NFL Picks

Look for Julius Peppers to force Manning into some bad decisions.

ATL and TEN didn’t pan out. I only played ATL since AJAY talked me out of the DEN pick. Thank you sir. You won that one. Well played. Orton is legit. I can’t believe this guy went from “let’s limit this guy to less than 20 throws so he doesn’t lose the game” to “let’s put the ball in his hands 50 times a game so he can win it.” Kyle Orton: the best QB not named Brady or Manning? Should we get used to it? I thought lightning couldn’t strike again for him and it did. Chris Johnson also had two costly fumbles.

In the ATL game, I apologize for not forecasting a blocked punt that led to a TD. Without that play, ATL would have had the cover. I warned everyone this morning to be cautious about those two plays. That’s why I hedged my bets and placed a small bet on the Rams after talking to Brandon this morning. He posted that pick up this morning along with San Diego, so in addition to two big winners on Saturday, he delivered two more big wins today. I followed him with the San Diego pick at 4:00, which I was also high on, and along with the Rams pick, made up for the Atlanta loss.

CHICAGO BEARS @ NEW YORK GIANTS (-3.5)

I’m surprised the Giants are favored by this much. They’ve been absolutely horrendous. Their defense, which is usually strong, has been abysmal, giving up 28 PPG. I can understand the Giants being favored since they’re at home and perhaps “due for a win” just like the Browns were “due for a win” this week and …

Will week 4 leave us flabbergasted? What surprises will happen this week?

Thanks to Brandon’s Play of the Year #1, I was able to have a solid Saturday in college football. If my memory serves me correct, Brandon’s “plays of the year” were 4-1 ATS last season (reference, see last year’s Auburn +10.5 over Alabama call). How do you like that call? So when he gives out a game like that, you should listen up. Brandon also hit on his 2nd play with Arizona State +3.5 over Oregon State thanks to a 4th quarter rally that got Arizona State in the money. Joey G’s pick in Nevada won well into double digits, but he layed 20.5 to take them and they came out by just 18 points. A missed touchdown on the goal line cost him that one. Tough defeat, but he’ll get them back.

As far as today’s action is concerned, I posted some updates for the 1:00 games. You’ll want to see what I have to add about the Falcons and Titans picks. I also switched my Saints pick to taking the Panthers and the points and you’ll see my reasons why. 13.5 is a ton of points. I’m counting on the Panthers to keep the game within reach. I gave it a mere 1/5 rating though since it’s the Saints at home and Jimmy Clausin is the QB so it’s not worthy of my money.

Brandon also likes Rams (+2) and Chargers (-8) and I concur. Although Steven Jackson was questionable and a game-time decision, it looks like he will be active which is another good reason to stick with the Rams at home vs. an awful road team in the Seahawks.…

Michael Vick has returned to being a superstar.

We’re back with our 4:00 picks. If you saw yesterday’s week 4 1:00 picks you saw that I’m high on the Atlanta Falcons (-7) over the San Fransisco 49ers. I also like the Tennessee Titans (-6.5) over the Denver Broncos, but I took some flak on that pick. The spread is steep and Kyle Orton has been as good as any QB in the league this year. You say Kyle Orton and I say Courtland Finnegan and Michael Griffin. Onto the week 4 picks.

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (-7) @ JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS

I took the Eagles last week and took them pretty big so it was a glorious win for me and it was also great to see Michael Vick just dominate (highlights at the end). The popular pick here is the Colts seeing how they bounced back after their Texans loss with two double-digit wins over the Giants and Broncos. Everyone is going to think that they can do it again. I’m slightly hesitant because the Jags always keep it close with the Colts. Last year the Colts vs. Jags games were 35-31 and 14-12. Garrard is playing like crap though with a 66.7 QB rating on the year and Maurice Jone-Drew has been locked up and hasn’t seen the end zone once this year (true story). The Jags have also given up a ton of points. They generate zero pass rush and they can’t cover. That spells disaster if you’re playing Peyton Manning. I’m expecting Manning to have a field day here while the Jaguars continue to struggle to find points. Jags are the home dog and maybe they’re due to “bounce back,” but I don’t see it happening. This Jaguars team …

I'm liking ATL (-7) over SF and TEN (-6.5) over DEN this week at 1:00. An ATL/TEN teaser looks promising.

The theme of week 1 was don’t bet against home dogs, we cleaned up in week 2 with two home winners (GB and ATL), then last week we felt the wrath of the road dogs. Road dogs went 7-1 ATS. My 1:00 play was the Ravens (-11) which missed by 4. At 4:00 I chose to bet against the Jaguars at home and took my team the Philadelphia Eagles (-3) because I was that damn confident in Michael Vick and it made up for the Ravens loss. If I didn’t play the Eagles, I would have taken the Colts, which I plugged so hopefully you found some winners on Sunday. I also told you so stay away from the MNF game which was golden advice. Let’s week what games are in tap in week 4.

