to be up because this football spread is just too favorable if my first impression serves me correct. Sure, Cincinnati lost their head coach Brian Kelly to Notre Dame and they don’t have QB Tony Pike this season either (29 TDs last season in just 8 starts), but did the oddsmakers forget that Fresno State lost the nation’s best running back RB Ryan Matthews (1808 yards, 19 TDs) and play in the WAC?

Cincinnati has a more than capable quarterback in QB Zach Collaros (1436 passing yards, 344 rushing yards, 10 passing TDs, 4 rushing TDs in 4 starts), who filled in for the injured Tony Pike last season. I am enamored with this kid. In Collaros’s five games after Pike’s injury (he had 132 rushing yards in his debut once Pike went down vs. USF), he averaged 65 rushing yards per game. Collaros helped lead the Bearcats to a 12-0 regular season by going 4-0 as their starter and beating quality teams such as Connecticut and West Virginia. He threw for 4 TDs against Syracuse and racked up 480 passing yards, 75 rushing yards, and 3 TDs against Connecticut. Collaros won over Bearcats fans and there were many who wanted him to remain the starting QB for the rest of the season.

Collaros also has a ton of weapons to work with again this season as the offense returns 8 starters including returning RB Isaiah Pead (806 rushing yards, 201 receiving yards, 11 TDs), WR Armon …

Here is where my head is at concerning the Saturday college football games. Nothing big here, just some small bets.

1.) Pac 10 Teaser — USC over Arizona, Cal over WASHINGTON — USC and Cal are 7-point favorites, I’ll pair those together and take them at pick ’em games.

2.) Cincinnati -2 over PITTSBURGH — I’ll take advantage of the low spread here. Although Pittsburgh has a quality defense and a running game that will move the ball on Cincy, Cincinnati has one of the best offenses in football and should just outscore Pittsburgh in this one.

3.) Florida -5.5 over ALABAMA — Should be a great game. I say Florida wins by 7-10. Better offense, better defense. Alabama just hasn’t done enough to impress me like Florida has. Plus, Tim Tebow loves Jesus too much for him to lose. Will be really close with the spread, but I’ll take the Gators.…

Before we get into this game, remember to sign up for THE PASS RUSH’s pick ’em league.  Here are quick links to my NFL picks and Brandon’s NCAA picks.

#25 WEST VIRGINA (7-2) @ #5 CINCINNATI (9-0) -9.5

We have a tremendous college football game for Friday night.  The Mountaineers will travel to Cincinnati to face the undefeated Bearcats.  Let’s try to break down this matchup and see which team is a good pick against the spread.  Cincinnati has been better against the spread this year than West Virginia: Cincinnati is 6-3 ATS and West Virginia is 2-6 ATS.

Cincinatti is averaging 40 PPG and allowing 16.4 PPG.  West Virginia is averaging 28.3 PPG and allowing 20.9 PPG.  When these teams met last year, Cincinnati won 26-23.  Cincinnati has a much better team this year though.  Cincinatti has a clear advantage with their passing game.  Cincy is averaging 355 yards per game, 100 more yards per game than West Virginia’s passing average.  West Virginia’s edge is their rushing defense.  WVU gives up 120 rushing yards per game (3.4 YPR) compared to Cincy’s 172 yard average (4.2 YPR), but that doesn’t matter that much since Cincinnati is a pass first, run second team.

Tony Pike might get some action this game, but it will be backup Zach Callaros that will be getting the start for Cincinnatti once again.  No worry about Pike sitting out,  Callaros is playing just as well, maybe even better than Pike was.  Callaros is averaging 12.3 yards per passing attempt and has 10 TDs and just 1 INT.

I would have been all over Cincinnati if I didn’t see what happened to them last week.  Cincinnati barely topped Connecticut last week, winning by a score …