NFL Picks

It was a great week for me as I hit my top 2 picks with the 3 posted picks going 2-0-1 against the spread. I hit on the 49ers/Packers teaser, hit on the Bears, and the Falcons pick pushed.

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS @ NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (-17)

I’m going with the Patriots tonight. The last time the Chiefs played on Monday Night, I took the Chiefs in a teaser over the Chargers and ended up hitting. The Chiefs even won outright 23-20 as 3.5-point dogs. I’ll go with Brady almost every time. The line opened at Patriots -14 and moved to -17 so the public is all over the Patriots with the high spread. I am fully expecting a rout tonight with Matt Cassel out for the Chiefs just like everyone else is. The Chiefs may also be without their best corner Brandon Flowers. I’ve already had a big week and hate high spreads so this is going to be just a small play.

Prediction: Patriots 38 – Chiefs 10

Pick Against the Spread: Patriots -17 (Confidence: 3/5)…

In the pick ’em league, yours truly ended up numero uno last week with 11 wins for a 11-5 ATS record bringing my season record to 74-66 ATS. The Monday Night play also helped me make up some ground on the Seahawks upset over the Ravens. There’s not a whole lot of games that I like this week. There’s a couple road teams in pick ’em games that I would consider, BUF (+1) @ MIA, JAC (+1) @ CLE, OAK (-1) @ MIN, but I view them as coin tosses. Here is what I have on tap for you this week. I’m not crazy about my two straight-up picks, but really like the Packers/49ers teaser.

SAN DIEGO CHARGERS @ CHICAGO BEARS (-3.5)

When picking teams, finding teams carrying momentum is always a smart move and the team with the most momentum in the NFL right now is the Chicago Bears who are coming into this one with 4-straight wins. The problem with momentum teams is not getting a favorable spread since if this game was played three weeks ago, the game would likely be a pick ’em instead of the Bears as 3.5-point favorites. After the Bears Monday Night loss to the Lions, they’ve had dominating wins over the Vikings, Bucs, Eagles, and Lions. The Bears are putting up a surprising 31.4 PPG at home and limiting teams to 18.2 PPG.

San Diego, on the other hand, hasn’t performed well on the road. Their defense is giving up 27.2 PPG when travelling. With the Chargers key defensive playmakers (Castillo and Phillips) still out, I think you go Bears here. The Chargers are also likely without offensive linemen Louis Vasquez and Marcus McNeil — they’re listed as questionable. The Bears have …

I led the pick ’em league this week with a 10-5 ATS record, but the posted picks went 1-2 ATS which I apologize for. I hit on the Texans pick, but fell victim to another shocking upset with the Seahawks topping the Ravens. Logic would dictate that if the Ravens beat the Steelers twice, and the Steelers beat the Bengals, and the Bengals destroyed the Seahawks, that the Ravens should destroy the Seahawks, but logic doesn’t always play out in the NFL, especially when trying to pick road favorites to win. But we hit on the Falcons as road favorites last week and hit on the Texans as road favorites this week — you win some, you lose some. Onto Monday Night.

MINNESOTA VIKINGS @ GREEN BAY PACKERS (-13)

I would lean Packers at home on Monday Night. Their offense is just dominating, but the Vikings have improved since they’ve put in Christian Ponder at QB. I don’t liking giving up so many points since a 7-13 point win by the Packers is within the realm of possibilities. I would tease the Packers down to -6 and tease the over/under from 49.5 to 42.5 and take the over. The over is 7-2 in the Packers last 9 home games, but the under  is 7-1 in the Vikings last 8 road games. I was originally leaning picking the under 56.5 since it’s just a ton of points, but I think the Packers are due for 30 and the Vikings are due for 20, so one more TD would bust up the card. The game should end in a minimum score of 24-20, 27-17, or 31-13 to hit on the over.

We all know the Packers are going to get their points. …

I will elaborate on my week 10 picks prior to kickoff, but I wanted to get something up beforehand so you know where my head is at for this week. I’m going to be looking into the following games.

BALTIMORE RAVENS (-6.5) @ SEATTLE SEAHAWKS

Love betting against the Seahawks. I didn’t do it last week as I took the 11 points over Dallas and got the cover in the pick ’em league, but I scored a victory the week before betting against them when they faced the Bengals. The Ravens should dominate this game on both sides of the ball.

HOUSTON TEXANS (-3.5) @ TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS

Houston is rolling with 3 wins in a row in domination fashion. Tampa Bay’s offense is struggling. I’m expecting a close one here and won’t be surprised if Tampa pulls off the upset, but it’s a shot worth taking. Andre Johnson is out again, but that hasn’t stopped the Texans from scoring. Houston is averaging 31.7 PPG in their last three games, albeit against Cleveland, Jacksonville, and Tennessee.

