Pittsburgh Panthers

Dion Lewis looks to start the season by running wild on the Utes.

The football season is almost upon us. Training camps are in full-mode — injuries are popping up, rookies are developing, and preseason games are about to get underway. Although I cannot wait for the NFL to begin, we get an early start with college football the week prior to the NFL season kicking off.  Although betting on preseason football games is nothing more than a coin toss, week 1 of college football is when good money can always me made.

We start the season on Thursday, September 2. The game of the day in terms of viewing (as opposed betting on) is the Pittsburgh Panthers (+3.5) @ Utah Utes, which I imagine will be broadcasted on ABC or ESPN at the 8:30 time slot, which will be followed by USC (-19) @ Hawaii on ESPN at 11:00.

Both teams last year were BCS contenders and both teams finished the season with 10-3 records.  Impressive by all means. Pitt finished 17th in the final BCS standings while Utah wound up 24th.  Pitt’s defense was their main strength with the 19th best defense in the league. Utah was best known for their potent offense, which ranked 34th in the nation and averaged 29.8 PPG.

The player to watch in this game is none other than emerging RB Dion Lewis, who was a yard shy of an 1800-yard season last year. Dion piled up 18 TDs in his freshman year. In his sophomore year, he is going to tear up the NCAA. Against a Utah defense that is returning just 4 starters, I’m smelling trouble for a young defense that gave up 138 rushing yards per game last …

Here is where my head is at concerning the Saturday college football games. Nothing big here, just some small bets.

1.) Pac 10 Teaser — USC over Arizona, Cal over WASHINGTON — USC and Cal are 7-point favorites, I’ll pair those together and take them at pick ’em games.

2.) Cincinnati -2 over PITTSBURGH — I’ll take advantage of the low spread here. Although Pittsburgh has a quality defense and a running game that will move the ball on Cincy, Cincinnati has one of the best offenses in football and should just outscore Pittsburgh in this one.

3.) Florida -5.5 over ALABAMA — Should be a great game. I say Florida wins by 7-10. Better offense, better defense. Alabama just hasn’t done enough to impress me like Florida has. Plus, Tim Tebow loves Jesus too much for him to lose. Will be really close with the spread, but I’ll take the Gators.…

PITTSBURGH PANTHERS @ WEST VIRGINIA MOUNTAINEERS

Tonight we are treated to the Backyard Brawl at 7:00 on ESPN.  Pittsburgh seeks to get their 10th win of the season and secure a spot in a BCS Standings if they are able to get a win.  A lot of people like the Panthers in this one due to the low spread and I think that is the play to make in this one, but I’m always hesitant to bet on the road team in a big rivalry game.  That’s mostly because I attended this game in 2003 when WVU waxed Pitt 54-31.  2003 was a long time ago though!  Pittsburgh has won this battle the last two years.  Last year they won the game in Pittsburgh 19-15 and the year before that Pitt won 13-9 when it was played in West Virginia.  That is probably why so many people like the under 48.5 in this game.

Both teams bread and butter is their running game.  That is how they win football games.  However, on the other side of the ball, each of these team’s strength is their rushing defense.  Due to that factor, I think you’ll see a lot of stops on third down, which will lead to more punting and less scoring, which makes the under 48.5 looks like the play to make there.  Both of these teams can score though.  Pitt averages 33.8 PPG and WVU averages 27.6 PPG, which is why you’re seeing a high over/under for this game.  The defenses allow a combined 38.2 points though.  Pitts gives up an average of 17.6 PPG, while WVU gives up an average of 21.2.  Each of these teams’ last two games have gone under.  6/9 of Pitt’s games have …

PITTSBURGH PANTHERS (5-1) -6 @ RUTGERS SCARLET KNIGHTS (4-1)

Tonight’s college football action features a pretty decent game for a Friday night.  Pittsburgh will be traveling to take on the Rutgers.  After Rutgers was embarrassed in week one by Cincinnati, a lot of people wrote off Rutgers as a terrible team, but we didn’t realize just how good of a team Cincinnati truly is.  Despite rattling off four straight wins, Rutgers hasn’t beaten anyone impressive.  They destroyed Texas Southern last week 42-0 and beat Maryland 34-13 the week before.

Pittsburgh is coming off a last-minute win against UCONN at home last week.  Pittsburgh has an edge at the QB position.  Bill Stull is completing 67% of his passes, has passed for 13 TDs with just 3 INTs, and has 1256 yards.  That’s almost double Rutgers’ QB Tom Savage’s output, who is only completing 55% of his passes.

What’s impressed me with Rutgers lately is their defense and play against the run.  In Rutger’s last 3 games, they’ve completely shut down the run, allowing just 0.6 yards per attempt.  On the year, they’re allowing just 2.3 yards per attempt.  In all other stats, these teams match up pretty well.  Both score an average of 31-34 points while the defenses allow 16-18 points.

