NFL Picks

Ravens baby... Ravens!

Hope everyone had a nice college Saturday going into NFL Sunday. I had two nice hits thanks to Nevada (-4) and Stanford (-4.5). My other play on Saturday was South Carolina (+3). South Carolina had 4 turnovers in the 4th quarter after being in the driver’s seat the entire game and failed to cover. It was the right pick, but I guess you can’t win ’em all. I’ll take two out of three any day. Those were the three games that I played on Saturday.

I also recommended Kansas and Florida State in my write up and those picks hit. There were also some other heartbreakers mixed in those picks. Good thing I played TCU (-18) small on Friday since they won by 17 points after the extra point on TCU’s last TD was missed. That wasn’t fixed, right? Oregon also missed the -11.5 cover by a half point. I also kept everyone away from Alabama (-7). I should have even come out a said that Arkansas (+7) was the play, but not many people have made a living betting against college football’s best teams. Ohio State also covered the 42.5 points against Eastern Michigan, 73-20.

Enough about college football. Today I’m liking the Ravens (-11) at 1:00. The line opened at -11, which is where I grabbed it, but has moved to -12.5. Why do I like the Ravens? Well I’m not going to be crazy enough to put my money on any road favorites. There’s over a half dozen home dogs this week, so we’ll really see how well the home dog theory works out.

What worked last week? Home teams, home teams, home teams. We played Atlanta (-6.5) and Green Bay …

Well I had a rough Thursday night. Pitt looked like THE worst team in CFB, total opposite of what they looked like against Utah. I am sorry for that pick I wrote about. Forgive me. But I hope you did play on Joey G’s UNDER, contrarily to what many of you thought, which hit easily.

Last Sunday in my ‘Small Play’ article I went 3-1-0 with the only loss coming as the Giants got smacked by Peyton and Co. I feel as if I know the NFL much better than CFB, so I will not make any CFB picks but stay with the NFL. I am putting this article out a little earlier than usual so you can soak in my picks and take some winners. I am most confident in my first two plays, but I like them all.

1) Play on the UNDER 33 in the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Pittsburgh Steelers game.Both offenses are terrible and Pitt has their third string QB starting the game. LOSER

2) Play on the UNDER 37 in the Cleveland Browns and Baltimore Ravens game. Look for Baltimore to score more points with their defense this week than their offense, especially with Seneca Wallace getting the start. This is one of my most confident picks of the season so far. Me and JOEY G both love this under. Take it. LOSER

3) Play on the Atlanta Falcons (+3.5) against the N.O. Saints. Atlanta’s defense has been very impressive so far this year, look for them to cause problems for Drew Brees and his offense. I bet not too many of you like this pick, and that’s exactly why I do. I just told Joey G about my pick, he gave me the …

Some big over/under plays for 1:00 Week 3 of the NFL.

I hope you guys enjoyed three free winners this past week in the NFL. Cincinnati and Baltimore wasn’t even close. The Jets helped push the over with their fourth quarter touchdown. And thanks to the game winning field goal by New Orleans as time expired they were able to push it over the total by a few points. I also threw in an under in the Carolina/Tampa Bay game that hit, which made me 4-0-0 on the week in over/under calls.

Once again, I’m going to base my picks off of the trend. It seemed to work last week so why not try it again this week?

Look for a low scoring affair between these two teams on Sunday.

I’ve been researching all day on some of the most popular trends, and trends that are going to give us some winners.

Let’s take a look:

Cleveland Browns @ Baltimore Ravens:

Key Trends:

• Cleveland under is 4-0 in their last four played in September.
• Cleveland under is 4-1-1 when a road dog of 10.5+ points.
• Baltimore under is 5-1-1 in their last seven games.
• Baltimore under is 12-3 in last 15 games played as a favorite.
• Baltimore under is 8-3 in last 11 home games.
• Baltimore under is 9-2-1 in last 12 against AFC opponents.

Play on under (37)

Buffalo Bills @ New England Patriots

Key Trends:

• Buffalo under is 4-0 in last four road games.
• Buffalo under is 5-0 in last five games as the underdog.
• Buffalo under is 6-1 in last seven games.
• Buffalo under is 4-1 in last five against an AFC opponent.
• New England under is 4-0-1 in last five games as a favorite of 10.5

Tom Brady: "Iceman (sniff, sniff), you stink."

I’m trying out something new this week and that’s breaking up my picks into 1:00 games and 4:00 games. We covered 1:00 games yesterday, let’s see what’s good at 4:00.  We have 4 more home dogs coming up at 4:00, so the home dog theory is in full effect this week. Let’s see how it works out in week 3. I’m picking against all of them which may make me look like a genius or idiot. We shall see. I’m not sure if any are worth a shot for my money, but you’ll have to decide on that. Proceed with caution gentlemen. This time slot’s theme? TOP GUN. Highway to the Danger Zone music video is after the jump for your enjoyment.