DENVER BRONCOS @ TENNESSEE TITANS (-6.5)

I’ll definitely pick the Titans here. I don’t see the Broncos having an answer for Chris Johnson and when the Titans have been forced to throw the ball, Vince Young has done very well. Young hasn’t had to throw the ball more than 20 times in a game this season thanks to CJ. Other than the Pittsburgh loss, he posted QB ratings of 105 and 142. I expect another solid game while CJ carries the offense to another W at home. Titans D has also been very strong and should give the Broncos fits. Denver is disadvantaged with the long road trip and playing at 1:00. West coast teams struggle on the road in 1:00 games and I love playing that angle and will have more to say on …

It's going to be a battle of two gunslingers tonight!

GREEN BAY PACKERS (-3) @ CHICAGO BEARS

Tonight is Monday Night Football and it’s time for a classic NFC North matchup as the Chicago Bears host the Green Bay Packers. Both teams are 2-0 to start the season. Bears come into this one 1-1 ATS, failing to cover at home against the Lions and following that up with a route over the Cowboys on the road. The Packers come in at 2-0 ATS with dominating wins over the Eagles and Bills.

As I keep exhausting ad naseum, beware of home dogs. Home dogs are 3-4 ATS this week and somewhere in the range of 9-6-3 ATS in the first two weeks. These low spreads a la Redskins (-3.5) @ Rams and 49ers (-2.5) @ Chiefs lure you in and that’s how the books will trap you. However, there are plenty of road favorites who came through this past week if you were fortunate enough to take the Eagles, Colts, Bengals, or Steelers.

I’m going to take the Packers here. They are just way too talented. Not only do they have a top 5 offense, but I would also place their defense in the top 5. They are a championship caliber team and seeing how the Saints have started this season, I think there is room to even argue that the Packers are currently the best team in the National Football League.

I am that high on the Packers after seeing first hand how their defensive players fly around. Not only do the Pack have A.J. Hawk and Nick Barnett to tie down their LBs, but they added Clay Matthews on the outside who has been an absolute beast to …

Road dogs screwed a lot of people going 7-1 ATS, while the home dogs go 3-4.

Yesterday was rather uneventful. My two “big games” were 1-1. I played the Ravens (-11) and Eagles (-3). Since I split those and hit two out of three from Saturday, I decided to place a small bet on the Sunday Night game just so the day wasn’t so boring coming out as a split. Good thing I kept that play small as I suggested since the Dolphins didn’t get the job done at home as I had anticipated.

Home teams has been my theme throughout the season and a lot of road dogs came out on top this week, going 7-1 ATS. Road dogs who covered this week: Jets, Cowboys, Falcons, Titans, Raiders, Browns, and Bills. 4 outright winners. 7 winners against the spread. Sole road dog that didn’t cover was the Lions (didn’t cover by 1 point). You do not see that often gentlemen.

Thanks to a handful of home dogs, I stayed away from most games just to see how well the home dogs would do this week. Like I said, this week will be our “experimental week.” The home dogs turned out to be 3-4 ATS. I’m sure the books are happy with that since the flood of money that was placed on Redskins, Chargers, and 49ers went to them. I at least warned you about those home dogs so hopefully you averted some losses if you were eying up those teams. I was lucky enough to play the Eagles (-3), who made up for the Ravens not covering the 11 points against the Browns. I was also high on the Bengals and Colts and …

Can Vick lead the Eagles past the Jags?

The Ravens pick didn’t go as well as it did in my head. It was looking good when the Ravens jumped out to a 14-3 lead thanks to 2 Anquan Boldin TDs, but then the Ravens offense failed them. They couldn’t convert some key 3rd downs and the Browns got the ball and put some nice drives together despite the losses of Delhomme, Jerome Harrison, and Robiskie.

Cleveland didn’t turn over the ball as I thought they would and they controlled the clock. Like I said, be weary of high spreads, but I wasn’t going to take any road teams after their disastrous start to the season. Didn’t think the Browns offense could handle the Ravens D, especially without some key players, and thought the Browns horrendous D would show up once again on the road.

With the Ravens up 21-17, there’s a still a shot at covering with 9 minutes left, but they need a TD for the push. Time for that turnover that’s due. Wallace fumbles, but recovers at CLE’s 3 to set up a 3rd and 28, so there is still a shot here.

All 1:00 games seamed to play out as a 50/50 percent chance of either team covering. Only clear winner was Steelers over Bucs. Kansas City also dominated their game against San Fransisco, leading 24-3 in the 3rd. There’s no way anyone thought the Chiefs could put up 24 points against the Niners. No one. As I said, if the Chiefs come out on top, you know just how big the home-dog factor has played out this season, but the Steelers came out on top against the home dog Bucs. Gauging what will happen on Sunday …