NFL Picks

Last week was a solid week. We recommended three picks and we hit two of our top three picks. We hit on New Orleans (-7) over Jacksonville, Washington Redskins (-1) over St. Louis Rams, but missed on Atlanta Falcons (-4.5) over Seattle Seahawks. My overall record in week 4 was 9-7 ATS and my yearly total is 32-30 ATS. My pick ’em league record is 31-31, but Yahoo did not update the Redskins +3.5 against the Cowboys and listed the game as a pick ’em and I took the Skins with the points. All three games were 4/5 star picks last week, but this week, all I have is handful of 3/5 star picks.

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS @ NEW YORK GIANTS (-9.5)

I’m going to target the Seattle Seahawks all season, although a healthy Sidney Rice, who went off last week, makes them slightly more dangerous to bet against. The Seahawks made a valient come-back effort against the Falcons by getting the cover, but failed to get the win. The Falcons took a 24-7 lead into the half until the Seahawks put up 3 TDs in the second half while limiting the Falcons to two field goals. Tavaris Jackson put up solid numbers with 319 yards and 3 TDs. I don’t expect that type of repeat performance on the road when a west-coast team has to play on the east coast at 1:00. The Seahawks running games has really struggled and their defense is lacking, giving up 24.2 PPG so the Giants can run away with this game in a hurry. The Giants have had the Seahawks number — beating them 41-7 on the road last year and 44-6 in 2008. The Giants offense should roll over a poor defense when …

To all the haters, you have to acknowledge that I nailed that Cowboys vs. Redskins game. I was all about the Redskins D going into this game and they made it a close game throughout, so you were feeling good with the 3.5 points on your side. The Redskins have a top 5 defense — no doubt about it. I also recommended a teaser of Redskins +10.5 and under 51.5 points. With the Monday night win, I came out on top in week 3. While I listed Lions and Chargers as my top picks in week 3, if you caught my final word before kickoff, you saw that I avoided the Chargers due to the high spread and changed my top pick at 1:00 from the Lions to the Panthers. The Panthers ended up hitting and the Lions failed to cover by a half point. Onto week 4.

FOREWORD: I have three road favorites on tap this week. I hate going with too many road favorites because every now and then you get burned. Sometimes they work out, sometimes they miss. See the Ravens. They were upset by the Titans in week 2, but won as road favorites against the Rams in week 3. The Steelers also fell into the road favorite trap last week. If you’re looking for points, games where I like the points are Miami +7.5 over San Diego and Carolina +7 over Chicago. It’s going to be an interesting week in the NFL.

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (-7) @ JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS

With the Jaguars non-existent offense, you have to go Saints on the road. The Saints are putting points up at will. How will the Jaguars keep up? There’s no way the Jaguars score more than …

This week, if you checked out our final word on week 3, I changed my top play from the Chargers and Lions to the Carolina Panthers. I didn’t like the Chargers high spread and felt the Vikings were due for a win (or cover). Unfortunately for me, I had the Lions in a parlay and the Lions didn’t show up until the second half. Although they won the game by 23-20, they didn’t cover the 3.5 points they had to lay. I took the Panthers on my top individual ticket and then parlayed them with the Lions. That would have been a sweet win. I put portion of the Carolina win on the Steelers in the night game, who ended up hanging with the Steelers and covering the spread. Another day where I ended about even.

WASHINGTON REDSKINS (+3.5) @ DALLAS COWBOYS

I’ll take the points in tonight’s game. Tony Romo may play with sprained ribs and a couple sacks from the Redskins should send him to the sidelines. His top target in Miles Austin is out. His other primary target in Dez Bryant is questionable. Felix Jones is also banged up. I don’t see the Cowboys offense doing a whole lot against against this tough Redskins defense. The Cowboys will have to rely on Jason Witten to move the chains, so he’ll be getting the full attention of the Redskins and should be contained.

I’ve also been impressed with the Redskins offense so far this year. Rex Grossman is looking like a comeback player of the year candidate. The Redskins have been running the ball with ease. The Redskins offense should be able to hang with the Cowboys banged up offense no problem.

In what looks to be a …

Yesterday my week 4 college football picks went 4-3 ATS. Miami was a huge let down, but the Florida pick got some of that back. On Saturday, I made some game-time decisions which were posted right before kickoff. Of the picks posted, I hit on Georgia Tech (-6.5) over North Carolina, LSU (-6.5) over West Virginia, Florida (-20) over Kentucky, and Clemson (-2.5) over Florida State. I missed on a Notre Dame (-7)/Under 54 parlay, Colorado (+17) over Ohio State, and Miami (-11.5) over Kansas State. I pretty much ended up even on the day, but let’s take a look at the NFL action.

