NFL Picks

Ochocinco and the Bengals have a tough divisional rival game this Sunday against the Baltimore Ravens.

After researching for some big NFL Week 2 winners, I found some very interesting trends that you guys might want to take a look at, and even put money on.

I have only been working for this website for two days, but last week I put money down on three over/under bets and went 2-0-1 (just to note the push of the San Fan over of 37, it was 28-6 with nine minutes remaining in the third quarter and both teams only managed to score three more points the rest of the game, so that was upsetting). Now all three of those bets that I made were because I found some very intriguing trends between the teams matched up.

Let’s take a look at some of my favorite over/under picks for week two:

Baltimore Ravens @ Cincinnati Bengals (o/u = 40):

Top Trend: Cincinnati games against division opponents have gone under 11 of the last 12 games played within the last three seasons.

Notes: Did you not see Baltimore’s defense Monday night? They haven’t lost a beat. Cincinnati needs a much better first half.

Play on the under.

New England Patriots @ New York Jets (o/u = 38):

Top Trend: 12 of the last 14 New England games against conference opponents have gone over.

Play on the over.

San Francisco 49ers @ New Orleans Saints (o/u = 44):

Top Trend: Off a division game, San Francisco has had 10 of their last 11 games following go over.

Notes: Don’t be fooled by the slow start that Drew Brees and the Saints got off to in week one, the majority of week one games do …

Very tough week. The home dog factor is messing with my head.

We’re back for our week 2 NFL picks. As many of you have already seen and commented on, we’re bringing on a new contributor to THE PASS RUSH. Brandon and I have teamed up for the last four years to provide weekly NFL and CFB picks against the spread with outstanding analysis. Although we’re expected to post winning percentages close to the 1990’s Chicago Bulls, we’ve still achieved solid success with our picks, but we’re obviously in this game to provide more consistent winners and I believe that the contributions from Joey G and the Kid will help accomplish that. Catch their introduction to the site.

Last week I came out 10-5 straight up and 5-5-3 ATS in the NFL. Not bad, but we need that winning percentage to get above .550. You’ll be able to follow our picks in the Pick ‘Em league. It’s never too late to sign up. League info is on the right above the latest articles.

BALTIMORE RAVENS (-1) @ CINCINNATI BENGALS

Obviously everyone is going to say go Ravens after their big MNF win against the Jets and the Bengals embarrassing loss to the Patriots. With 90% of the money pouring in on the Ravens, why is this spread at Bengals +1. Wouldn’t you think that the Bengals should be getting at least 3-4 points in this contest? One thing to consider before jumping the gun on the Ravens is that the Ravens are playing back-to-back road games and are on a short week. Advantage Bengals. Sometimes you have to consider everything that may go wrong before thinking about what can go right.

The Bengals turned up the heat …

This is how Vegas wins.

Hello THE PASS RUSH fans and users:

We would like to thank Vegas Martin and Brandon for welcoming us and letting us become a part of this great sports analysis website. We are here to add and provide our insights and picks for the remainder of the NCAA and NFL football seasons.

The first thing that all of you should know when betting is: Vegas ALWAYS wins! Vegas will always set lines that bait the ‘squares’ into betting one way or another. One prime example in week one of this NFL season was the Indianapolis Colts @ Houston Texans. Now for all of you Colts and Manning fans who saw that all the Colts had to do was win this game with a spread of -1, you should have thought twice. This is how Vegas gets easy winners. I bet most of you reading this either bet, or would have taken the Colts in this game. We, on the other hand, saw that line and had an easy winner on Houston. Also, we asked some of our peers who they would take in that game with that spread. 100% of them had a comment like this, “Oh, Colts all day. No WAY they will lose the season opener; they have Peyton Manning.”

Well, Joey G and The Kid are here to help guide you along to some free winners. Vegas Martin and Brandon have done a fabulous job for the past four years. We are here to help you ‘squares’ turn into ‘sharps’ and ultimately beat Vegas at the weeks end.

STAY TUNED: our confidence picks on NFL and NCAAFB are coming soon. We look forward to advancing your betting skills and making you …

Thinking of betting against a home underdog? Reconsider.

If you’ve listened to Brandon’s advice, you never bet against a home dog. Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose, but you certainly have to be cautious when betting against a home dog. The 49ers and Chargers losses are two prime examples. However, I won off Miami and the Packers also covered against the Eagles, so it’s not like it’s a full-proof method. Here’s some info that you will not want to forget for the rest of the season.