TENNESSEE TITANS @ CAROLINA PANTHERS (-3.5)

I’ll take another shot on the Panthers at home. Although they fell short against the Vikings last week, I’m hoping you get a rebound game from Cam Newton and the rest of the offense. Double check Cam Newton’s status. He has stiffness in his right shoulder and is listed on the injury report as probable.

 …

Last week I went 8-5 ATS. Posted picks went 2-2 ATS. Although we fell victim to the Saints upset and missed on the Panthers pick, we got some of that back with the Bengals (-3) over the Seahawks and we hit our Monday Night play thanks to the Chiefs.

ATLANTA FALCONS (-7) @ INDIANAPOLIS COLTS

You have to be careful picking your spots when betting against home dogs (see the Saints last week). Are the Colts due for a win or at least a solid effort against the Falcons? Perhaps. But this is one the Falcons should win by double-digits. The Falcons got off to a slow start, but have turned the corner and are becoming the team that many people thought they could be coming into this season. The Falcons are coming off a bye week after they had two big wins in their previous games. They are coming off a big 31-17 win over the Panthers and a 23-16 win over the Lions. If the Falcons could hold the Panthers and Lions to 17 points or less, how many points do you think the Colts can score against them? The Colts are scoring just 15.1 PPG while surrendering 31.5 PPG. The Colts have given up a minimum of 23 points in every game this season. Based on stats, you’re thinking worst-case scenario, the Falcons win 24-17. Michael Turner should also have a big game against the Colts 31st-ranked run defense. That will help the Falcons sustain drives and put up a ton of points.

Prediction: Falcons 31 – Colts 13

Free Pick Against the Spread: Falcons -7 (Confidence: 4/5)

CINCINNATI BENGALS (+3) @ TENNESSEE TITANS

I’ve been a huge fan of the Bengals this year as they delivered …

WEEK 8 SUMMARY

The posted picks went 1-2 ATS this week, but I dominated the pick ’em league with an 8-4 ATS record. I now sit in 8th among the 32 active teams with a 57-51 record ATS. Well played by The Vaidya Twist who now ranks 1st ahead of perenial favorites Deez Nuts and Mempis Gangstas. Although I missed on the Saints and Panthers picks, I made some of that back with my 4:00 pick thanks to an easy win with the Bengals (-3) over the Seahawks.

SAN DIEGO CHARGERS (-3.5) @ KANSAS CITY CHIEFS

Tonight’s Monday Night game is between AFC West rivals, Kansas City Chiefs and San Diego Chargers. When was the last time the Chiefs had a Monday Night home game? Oh that’s right, that was last year when the Chiefs upset the Chargers in the opening week 21-14 as 4-point dogs. The Kansas City crowd will be jacked up again for this one. King posted why he likes the Chiefs. He makes some compelling arguments.

For purposes of the pick ’em league, I’ll stick with the Chargers (-3.5). As far as my money is concerned, I will be passing on the game, as I don’t want to take the Chargers (-3.5) on the road on Monday Night. You know the rule: don’t bet against a home dog on Monday Night (unless Tom Brady is playing the Dolphins). I’m not sold on the Chiefs (+3.5), but if you tease the spread up to Chiefs (+10.5) with the over 37, it makes the game more interesting for me.

I have a bit of a gut feeling that this will be a high-scoring contest. Maybe it’s just wishful thinking since I have Philip Rivers, Ryan Matthews, and …

We have an AFC West showdown tonight as the San Diego Chargers travel to Kansas City to face off against the Chiefs.  Right now the current line has the Chargers giving Kansas City 3 points, while the over/under hasn’t moved much and sits at 44.5.

First glance has this game looking like blowout with the first place Chargers against the hapless Kansas City Chiefs.  The Chargers are currently at a 4-2 record, but some could say that they are the worst NFL division leader at the current time.  Their only games against good teams came on the road in New York against the Jets as well as in New England against the Pats.  Who have they beat? Well the Minnesota Vikings, Kansas City Chiefs (earlier this year by 3 points), Miami Dolphins, and the Denver Broncos.  None of those were even close to being impressive wins.

Let’s just say the start the Kansas City Chiefs had to the season is one to forget, losing by a combined score of 89-10 in their first two match-ups.  Things turned around though when they traveled to San Diego to face off against the Chargers, only losing by a field goal. Following that week, they rattled off three straight wins and with a win tonight will be tied for first place in the division, crazy to think about.

San Diego isn’t the same San Diego that we have been used to.  The Chiefs are hot and are going to be ready to go tonight playing at home on a Monday Night in a crazy packed stadium.

I have a source on a 17-5-0 ATS run currently who is on Kansas City tonight.

Prediction: Chargers 24 – Chiefs 28

Pick Against the Spread: Chiefs (+3) …