NFL Picks

It’s never easy picking playoff games, so I usually tread lightly throughout the playoffs. Most of the picks last week were low-confidence plays. In the last two years, the underdogs went 6-2 ATS in the Wild Card round, so I decided to play the trend and take the dogs this past week. Taking the dogs ended up 1-3 with Tim Tebow getting the sole cover.

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (-3.5) @ SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS

The books are giving much love to the 49ers and their top-ranked defense that gives up just 14.3 PPG (10.9 PPG at home). I think you’ll actually see the Saints punt at least once this game (unlike last game). That’s right, not a single punt from the Saints last game. Despite how good the 49ers defense is, I don’t think you see the 49ers hold the Saints to less than 24 points. However, there is a dramatic drop in PPG for the Saints when they travel. The Saints average about 41 PPG at home, but just 24 PPG on the road. That’s something to be concerned about. I actually think the bye weeks hurts the 49ers hurts more than it helps them since the Saints are coming into this game with a ton of momentum following their dominating win over the Lions last week. I’m going with the Saints this week and think you see them win by 7.

Prediction: Saints 27 – 49ers 20

Pick Against the Spread: Saints -3.5 (Confidence: 3/5)

DENVER BRONCOS (+13.5) @ NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS

Granted, New England beat up on Denver just a few weeks ago 41-23, but it’s a whole new day for Tim Tebow and the Broncos. I will take the points mainly because I want to root for …

At the time of this post, it looks like the Lions pick is panning out according to plan. The Lions got the opportunity to set the tone by scoring the first touchdown of the day, which was the key to their gameplan, as they’ll be able to carry a 14-10 lead into halftime which gives those with the points a 14.5-point lead at halftime. Let’s take a look at Sunday’s action.

ATLANTA FALCONS (+3) @ NEW YORK GIANTS

First, full disclosure, I am an Eagles fan so I am never going to take the Giants in the playoffs, so this pick is totally bias. First, the Giants are inconsistent. They can either be on fire or they can absolutely suck. They can manage to beat the Cowboys twice and the Jets once, but they’ll lose to the Redskins and Seahawks. I guess you can call division games never easy and the Seahawks game a fluke. This is a pretty even match-up. Homefield advantage is key. If this is played in Atlanta, you take the Falcons — no doubt about it.  But with the game played in New York, it gives the Giants a legitimate shot. Both offenses are quite impressive. Even there. Both have good defenses. Even there. I just want to see the Giants lose so I’ll go Falcons here.

Prediction: Falcons 27 – Giants 24

Pick Against the Spread: Falcons +3 (Confidence: 3/5)

PITTSBURGH STEELERS (-9) @ DENVER BRONCOS

This is going to be an ugly game. The over/under 33.5 is telling of that. The Steelers D is going to absolutely stifle Tim Tebow and the Broncos. The Steelers have given up an average of 14 PPG during the season and 9.7 PPG in their last 3 games. …

It is good to be back. The holidays are always crazy. We finished the year strong going 2-0 in week 16 and hitting our top pick in the Falcons in week 17. We are ready to roll into the playoffs with more juice in our pockets. It is wild card weekend and four games are on tap. The playoffs are extremely tough to pick against the spread. In the last two years, the wild card dogs went 6-2 ATS. I may have to play the trend and pick every dog on this week’s card. If I’m not taking the points, I am staying away as I think you take the points in all four games this weekend.

CINCINATTI BENGALS (+4) @ HOUSTON TEXANS

The Texans have made the playoffs for the first time in their history and will have to rely on their rookie T.J. Yates who is 2-3 as a starter and has an average QB rating of 80.3. T.J. faced the Bengals on December 11th and pulled out the victory, winning a tight one 20-19. In that game, Yates threw for 300 yards, 2 TDs, and 1 INT. The player to watch in this one is obviously Arian Foster who will take on the 10th ranked run defense in the NFL. When Arian faced the Bengals just a few weeks ago, he was completely shut down. Foster was held to 41 rushing yards and posted his worst per-carry average of the season, racking up just 2.7 YPC.

This game should be another tight one. I’ll trust the Bengals D to contain Adrian Foster again and put the pressure on Yates to win this game with his arm. In their last game, the Texans won 20-19.  I expect a …

Good morning and Happy New Year from the West Coast. It’s so weird that football games start at 10:00 AM. I just woke up hungover and it’s halftime in the 1:00 games. How do these people live? Week 17 is always a crap shoot anyway.

At 4:00, I think you continue to pound the Bucs by taking the Falcons (-9.5) at home and go with Pittsburgh (-7) on the road over Cleveland. In the rest of the games, I’ll stick with Tim Tebow at home to rebound from last week’s embarrassing loss, San Diego (+2.5) over Oakland, and Seattle (+2.5) over Arizona. My top 4:00 play has to be the Falcons followed by the Steelers.