Home Dogs Who Covered and Won Outright:

1. Houston (+2) over Indianapolis
2. Seattle (+3.5) over San Fransisco
3. Kansas City (+5.5) over San Diego
4. Pittsburgh (+2.5) over Atlanta
5. Washington (+3.5) over Dallas

Home Dogs Who Lost and Did Not Cover:

1. Green Bay over Philadelphia (+4)
2. Miami over Buffalo (+4)

Home Dogs Who Pushed:

1. Rams (+4) vs. Cardinals

My picks came out 10-5 straight up and 6-6-3 ATS this week. If you’re wondering where the 16th game is from that record, I abstained from the Eagles game since I would have been stoned to death if I were to say that the Packers would win and/or cover due to my allegiance to my team. I’ll take a .500 week ATS in week 1 of the NFL and look to improve next week.

It seems like nobody saw the 49ers or Chargers losing this week. Here is a screen shot of Yahoo’s picks straight up, not even against the spread. As far as consensus picks against the spread are concerned, the one place you want to check other than THE PASS RUSH of course is CBS’s Expert Picks who call the games against the spread, unlike Yahoo and ESPN who just make their picks straight up. 2/5 of CBS’s team called Seattle and Kansas City to cover so props to those guys.

Yahoo, on the other hand, did not see the 49ers and Chargers losses coming.

…

If I told you the Browns were one of the best teams in the NFL to bet on ATS in 2009, would you believe me? No, but they were. Despite the Browns 5-11 record, they were 10-6 against the spread, which puts then in the top five behind Green Bay (11-4-1), San Fransisco (9-4-3), and Atlanta (11-5). Here is some very interesting information that you will want to consider when making your picks for the remainder of the year.

Top 5 2009 NFL Teams Against the Spread

1. Green Bay Packers — 11-4-1 (.733)
2. San Fransisco 49ers – 9-4-3 (.690)
3. Atlanta Falcons — 11-5 (.687)
4. Cleveland Browns — 10-6 (.625)
5. Indianapolis Colts – 10-6 (.625)

Worst 5 2009 NFL Teams Against the Spread

1. Detroit Lions — 4-10-2 (.285)
2. Jacksonville Jaguars — 5-11 (.312)
3. Pittsburgh Steelers — 5-10-1 (.333)
4. Seattle Seahawks — 6-10 (.375)
5. New York Giants — 6-9-1 (.400)

History lessons are always nice. As you can see, even if you’re taking the top teams to bet on, your winning percentage like falls in the .600’s.  NFL Week 3 picks will be posted tonight or tomorrow. I may also be bringing on more contributors to THE PASS RUSH.

Other 2009 NFL Trends Spotted

• Best Home Team ATS: Atlanta Falcons (6-2)
• Worst Home Team ATS: Tampa Bay (1-7)
• Best Road Team ATS: Indianapolis Colts (7-1)
• Worst Road Team ATS: Seattle Seahawks (1-7)

Continue to see full 2009 NFL standings against the spread »…

Miami secured the 15-10 win.  I had Miami at -3 and was pretty pissed when the Bills scored a TD on 4th and 11 to make the score 13-10. The Dolphins pinned the Bills down on their 1 and got a safety in the final minutes of the game for the cover for anyone who had the game at -3 or -4. I was expecting more from Miami’s offense, but a win is a win, and I’ll gladly take it.

I’m now hoping the 49ers at -3 can deliver another big win at 4:15 game. I cleaned up on two college games yesterday with my picks of Alabama and Oklahoma. We won the 1:00 game. We’re hoping for a 4:15 win to come out of the weekend 4-0.

Come on 49ers. Go Eagles. Good luck everyone!

5:15 Update: This 49ers game is irritating the hell out of me. Although they’re up 6-0, they could easily be up 21-0. They had a TD overturned and had to settle for their first field goal, they went for it on 4th and 1 on the 6 and couldn’t pick up the first down. They had a 3rd and 1 on the 1-yard line and couldn’t get the ball in and settled for a field goal. With Gore and their line, I don’t know why they’re not winning the battle in the trenches. Let’s go San Fran.

5:35 Update: To make matters worse, Seattle put up a quick score to make the game 7-6 and then intercepted the ball on the 49ers next drive in their own territory which led to another TD. It’s now 14-6. A lot of bad breaks in this game. Completely unacceptable.

6:00 Update: 49ers start the second half …