NFL Picks

So here it is, a run down of every game on tap against the spread.  Are you in a pick ’em pool or just wager a little bit on Sundays?  Then this is the post for you.  OK, so I gave you a preview of what I was thinking yesterday and my favorite picks going into today’s update are the Giants -9 over the Chiefs and Bengals -5.5 over the Browns.  Usually I want to stay away from betting against home underdogs, but I’ve done it twice against the Browns and it’s paid off.  If a team is crappy enough, home field isn’t going to save them.  Also see the Broncos demolition over the Raiders last week.  So lets get to it.

OAKLAND RAIDERS @ HOUSTON TEXANS -9

Which Texans team are we going to get?  You never know.  You could get the team that lights up the Titans or the team that falls to the Jaguars.  The Texans struggle against the run, so Run DMC (Darren McFadden for you lay people) may have a huge game.  I also think Nnamdi Awesome-ungha [sic], you know, the Raiders high-paid arguably top 3 or 5 CBs in the league may (MAY) keep Andre Johnson in check.  The Raiders are really, really bad though, and the Texans have an actual offense capable of scoring points — that’s important.  It may be close with the spread, but I’ll count on the Texans to deliver a 10-14 point win.  Nonetheless, a bad game to bet on.

Prediction: Texans 24 – Raiders 13

Free Pick: Texnas -9 (Confidence: 2/5)

TENNESSEE TITANS -3 @ JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS

I like the Titans here because I just don’t see them dropping to 0-4.  They’ve have 3 crushing defeats …

What’s up my peeps.  Before I get into every NFL game (if I’m not lazy enough to do it considering I have 2 great picks for you this week), I wanted to give you some initial thoughts at some spreads that jumped out at me.

I hope you got this week off to the right start with Brandon’s Louisiana Tech pick.  They rolled over Hawaii in the second half for the 27-6 win to cover the 4.5 points.  Nice pick B.

If you are new to THE PASS RUSH.  This is how this works, Vegas Martin gives you the run down on the NFL and Brandon Phillips fills you in on the college spreads since that’s what he does, he picks college winners.  We also have the site mobile enabled, so you can check our picks from your iPhone or Blackberry.  How amazing are we?  More amazing than DeSean Jackson this season if I might say so.

Disclaimer: If you take our picks just because we do, a crackhead may break into your home, smack you upside the head, and you may lose money.  Do your OWN DUE DILIGENCE.

On a lighter note, last week we found some solid winners with easy picks of the Saints over the Bills and Ravens over the Browns.  That’s what we’re looking for again.

Matchups that jump out to me are the Giants -9 over the Chiefs, Redskins -7 over the Bucs, Bengals -5.5 over the Browns, Bears -10 over the Lions, 49ers -9.5 over the Rams.

So this is how it works.  We think of the 5 worst teams in the NFL and start with those spreads.  Seems like the right strategy, right?  Why waste time putting money on a Chargers/Steelers, Packers/Vikings, or …

NFL WEEK 3 IN REVIEW:

What’s up my peeps.  The Saints, my pick of the week, cashed in for me.  Easy money in the bank, although I was a little taken back when they took a mere 10-7 lead into the half.  I also made a pretty penny on those Ravens over the Browns — that was just another easy game that was like “free money.”

I lost a minor amount on the Falcons.  I wanted to wait right before the game to see what the injury picture was holding.  I was hoping both Moss and Welker would be out, so I could jump on the Falcons, but when I heard Moss was playing, I still figured I would place a small bet on the Falcons since Wes Welker was still out.  I was playing the Wes Welker injury and thought the Pats would be flat without him, just like the Jets game, but they were able to muster enough offense to hold off the Falcons.

The Saints and Ravens has us well positioned going into Monday night.

CAROLINA PANTHERS @ DALLAS COWBOYS -8.5

Tonight’s Monday Night game is the Cowboys and Panthers.  The 1-1 Cowboys look to bounce back from the tough Sunday Night loss against the Giants while the Panthers are looking for their first win of the season after losses to the Eagles and Falcons.  I think taking the points +8.5 is the way to go.  Cowboys obviously win, but when you give a good team like the Panthers 8.5 points, you take them.

Dallas’s secondary was exposed by the Giants, who appeared to pass at will over the Cowboys.  The Giants’ Steve Smith is much like the Panthers’ Steve Smith and was able to get open …

I just wanted to update everyone on the injury front.  Playing the injuries is a great way to take advantage of some spreads.

First, both Randy Moss and Wes Welker are Questionable for Sunday’s game.  Questionable means that they have a 50/50 shot of playing.  If both players are out, jump on the Falcons spread which has moved to +4.5.  Pats struggle big time without Welker in the line up.  If BOTH Welker and Moss are out, their offense comes to a grinding halt and the Falcons should easily dominate them, and you have the advantage of 4.5 points on your side.