With Pittsburgh’s QB, that gives Pittsburgh a tremendous edge, but I’m really impressed with how Rutgers has been able to completely shut down the run the last few games.

10/16 experts like Pittsburgh to cover the spread and Pittsburgh has 67% of the consensus vote.  I’m going against the grain here.  I think Pittsburgh may have done a little too much partying last week after the UCONN win and comes out with a lack of focus.

I’ll take the …

Overall Profit 1.3 units

Hope several of you were able to cash a ticket last night as we brought home an easy winner with UAB winning outright as a 9 point dog. We look to continue rolling tonight and win our third straight game.

Pitt vs Louisville (+7) This line simply does not make a whole lot of sense to me. For the second straight week Pitt is a road favorite and I simply do see enough from them to be laying a touchdown in conference play. Louisville has not been all that impressive losing 2 of 3, but have faced difficult road challenges playing at Kentucky and Utah. They now return home to open up conference play and I expect to see a much different team tonight. Pitt does dominate in most statistical categories, but I just don’t think these two defenses are all that different. Therefore, look for Louisville’s D to slow the Panthers down and keep this game close for the offense. Another thing that seems suspect is that most sites show that the majority of the money continues to roll in on Pitt. However, the line has not really moved all that much as it remains at 7. Which seems to indicate to me that some “smart” money is really on Louisville and if this line would be adjusted the heavy hitters would pound Louisville. I look for this game to be very similar to last night’s battle with Louisville coming away with the win.

The Play: Louisville (+7) for 1 unit. (L)

Good Luck…

There are some big “must watch” college games this Saturday and that’s what I want to cover. These are really tough to call, but here are my two cents. I actually like the Maryland and Pittsburgh picks more than the high-profile matchups below.

#8 OKLAHOMA STATE COWBOYS @ #1 TEXAS LONGHORNS -12.5

I was a bit surprised the line was this high. I love Texas to win this one. Oklahoma St. is playing at a high level. Both teams are 7-0 and averaging more than 45 PPG. Both teams are perfect against the spread this year. Texas has the edge at QB with Colt McCoy who is the frontrunner to win the Hiesman and Texas has the better defense. With the home field, I see them winning this one, but will they run away with the game just like the Missouri game? That’s difficult to say. I don’t like the high spread for a game that should be an offensive showdown. This one is too close to call with the spread. I love Texas to win outright, but I don’t like giving up 12.5 in what should be a close game. I’m not indicating to take the points by the prediction as I can also see a Texas beat down just like the Missouri game. It’s just your best bet to avoid this spread or tease it to Texas -5.5 with another game.

Prediction — Texas 38 – Oklahoma State 28

#9 GEORGIA BULLDOGS @ #11 LSU TIGERS -1.5

I like the Bulldogs in this one. They have a much better QB in Matthew Staffard than LSU and have more playmakers with WRs JR Green and Mohamed Massaquoi and RB Knowshon Moreno (6.0 YPC, 11 TDs). Both teams are averaging …

There are a few week 13 college football games that I like tomorrow. If you’re looking for the Week 12 NFL previews, you can get to those by following the link. Here are the NCAA football games that I like.

Georgia Bulldogs -3.5 @ Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets

The 9-2 Bulldogs have been great. They’ve won 3-straight games over ranked opponents by an average of 16 points. They beat Florida by 12, Auburn by 25, and Kentucky by 11. Their only losses are to Tennessee and South Carolina, two very solid teams. Georgia Tech is 7-4 (4-4 in the ACC) and don’t impress me too much. They were beat up by Virginia Tech at home 27-3 and are coming off a mere 2-point win over a weak North Carolina team.

Prediction – Georgia defeats Goergia Tech – 24-10

Georgia Moneyline – Confidence 4/5
Georgia -3.5 Spread – Confidence 4/5 (Bought line at -3)

South Florida Bulls -9 @ Pittsburgh Panthers

South Florida outmatches Pittsburgh in all offensive and defensive categories. After losing 3 straight (to UConn, Rutgers, and Cincinnati), the Bulls have gotten things back on track with big wins over Syracuse (41-10) and Louisville (55-17). Pittsburgh does nothing to impress me. They’ve lost to Connecticut by 20, Louisville by 7, and Virginia by 30, but they’ve kept it close at Rutgers, only losing by 4. They should struggle offensively against this Bulls defense and hopefully the Bulls offense can keep things going.

Prediction – South Florida defeats Pittsburgh – 27-13

South Florida Moneyline – Confidence 4/5
South Florida -9 Spread – Confidence 3/5…