WASHINGTON REDSKINS (-3.5) @ ST. LOUIS RAMS

You see over and over again, absurdly low spreads when road teams are favored. Why is this? To sucker people like you in. Everyone is going to be taking the Redskins here. How can you not like the Skins against the Rams, right? They have a very good defense. Sure that gave up 30 the Texans including 20 in the second half, but the Texans are a top 5 offense in the NFL thanks to Andre Johnson, who had 12 receptions for 158 yards in that contest. I can understand the books expecting the Redskins to come out flat after last week’s tough loss, but I expect Donovan McNabb to pick apart the Rams defense while the Rams’ Sam Bradford struggles against a typically tough defense. Bradford has posted QB ratings of 53 and 86 so far this year and has 3 TDs to 4 INTs, but really should only have 3 INTs …

Do I have your attention?

Last week we hit our top 2 plays in Green Bay (-13) and Atlanta (-6.5). Why did we hit these? Because we looked for the best home teams to take and of course stayed away from betting against home dogs. Although the public was all over the Patriots, Ravens, Eagles, and Saints, they all failed to cover the spread against the home dog. We hopefully kept you away from those sucker picks and steared you in the right direction with Green Bay and Atlanta. Although, I was the sucker who added Pats (+4) to my teaser which I hit 3/4 on. “If the Patriots lose this one, it’ll be by less than 4,” right? Wrong. Don’t bet against home dogs.

Here are my week 3 NFL picks against the spread. We’re doing things differently this week, we’re splitting the picks into 1:00 games and 4:00 games. 4:00 games come out tomorrow, so be sure to return for those.

ATLANTA FALCONS @ NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (-3)

Atlanta looked hot at home last week, but struggled on the road against a tough Pittsburgh defense. This just goes to show you how important home field advantage is or maybe the Cardinals are truly horrific. The Saints haven’t scored points in prolific fashion like last year, but they’ve faced the Vikings and 49ers. That’s excusable. The Falcons D must be respected. They’re a good squad. This one looks to be close with the spread and I really think you’ll end up pushing here. Should be a great game to watch. This and Cowboys/Texans is what will have my attention this week at 1:00.

Prediction: Saints 27 – Falcons 23

Pick Against the Spread: Saints -3 (Confidence: …

Hope you followed and took our picks this week.

Wow. What a week huh? When asked to join this site last week and contribute my knowledge of college and NFL football, never did I imagine a first week like this. Let’s just take a look at some of the stats of this first week.

Joey G: 6-2-0 overall going 3-1-0 in college and 3-1-0 in NFL. Hope you took a look at my over/under special yesterday as it went 2-0-0.

The Kid: 3-2-0 yesterday hitting the majority of his NFL picks. Started 3-1-0 until that shocking blowout of the Colts over the Giants.

Vegas & Brandon: These two had an amazing college Saturday of picks. Nebraska, Alabama, Arizona, Boise St., Ball St. — all winners along with Vegas’s high confidence NFL plays.

Later in the week be sure to check for our Week 4 college picks and our Week 3 NFL picks. Saying this year has been a success would be an understatement at this point. I look forward to seeing what YOU think of our picks this week. Be sure to comment on anything.

Along with Vegas, I agree on the no action play tonight in the 49ers/Saints game.…

No action tonight? NO ACTION?!?

It was a hell of a week for us here at THE PASS RUSH. We produced Thursday Night and Friday Night winners, we had a plethora of hits on Saturday (I was 3-0 in Alabama, Nebraska, and Arizona; Brandon’s big play in play in Boise State hit, and more), my two big plays on Sunday hit in Green Bay and Atlanta, Joey G and the Kid hit the majority of over/under plays.

The only place where I ended up getting careless was not following my own advice and betting against the home dog, throwing Patriots (+4) into my 4-team teaser which the first three hit on. I thought the 2007 Patriots were back. I thought wrong. Since I was up big on the day, I decided to throw a little something on Sunday Night game. Thought the Giants could keep it close with the run game so I favored the points which I teased to +11 and paired with the over 41. I should have known better with the Colts being at home, but with their run D, I didn’t want to be left exposed at Colts (-5.5) and I thought the Giants would be like sharks who smelt blood in the water against a poor run defense. I’m not going to beat myself over a pick I gave a 1/5 rating on though.

Last week only reinforced the lesson that you don’t bet against home dogs. Home dogs who covered last week included the Jets, Bengals, and Lions. 3 home dogs, 3 winners with the spread (2 won outright). Washington (+3) was also looking golden and ended up pushing thanks to a 4th-quarter comeback by the Texans. Tonight we find ourselves in …