Florida Gators

Here is where my head is at concerning the Saturday college football games. Nothing big here, just some small bets.

1.) Pac 10 Teaser — USC over Arizona, Cal over WASHINGTON — USC and Cal are 7-point favorites, I’ll pair those together and take them at pick ’em games.

2.) Cincinnati -2 over PITTSBURGH — I’ll take advantage of the low spread here. Although Pittsburgh has a quality defense and a running game that will move the ball on Cincy, Cincinnati has one of the best offenses in football and should just outscore Pittsburgh in this one.

3.) Florida -5.5 over ALABAMA — Should be a great game. I say Florida wins by 7-10. Better offense, better defense. Alabama just hasn’t done enough to impress me like Florida has. Plus, Tim Tebow loves Jesus too much for him to lose. Will be really close with the spread, but I’ll take the Gators.…

FLORIDA GATORS (4-0) -9 @ LSU TIGERS (5-0)

First order of business is checking the status of Tim Tebow.  As your probably already know, Tebow suffered a concussion last week and is questionable for the game meaning that there’s about a 50/50 shot that he plays.  The latest word on Tebow is that he will play IF he is medically cleared by passing a test and this will be a game-time decision.  I would not wager of this game until Tebow’s status is 100% certain.  If he plays, I would lean towards taking the Gators at -9, but if he’s out, taking LSU +9 is likely the play to make.  Let’s look at the tale of the tape.

Both teams are unbeaten this season.  Florida is averaging 45.5 PPG and allowing 7.2 PPG.  LSU is averaging 27.0 PPG and allowing 14.8 PPG.  Florida won the last contest between these two teams last November by a score of 51-20.  Florida’s most impressive wins this season are their week 1 win over Oklahoma 24-14 and their win last week on the road over Kentucky, 41-7.  LSU has only played 1 legitimate team and 4 weaker teams and their sole “impressive” win was a 20-13 win on the road against Georgia.  The week before that, LSU barely beat Mississipp State on the road, escaping with a 30-26 win.

Not only does Florida have Tebow questionable, but their injury list is almost a mile long (see full list here).  With several offensive linemen, linebackers, and wide receivers out for Florida, that raises a lot of questions on whether they can cover the 9 points on the road.

Florida is an impressive 11-1 against-the-spread (ATS) in their last 12 road games, while LSU …

I’m going to throw out some quick week 7 college picks against the spread (HOME TEAMS IN CAPS). I like the Vanderbilt and BYU picks the most and I would give some consideration to Kentucky.

Vanderbilt -3 OVER MISSISSIPPI STATE

I like this game a lot. Vanderbilt is rolling with their 5-0 record and they’re 5-0 ATS to boot. Mississippi State is a dismal 1-4 (2-2 ATS) with their sole win over Southeastern Louisiana. They were manhandeled by Georgia Tech, but in their defense, they hung with LSU losing that one by a score of 34-24. Vandy has impressive wins over Auburn, Ole Miss, and South Carolina. Vanderbilt is also manufacturing turnovers. Their 26.6 PPG is better than Miss St.’s 16.2 and Vandy is only allowing 16.2 PPG compared to Miss. St.’s 21.4.

KENTUCKY -1 OVER South Carolina

This should be a good one. Kentrucky is 4-1 and S. Carolina is 4-2. Kentucky is scoring more points than the Game Cocks, are allowing less points, and have the advantage being at home. Kentucky is 3-0 at home this year (albiet, against teams they should crush) compared to S. Carolina’s 1-1 road record. S. Carolina dropped one last week to Ole Miss, while Kentucky lost by only 3 on the road to an outstanding Alabama team.

Iowa -5 OVER INDIANA

Indiana doesn’t play much defense and Iowa does. Iowa’s dropped 3 straight, but they’ve faced very good teams (Michigan State, Northwester, Pittsburgh). Indiana lost by 13 to Michigan State at home, 42-29. Iowa lost to MSU on the road 16-13. They held a team with a Heisman hopeful RB to 16 points: that’s very good. I like Iowa’s defense to dominate this game and Indiana’s defense should give up points.

LSU …