NFL Picks

Vegas Martin’s top 6 NFL plays from week 9 went 4-2 against the spread this past weekend, so it’s good that we ended up on the winning side yet again.  That is now 3-straight winning weeks and our last 4/5 weeks have been positive. Unfortunately, the top 2 plays didn’t pan out, but we made up all that ground and then some when we found 2 winners at the 4:00 time slot and got another easy win on Monday night with the Steelers over the Broncos pick.

I hope anyone who took a hit on the Packers or Ravens picks boldly followed me into the 4:00 games and the Monday Night game to take back whatever was ours for the taking. New rule, never bet against a home underdog off the bye week. I have been preaching about that all season long, but failed to take my own advice. I felt the Packers over the Bucs and Ravens over the Bengals were both strong plays despite that significant factor to their disadvantage, but we learned the hard way and will not make that mistake again.

Don’t forget to check out Brandon’s week 11 college picks and to sign up for our Yahoo pick ’em league.

On to the week 10 NFL action to find out where we can make the easy money betting against the spread.

CHICAGO BEARS @ SAN FRANSISCO 49ERS -3

We start getting into Thursday Night football, so this is the first matchup of the week.  I don’t really like it.  Both teams have been hard to figure out this season.  Both teams were hugely disappointing last week and I advised our readers to pass on the Bears/Cardinals and 49ers/Titans game for exactly those reasons.  I …

While Brandon is releasing information that makes spreads move by 3 points, Vegas Martin is scouring the week 9 NFL spreads to find where the easy money can be made.  Last week, Vegas’s top 4 plays scored a 3-1 record.  We lost a little on the Chargers, but we knew it could be difficult to cover 16.5 and were warned by reader TGIS about his skepticism of the play.  In all honesty, I was fully expecting the Raiders to put 6 on the board and the Chargers to get a minimum of 24, but sometimes the Chargers just don’t give give a f@#% about beating the pants off a crappy team like the Raiders.  Accordingly, I hedged my bets with plays on the Cowboys, Texans, and Bears, which all hit with relative ease.

If you also read the comments, you hopefully cashed in on the NO/ATL over 55.5 or my teaser of Saints -5.5 or Falcons +18.5 and the over 49.  That’s why you always have to read the comments for updated info on the game.  Feel free to ask me questions on spreads, more feedback on certain games, or whatever is on your mind, and I will always respond, so use the comments section to your advantage.

Don’t forget to check out Brandon’s Week 10 College Football picks.

Now let’s get down to the nitty gritty.

UPDATE: I should have listened to my own advice.  You keep hearing me talking about “home teams off the bye week.”  Well, two of them won and I picked against them.  To my surprise and to everyone’s, not only did the Bucs get their first win of the season against the Packers, but the Bengals also defeated the Ravens.  At least we …

What a Monday Night game. If you read my comments on this game (you have to read the comments guys), you saw that I was not in favor of the spread for either team and if you watched the game, you obviously saw why I passed on this game. If you had the Saints -10 you were in the money until the Falcons decided to kick a field goal in the final minutes of the game, which was a real kick in the nuts to sports bettors.

I also said to consider the over despite the high 55.5 points it was set at and that was almost locked up by halftime.

Finally, my recommended play on the game was to tease the game in either direction and take the Falcons +18.5 or Saints -5.5 and the over 49. If you teased the game that way, you were an easy winner regardless of which team you took.

Now to the Fact of the Day: The New Orleans Saints defense has more touchdowns than the Cleveland Browns offense. Oh how I love betting against the Browns this season.  It’s too bad they have their bye week this week.

A quick glance at the early lines has me liking Green Bay -9.5 over the Bucs and that’s pretty much the only game that I find attractive on Sunday’s lineup for the spreads that have already been released. I will also be waiting patiently to jump on the Saints over the Panthers and Falcons over the Redskins next week if the number looks attractive.  Unfortunately, those will both be 10+ point spreads.  If you get a single-digit spread on either the Saints or Falcons, I would be a buyer!

