Louisville Cardinals

RUTGERS SCARLETT KNIGHTS -3 @ LOUISVILLE CARDINALS

We start football today at 11:00 and the game that I’ve been eying up all week is Rutgers -3. The spread is so low, it made me question whether this is a trap game. The spread is low because their stud WR Tim Brown is questionable and their kicker is also out (could affect some field goals and field position, which is kind of a big deal).

Rutgers also lost last week to a weak Syracuse team 31-13. As Lucky Lester likes to point out, the theme of the year is that solid teams usually bounce back after a poor performance.  I have faith in Tom Savage and that Rutgers running attack against a 4-7 team that gives up an average of 25.5 PPG and scores just 18.5 PPG.

Rutgers blanked South Florida 31-0 prior to the Syracuse loss, they beat a solid UCONN team, they beat up on Maryland, and they hung in their with #10 Pittsburgh.  Louisville isn’t even close to good.  They haven’t beaten any quality teams and their sole division win comes by a 10-9 victory over Syracuse. The Louisville D has a hard time stopping anyone.  They gave up 34 to South Florida, 41 to Cincinnatti, 35 to Pittsburgh, and 38 to UCONN.  Their offense hasn’t really shown up either.

If WR Tim Brown is out, I expect this one to be fairly close throughout the game, but I’m on board with Rutgers.  I would bank on a rebound by Rutgers and I look to take advantage of a low spread.

Prediction: Rutgers 24 – Louisville 17

Free Pick: Rutgers -3 (Confidence: 2.5/5) (W)…

Overall Profit 1.3 units

Hope several of you were able to cash a ticket last night as we brought home an easy winner with UAB winning outright as a 9 point dog. We look to continue rolling tonight and win our third straight game.

Pitt vs Louisville (+7) This line simply does not make a whole lot of sense to me. For the second straight week Pitt is a road favorite and I simply do see enough from them to be laying a touchdown in conference play. Louisville has not been all that impressive losing 2 of 3, but have faced difficult road challenges playing at Kentucky and Utah. They now return home to open up conference play and I expect to see a much different team tonight. Pitt does dominate in most statistical categories, but I just don’t think these two defenses are all that different. Therefore, look for Louisville’s D to slow the Panthers down and keep this game close for the offense. Another thing that seems suspect is that most sites show that the majority of the money continues to roll in on Pitt. However, the line has not really moved all that much as it remains at 7. Which seems to indicate to me that some “smart” money is really on Louisville and if this line would be adjusted the heavy hitters would pound Louisville. I look for this game to be very similar to last night’s battle with Louisville coming away with the win.

The Play: Louisville (+7) for 1 unit. (L)

Good Luck…