Next, I really, really, really like the Saints -6 over the Bills.  This Saints offense is the best offense in the history of ever.  Better than the Patriots of 2007, better than the Colts of 2004-2006, better than any team that I can remember.  The Bills aren’t going to be able to keep up with them offensively.  Even better is the fact that the Bills have their premiere CB Leodis McKelvin questionable for the game, CB Terrance McGee is banged up, and LB Pozlusny is out for the season.  Also keep in mind that Marshawn Lynch is still serving a suspension, so that hurts the Bills ability to eat clock with the power running game.  With 2 banged up corners against the best passing offense in the league, this is a sweet spot to take advantage of that matchup.  Look for the Saints to light up the scoreboard.

Favorite Picks This Week: Saints -6 and Falcons +4.5…

What’s up my peeps.  It’s week 3 in the NFL and I’m giving you my take on every game on tap.  I’ve rode the Vikings for 2 weeks for big wins over the Browns and Lions, but they’ll be facing a tough 49ers team that looks like they could be a playoff team in January.  Let’s see what else is out there.

Brandon also posted a pick for tonight’s Ole Miss @ South Carolina game.  Click the link to view his analysis.  He is playing the over and I think it is a great call.

Top 5 Spreads in Week 3: Saints -6, Ravens -13, Texans -3.5, Bears -2, Falcons +4

TENNESSEE TITANS @ NEW YORK JETS -3

The Jets are good, they are very good.  They’ve improved 10-fold on the defensive side since last year and 100% of the credit goes to Rex Ryan.  They beat two very good teams (Texans and Patriots).  The Titans are still outstanding too and Chris Johnson himself can win any game and will only require 3 lineman to get it done.  He is dangerous, so I never want to bet against the Titans.  The Titans pass D is weak for an odd reason.  Pittsburgh tore them up and then Andre Johnson tore them up.  I expect a tight game, so this is probably not your best game to bet on.  Jets likely win by less than a touchdown and more likely by just a field goal.

Prediction: Jets 20 – Titans 17

Free Pick: Too close to call (Push)

CELEVELAND BROWNS @ BALTIMORE RAVENS -13

I really like this game, but hate high spreads in the NFL, but this may be one high spread worth taking.  The Ravens D isn’t what it …

WEEK IN REVIEW:

It was a good week.  I had the Vikings ring the register, who I put the majority of my money on this week.  Unfortunately, Andre Johnson going off, which I had a feeling might happen, took some of that away.  I had more faith in the Titans D.

I then got added some more cash to my account with the Colts at -3 over Miami.  I knew it would be a tight game and I didn’t like the spread at -4.5 as you could tell, but when I saw it at -3, I jumped on it.  I was anticipating a Colts win by 3 or 4. I’d rather be on the side of Peyton Manning in this one and that was the right side to take at -3.  Tough loss for the Dolphins who had something ridiculous like 45 minutes of possession.

Before writing up my full analysis of EVERY GAME ON TOP, I wanted to throw out some college picks that gave me a chubby and see what Brandon thinks since he’s the college expert, not me.

COLLEGE LINES THAT CAUGHT MY ATTENTION (HOME TEAMS IN CAPS):

KANSAS -13.5 over South Mississippi — Heck, I would take -13.5 over Mississippi State, who the hell is South Mississippi?  Eh, South Miss is 3-0 with wins against Virginia and Central Florida.  Those programs are no joke.  Maybe this game has upset alert on it.

BYU -15 (Buy a point to -14) over Colorado St. — I’m feeling a rebound game for a team that likes to crush teams in their division, but Colorado St. is 3-0 with with wins over Nevada and Colorado.

TENNESSEE -21.5 (Buy a half-point to -21) over Ohio — If they can hang with …

With all the updates to the site, the NFL week 2 picks against the spread was pushed off the main page.  You can click the link to get an analysis on every game on tap.

My favorite games this week are: TITANS -6.5 over Texans, Vikings -10 over LIONS, and Steelers -3 over CHICAGO.  I would also give some consideration to the Redskins, who could easily blank the Rams again with their superb defense.

HOUSTON TEXANS @ TENNESSEE TITANS -6.5

UPDATE: It will be POURING in the Titans/Texans game and that will affect how this game plays out.  Expect more running and this game will be low scoring, which hurts the Titans chances of covering.  I still see a Titans cover in the area of a 17-9, 17-6, 20-10, 20-13 Titans win.  The Titans are the type of team built for playing in the elements, unlike the Texans.

I am pretty comfortable taking the Titans at home.  I would like them a lot more on a dry field though.  Their defense is superb, their running game is excellent, and Kerry Collins was looking like a legitimate fantasy quarterback last week against a tough Steelers defense.

The Titans have a ton of excellent TEs to work into the game with Bo Scaife (who is unfortunately doubtful this game due to a knee injury), Alge Crumpler, and Jarred Cook.  Justin Gage turned in an excellent performance last week and they have speedster Nate Washington, who they acquired from the Steelers, and rookie big-bodied WR Kenny Britt.  That’s all without mentioning the true star on this team: Chris Johnson.  Tennessee has the weapons to be a Super Bowl contender this season and I think they win big today at home.

88% of the …