All my NFL picks will …

Last week was epic. We made the sports books beg for mercy as Brandon’s Game of the Year #1 hit big and we followed Saturday with a 6-1 record for our top 7 NFL spreads. THE PASS RUSH already got the week off to another great start on Tuesday with the ECU pick and we’re looking to keep rolling into the weekend. Now we get to my impressions on every NFL Week 8 spread.

3-0 for the 3 1:00 games in the top 5!

DENVER BRONCOS @ BALTIMORE RAVENS -3

I’m going to pass on this game. I love what I’m seeing from the Broncos and it’s tempting me to say take the points, but I’m not comfortable with this game for two reasons. First, the Ravens are at home off a bye week. Second, the Broncos are playing an east coast game at 1:00. Due to those two factors alone, I would lean towards giving up the points to take the Ravens, but it’s not a very strong play in my opinion. The Ravens are also surprisingly scoring 28 PPG, but the Broncos allow just 11 PPG. It may be time for the Broncos to suffer their first loss. Kyle Orton can’t go 16-0, can he? The over/under is set a bit high in my opinion at 41.5. The Ravens can score and their defense isn’t as good as it used to be, but due to the Broncos stingy defense, the under may be the play in this one.

Prediction: Ravens 20 – Broncos 17

Free Pick: Pass on the Spread, Consider Under 41.5 (W)

CLEVELAND BROWNS @ CHICAGO BEARS -13

I was not expecting the Bears to get blown out by the Bengals last game.  The loss of …

Thank you for all the great e-mails everyone.  I’m glad we had a killer week and you were able to win a lot of money.  Our readers dominated the books this past week.  The college game of the year hit, all 5 of the original top 5 NFL picks hit, and 6/7 of our top 7 NFL picks hit.  Some of our readers were even able to win 3- and 6-team parlays for serious coin!

A lot of people have been asking me if they can buy me a beer for the great advice on the games this past weekend.  Well, now you have your chance to do just that.  On the right navigation bar, look for the beer icon (it’s right next to the Mike Tyson TKO picture as of now).  If you follow the link, it takes you to PayPal where you are able to fill in whatever amount you would like to donate so you can buy me a beer.  You can use your PayPal account or if you don’t have an account, credit cards are accepted.

For a free service, we’ve been doing a tremendous job at providing you with excellent picks, so please give a little something back to THE PASS RUSH and buy me a beer.

Thanks guys!…

It was an incredible day. After cashing in on Brandon’s “Game of the Year,” Georgia Tech over Virginia, THE PASS RUSH goes 6-1 on their top 7 picks. The original top 5 was an undefeated 5-0! Panthers -7 over Bills and Packers -9 over Browns were then added to the list to bump it up to top 7. THE PASS RUSH gave the books a good old kick-in-the-nuts.

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LOTS OF GREEN FOR 1:00!

I’m going to try to make this one short and sweet since I am running short on time.

LAST MINUTE UPDATES: DT Tommy Harris is out for the Bears, that’s a big blow to their defense.  Richard Seymour is questionable with an illness.  If he’s out, I’m more confident in that Jets pick.  Seymour was the standout on the Raiders D last week.  Trent Edwards is out for the Bills, so I’m like the Panthers -7 pick a bit more.  The Panthers get to pick on Ryan Fitzpatrick, the Bengals terrible backup from last year.  There is rain in the forecast for the SD/KC and NO/MIA games, that gives KC +5 and MIA +6.5 a slight advantage, but I still like SD and NO to cover.  I forgot to mention that the NE/TB game is in London.  With the high spread, you might want to pass on this game since the long flight may make the Pats play flat.  GB -9 over CLE is still probably the best game to take for your money.

GREEN BAY PACKERS -9 @ CLEVELAND BROWNS

The spread on this game wasn’t released when I wrote up my picks, but read Brandon’s reasons for taking the Packers in the comments section.  This game is tied for my favorite game of the week along with Colts -13.5.

Prediction: Packers 31 – Browns 3

Free Pick: Packers -9 (Confidence: 5/5) (W)

SAN DIEGO CHARGERS -5 @ KANSAS CITY CHIEFS

This was the first spread I saw on my screen and I was pretty stunned.  The Chargers are usually a 9-10 point favorite when facing the Chiefs.  I don’t know why the Chargers are getting such a favorable spread.  Last week’s loss against …