NFL Picks

We enjoyed an easy victory with the Packers last night to add on top of other Sunday winners (Saints and Texans/Over teaser). Tonight we have an AFC North battle, which is much tougher to gauge than last night’s Sunday Night game between Green Bay and Dallas.

PITTSBURGH STEELERS (-5.5) @ CINCINNATI BENGALS

I’m not all over the Steelers like I was with the Packers yesterday. Packers was an easy pick since they were at home and the Cowboys have been terrible. Pittsburgh has to battle this one out with a division rival and that’s going to be tough. The Bengals have been terrible against the spread (2-5) while the Steelers have been decent (4-3). However, some trends are keeping me from going big on the Steelers here: Pittsburgh 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 division games and 2-6 ATS against a team with a losing record. They just underperform as heavy favorites. They win consistently, but in close games.

Count on Pittsburg’s run D to dominate as they’ve been holding their opponents to under 60 yards per game and limiting teams to a 2.6 yards per carry average. Will Cincy’s passing attack be able to move the chains on Pittsburgh? Pitt’s passing D gives up 243 passing yards, while the Bengals passing offense is averaging 254 passing yards. They’ll get some offensive production, but they should be limited.

With a look at the over/under, the line is set at 41. With these offenses averaging 20 PPG and the Steelers D holding their opponents to 14 PPG that favors the under here. The Steelers/Saints game was 20-10 and the Steelers/Dolphins game was 23-22. A more comparable game would be the Ravens/Steelers which ended 17-14.

I think you see a close, low-scoring …

Strong day here as I hit 2 out of 3 on my card.  I played the Saints -6.5, Patriots -4, and Texans +10/Over 42.5. The Saints were my top play and since everyone loved the Pats, I took that one too. Like I mentioned in the write up, you know the traps (home dog off the bye week) and I got trapped into that one. I’m still coming out on top and looking for a final hit in the night game.

DALLAS COWBOYS @ GREEN BAY PACKERS (-7)

The 1-6 Cowboys (I love saying that) are playing the Packers (5-3) in Green Bay tonight. The Cowboys got waxed by the Jaguars last week at home 35-17. They have a lot of issues in their secondary as Garrard passed for 260 yards and 4 TDs with a rushing touchdown to boot. Sims-Walker had 10 receptions for 153 yards. Kitna was forced to drop back 49 times and despite putting up over 350 yards, he threw 4 INTs (two due to balls that bounced off the wide receiver’s hands). It’s safe to say the Cowboys morale is at an all time low.

The Packers are coming back home with a lot of momentum after topping the Jets 9-0 thanks to a stout defensive effort. Despite all the injuries to their defense, they were able to get it done. I clearly like the Packers here. At home on Sunday Night against a team that is struggling on defense giving up 26.7 PPG. What’s not to love? Clay Matthews should harass Jon Kitna all game long and force him into bad decisions. Packers are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 against a team with a losing record and 5-2-1 in their last 8 home …

Something tells me the Saints will turn up the heat in the second half of the season.

Sorry for the late picks but a terrible cold left me sidelined all week. Better late than never. I’m going to have to make this post quick (ha, that never happens), but I’ll try to get through all the games this week. Plenty of good games to take a deeper look into this week. Please help me out by voting in the poll at the end. Thanks!

NEW YORK JETS (-4) @ DETROIT LIONS

Wow! The Jets as mere 4-point favorites in this one? What are the books thinking? The books are thinking that the Lions play good ball at home. Stafford is back and threw 4 TDs against the Washington Redskins last week. The Lions D is also better than their 23.6 PPG allowed. Did you know the Lions have the 6th ranked offense in terms of points scored? The Jets put up a fat 0 last week against the Packers despite showing no signs of offensive struggles in the prior 5 weeks scoring 24+ in each game. You can expect an offensive rebound for the Jets against the Lions. I see the Lions offense finally struggling against the NFL’s best brass. Revis will need to have a big game against Calvin Johnson for the Jets to get the W against the spread. This one will be close with the spread. Think 24-20. I’m going to give the nod to the Jets here.

Prediction: Jets 26 – Lions 20

Pick Against the Spread: Jets -4 (Confidence: 3/5)

TAMPA BAY BUNCCANEERS @ ATLANTA FALCONS (-9)

The Falcons play great ball at home. I love playing the Falcons at home as my last bet …

Make your Holiday legendary with Captain and Cola. Join the party on Facebook.

Welcome back to another edition of our weekly NFL previews. This preview will be presented by Captain Morgan this week and will highlight the NFL’s top 5 matchups for this legendary Halloween weekend, which will feature a Sunday Night game between the New Orleans Saints and Pittsburgh Steelers. Arrrrrrrr!

TENNESSEE TITANS @ SAN DIEGO CHARGERS (-3.5)

Like the Cowboys, the Chargers have gotten off to a very poor start. They’re now sitting at 2-5 thanks to 4 road losses and a home loss to the Patriots. The Titans have been on fire at 5-2 coming off a strong comeback win against my beloved (and often hated) Philadelphia Eagles. The Chargers aren’t as bad as their record, which is why they’re favored by 3.5 points. Their road woes have also really hurt them. I used the “must win” factor as my sole reason for taking the Cowboys at home on Monday Night and it backfired on me, although I gave the pick a mere 2/5 and simply couldn’t forecast Tony Romo going out of the game in the 2nd quarter.