Sorry I missed the 1:00 action, but my only play there would have been Bears (+1.5) over Vikings.

Happy New Years!…

Merry Christmas everyone.  I have been getting into the habit of posting my football picks on Saturdays, but all of the football action is today due to the holiday. All I can do at this point is throw up some quick picks. Not a whole lot of games that I like anyway. We’ll have to tease the Pats and Ravens and go with the Panthers over the Bucs.

TEASER: PATRIOTS (-2) over Miami w/ RAVENS (-4) over Browns

We have two home teams with big spreads to cover that should be a lock to win as they’re both jocking for playoff position in the AFC. The Patriots should take care of business at home over the Dolphins and the Ravens should take care of business against the Browns.

Prediction: Patriots 27 – Dolphins 20

Prediction: Ravens 27 – Browns 13

Pick Against the Spread: Patriots (-2) and Ravens (-4) Teaser (Confidence: 3/5)

CAROLINA PANTHERS (-9) over Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Bucs have been awful losing 8 straights games and going 1-7 ATS in that stretch. The Panthers dominated the Bucs 3 weeks ago when they played in Tampa 38-19. I don’t see any reason why this week should be different. The Panthers defense is a huge liability and can let you down, but there’s no doubt the Panthers will outscore the Bucs here. The Bucs average 16.7 PPG on the road and 16.0 PPG in their last three games. Carolina has averaged 29.8 PPG in their last three games. They are rolling right now. Tampa’s defense has also given up an average of 36.7 PPG in their last three games.

Prediction: Panthers 31 – Bucs 17

Pick Against the Spread: Panthers -9 (Confidence: 3/5)…

We are coming in to tonight’s Monday Night game 6-0 ATS in our last 6 Monday Night picks. I would ordinarily just pass over this game as too close to call, but I have to post a pick to keep the Monday Night streak alive! I’m going to recommend a teaser by taking the points and the under.

PITTSBURGH STEELERS @ SAN FRANSISCO 49ERS (-3)

Despite Big Ben getting the start tonight, the 49ers stay at 3-point favorites. I say take advantage of the points. This is a pretty even matchup on both sides of the ball. While the 49ers have averaged 28 PPG at home and 23.6 PPG throughout the season, the 49ers offense has struggled lately, scoring just 19 against the Cardinals and putting up 6 on the Ravens. Patrick Willis is also out this game.

This is a big game for the Steelers, who have an opportunity to move up a game on the Ravens in the AFC North race, which is the difference between a No. 1 or 2 seed vs. a No. 5 seed. In what will no doubt be a tight game, I will want the points on my side, especially since the Steelers could win outright.

With both defenses giving up a combined 18.6 PPG in their last 3 games — that’s 6.3 PPG allowed by Pittsburgh and 12.3 PPG allowed by the 49ers — the under 37.5 is compelling. What is even more compelling is adding the points to the over and taking the Steelers at +10.

I usually like to tease Monday Night games and see the perfect opportunity to take points while betting on the under with two of the best defenses in the league squaring off. Points will be …

We have now hit our last 6 Monday Night Picks! The season is winding up and teams are jocking for playoff positions. Fantasy football playoffs are in full gear. Let’s see what’s on this week’s card.

WASHINGTON REDSKINS @ NEW YORK GIANTS (-6.5)

Don’t let the Redskins shootout against the Patriots last week fool you. The Redskins offense isn’t that good. The Patriots defense is just that bad. With all of the injuries to the Redskins defense, Tom Brady took advantage and posted 34 points. I expect Eli Manning to pick apart the Redskins secondary this game while the Giants defense limits the Redskins offensively. Last December when the Giants played the Redskins at home, they won 31-7 as 7-point favorites. I’m expecting a similar outcome, but a bit tighter. This is essentially a playoff game as the Giants and Cowboys are both on top of the division at 7-6 and you can expect the Cowboys to defeat the Bucs on Saturday Night.

Prediction: Giants 27 – Redskins 13

Pick Against the Spread: Giants -6.5 (Confidence: 3/5)

CINCINNATI BENGALS (-6) @ ST. LOUIS RAMS

I’m always looking to bet against the Rams. I have bet against them several times this year with great successs, although the Rams did burn me once when they upset the Saints at home. With the Rams 2-11 ATS record, there hasn’t been a better team to bet against this year. I was riding the Bengals earlier this season, but not lately with their tough schedule in their last 5 games. They have been on a rough five-game stretch going 1-4 (0-4-1 ATS), but their schedule has been brutal (Houston, Baltimore, and Pittsburgh twice). When they faced the Browns on the road, the Bengals cost me …