Based on my week 3 picks, you see that I like 5 games on Sunday: San Diego, Detroit, Carolina, Baltimore, and Pittsburgh. At 1:00, I don’t care much for too many of the games. Most are toss ups in my opinion. I think you’re best sticking with Carolina (-3.5) at home over Jacksonville, who is due for their first win. I want to get on Detroit (-3.5) over Minnesota, but I just have that gut feeling that Minnesota is due for a rebound win (or cover) at home. I’m really high on this Detroit team this year.

At 4:00, I like the Chargers (-14.5) despite the high spread. This game should be a blow out just like the Chiefs last two games, but maybe the Cheifs show up this work for the division game and play a hard fought game. If the Chiefs offense can manage just 13 or 14 points, they can cover. However, I’m looking for a 5 TD performance form the Chargers offense to have them cover in comfortable fashion. This is the NFL though, not Florida vs. Kentucky.

If high spreads …

In week 2 of the NFL, I hit my top big-money play in the Detroit Lions (-7.5) over the Kansas City Chiefs. I called a blowout in that game and that’s exactly what happened. There were four games that I recommended last week: Lions, Ravens, Packers, and Cowboys. The Cowboys pushed. The Packers missed on the spread when the Panthers scored a TD on their final drive in the last two minutes to pull the game within 7 points. The Ravens, which I warned was a suckers pick, just didn’t show up in Tennessee and Hasselbeck did a complete 180 from his week 1 performance. Although my top 4 picks went 1-2-1 ATS, I hit my big-money play and that’s pretty much all I care about.

In the pick ’em league, I went 6-8-2 ATS after a 9-5-2 record in week 1. One loss was due to picking my own team in the Eagles that should have won the game if they didn’t shoot themselves in the foot with a fumble on the goal line that led to a Falcons return to the 20 that set up a TD. Those 14-point swings are just killer. My only regretful picks were the Seahawks (+14.5) and Jaguars (+10). I saw an opportunity to take points although I knew the odds were not in their favor and got shot down. You sometimes have to take chances to get ahead in the pick ’em league and those two picks back-fired on me. If I change those picks, I come out two weeks in a row above .500. It was worth a shot. Let’s get onto week 3.

I have five recommendations this week: Chargers, Lions, Steelers, Ravens, and Panthers, and somewhat in that …

Last week my picks went 9-5-2 ATS (click the link to see the pick ’em leaderboard — feel free to join our league!). I hit both 4/5 star picks (Patriots and Cardinals), but missed on my 3/5 star picks (Falcons and Chiefs). After doing more due diligence into the Chiefs vs. Bills game, I smelled trouble, and was lucky enough to change my week 1 survivor pool pick from the Chiefs to the Cardinals before kick off. This is a tough week with a lot of high spreads, but there are a few games I like. I have two  star 4/5 picks (Lions and Ravens) and two 3/5 star picks (Cowboys and Packers).

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS @ DETROIT LIONS (-7.5)

I incorporate herein by reference all comments regarding the Lions from my Week 2 Survivor Pool pick. I love the Lions this year. I have one fantasy team where I drafted Matthew Stafford, Calvin Johnson, Jahvid Best, Brandon Pettigrew, and the Lions defense. I shit you not. Every single one of them. I should take Nate Burleson just for the hell of it.

The Chiefs offense was pathetic. Cassel threw 36 passes for 119 yards. That’s 3.3 yards-per-attempt. How are the Chiefs going to get their running game going with Cassel’s awful quarterback play with a much-improved Lions front seven with Suh, Tulloch, Vanden Bosch, and Fairley. The Chiefs should struggle to find points.

The Lions were awesome on offense last week and could be the greatest show on turf in 2011. The Bills scored at will on the Chiefs last week and the Chiefs lost their best defensive player, Eric Berry. There is a 10% chance the Chiefs rebound and we have a “WTF just happened” …

So far we have 34 participants in our pick ’em league. Out of those 34 teams in the league, 10 finished above .500 and 16 finished .500 or better. Week 1 was no easy task against the spread folks. I managed a 9-5 record and stand in 3rd place behind DeezNuts (2009 Champion) and BigMoose (returning veteran).

Just because you missed out on week 1 doesn’t mean you can’t still join. We are still accepting registrations. Click here to register. League ID is 63470 and the password is thepassrush. There are 240 more regular season games plus the playoffs so just because you’re trailing DeezNuts and BigMoose by 8 points going into week 2 doesn’t mean you’re out of the hunt. The winner gets bragging rights, glory, their team name on the website, and a free NFL Shop custom t-shirt.

Take a look at the leaderboard after week 1.

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