If Chargers get their 6th loss before at the halfway point of the season, they can kiss their season goodbye. Now they have to face a tough Titans team whose defense has been phenomenal despite the losses of Vanden Bosch and Haynesworth. I’m going to recommend taking the points here. The Chargers have too many injuries on both sides of the ball to truly dominate a strong football team here. Although the Chargers play great football at home, they showed last week that they couldn’t overcome the injuries they were faced with. However, I just can’t be …

A must-win situation has me favoring the Cowboys.

It was a strong week for yours truly. I was giving out ridiculous calls that were likely met with laughs. Although they were only 1/5 calls, I did state that Oakland +8 and Cleveland +13 would be winners. I was also very high on Atlanta -3.5, St. Louis +2.5, Washington +3, and New England +3, which were all winners as well. The record so far this week was 8-5 so we’re already coming out on top. I was forced to pick the Eagles which adds a loss to the loss column, but they had the Titans until their 4th quarter melt down.

NEW YORK GIANTS @ DALLAS COWBOYS (-3.5)

We are treated to a classic NFC East rivalry tonight. The 1-4 Cowboys desperately need to win this one against the 4-2 Giants or they can pretty much kiss their season goodbye. Based solely on the fact that this is a “must win” game is a good enough reason for me to pick the Cowboys in this spot. If it wasn’t for the intangible “must win” factor, I would say take the Giants. Their defense has finally come alive and they’ve been on a roll. However, with the Cowboys at home on Monday Night and Wade Phillips on the hot seat, I’m confident the Cowboys will come out winning by 3-7 points.

Perhaps the over is a play to entertain as well with the over/under set at 45. Both teams are scoring and giving up an average of 20 points give or take a few points. However, head-to-head, the over is 6-2-1 in these teams last 9 meetings. The Giants have gone over in 9 of their last 10 against the NFC. The …

Can Philip Rivers overcome the injuries to his offense to top the Pats?

Only 3 4:00 games this week. The 1:00 picks were posted on Thursday and there are plenty of games to look into there. Let’s just get right down to business.

ARIZONA CARDINALS @ SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (-6.5)

Somehow both teams have managed to have winning records although neither deserves to have a winning record if you ask me. Both are 3-2. Arizona is coming off their bye week after upsetting the Saints at home thanks to 14 defensive points in the 4th quarter. The Seahawks are coming off an impressive road win over the Bears. The Seahawks play strong at home where they beat San Diego by 7 and San Fransisco 31-6. There’s just no way I’m going to give up 6.5 points to take the Seahawks. 83% of the public is taking the Seahawks, while they have 60% of the consensus at Covers.com. I’m sure they will win this game, but I’m giving the Cardinals a good shot at covering this one if they can get out of this game by a score of 24-20. Home team is 6-2 ATS in these teams last 8 games. Home field should be the difference. With the Cardinals D giving up 27.6 PPG, the Seahawks look like the play at home. Another game I’m 50/50 on ATS. I think it’s too many points, but until Arizona can improve their run defense, they’ll continue to have issues.

Prediction: Seahawks 27 – Cardinals 20

Pick Against the Spread: Seahawks -6.5 (Confidence: 1/5)

OAKLAND RAIDERS @ DENVER BRONCOS (-8)

I like the Raiders +8 here. The Raiders know how to play the Broncos as they’re 6-2 ATS in their last 8 against them. …

Are the Steelers the team to beat this year?

We got back on track with two positive weeks for our overall picks in the pick ’em league. This past week our top picks in the Saints and Bears split, but we delivered a Monday Night winner going against the home dog on conservative guidance. Sorry for the lack of full updates in the last two weeks, I was away for a bit, but now back on track.

CLEVELAND BROWNS @ NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (-13)

Saints have problems with high spreads as their woes with double-digit spreads has been well documented by us. We recommended Panthers +12.5 two weeks ago which was New Orleans last game in the dome. The Saints ended up winning 16-14 and the Panthers had an easy cover. The Browns haven’t been terrible. They almost covered the 13 points against the Steelers last week until a late TD got the Steelers in the money. The Browns covered against the Ravens on the road. There’s no way I would put money on the Browns since the Saints could easily win this game 31-10, I’m just saying the spread is too high to take the Saints.

Prediction: Saints 24 – Browns 13

Pick Against the Spread: Browns +13 (Confidence: 1/5)

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS @ KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (-9.5)

Good bet against the Jaguars despite the whole Monday Night home-dog fear factor. I’ve always dogged the Jags. They’re just not a good team. I don’t know how they got past the Colts, but they did. I never would have thought the Chiefs would be a 9.5 point favorite at any point in this season. Do the Chiefs finally have an offense? They put up 31 against the Texans, but the Texans …