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NFL Week 2 Predictions, Picks Against the Spread

Posted by in NFL Picks on September 17th, 2009 | Comment »

Last week was a solid week.  I only gave out 2 games with a 4/5 confidence rating last week, which were the Minnesota Vikings and the Atlanta Falcons and they both covered pretty comfortably.  There were some surprises last week.  The Jets looks legit.  The Raiders didn’t suck as bad as we thought they would.  All of the games were extremely close with the spread, which is exactly what it was designed for.  There aren’t too many easy winners.  I was feeling it with the Vikings though and that set me up for a nice week.  Lets see what is on tap this week.

OAKLAND RAIDERS +3 @ KANSAS CITY CHIEFS

Oh, so the Raiders don’t suck so bad after all.  They had a decent defense in decent offense.  They may even rank 16th in both categories this season.  The Chiefs put up 24 points on the Ravens, what?  7 of those came via a blocked punt in the end zone, so that really doesn’t count.  I think this game should be low scoring and back and forth with a few lead changes.  Odds are it comes down to a field goal, so I think you’re better suited taking the Raiders with the +3.  Under 38.5 looks interesting, but stands to be close to that number.

Prediction: Raiders 20 – Chiefs 17

Free Picks: Raiders +3 (Confidence: 2/5), Under 38.5 (Confidence: 2/5)

HOUSTON TEXANS @ TENNESSEE TITANS -6.5

Kerry Collins was pretty impressive last week against the Steelers on the road and the Titans ran the ball very well against a top 3 run defense.  Texans got pounded by the Jets ground game and passing game too.  Plus, the Titans have an extra 3 days rest — a huge advantage …

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Monday Night Picks: Bills vs. Patriots, Chargers vs. Raiders

Posted by in NFL Picks on September 14th, 2009 | Comment »

2/2 on Sunday Night has us rolling into Monday well positioned.  There are two games to choose.  Bills +11 @ Patriots and Chargers @ Raiders +10.  I hate double-digit spreads — they’ll always be close.  Both the Saints and Ravens covered their -13 spreads, but the Chiefs and Lions were the team in the money most of the game and both had a very good chance of covering the spreads if it wasn’t for a late TD score to give those who took the Saints and Ravens a sigh of relief.

My first thought was that I would rather give up the points with the Patriots at home rather than the Chargers on the road.  Home field advantage is huge on Monday night and betting against the Raiders when they’re given 10 points on Monday night in the black hole could be a mistake, although I do feel that the Chargers should dominate this game.  However, the Bills defense isn’t weak, and with CB issues for the Patriots, they may have a tough time with Evans and T.O.  I’m not huge on the Patriots -11.  I think the Patriots win by exactly 11 to be honest (27-16).  After rethinking this one, I think the Chargers have a better shot at covering 10 against the Raiders than the Patriots do against the Bills.

I then want to turn my attention to the over/under since yesterday’s call on the under 46.5 was spot on.  The over/under for NE/BUF is 47.5 and and SD/OAK is 43.

In the Patriots game, I’m forecasting 24-31 points from the Patriots with a max of 34 points being scored.  The Bills should score 13-16 with a max of 20.  The Patriots will come out firing passes all …

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1:00, Perfect

Posted by in NFL Picks on September 13th, 2009 | Comment »

We had 3/3 winning tickets in the 1:00 game.  My big game this week was the Vikings. I was nervous with everyone chanting “trap game,” but I knew the Vikings running game would dominate that game.  The Falcons were my other play and they won 19-7.  Lastly, I put a little something on my Eagles.  They say don’t put money on your own team, but I’m confident in the Eagles this season — they have a ton of offensive weapons and a great defense, which showed with DeSean Jackson’s punt return, Sheldon Brown had a huge INT, and Trent Cole forced a fumble which Abiamiri put in the endzone.  Each game was a pretty comfortable cover.

There are three 4:00 games and I’m really feeling the Cardinals.  They have a potent offense at home, an underrated defense, and should be jacked up starting the season with Super Bowl hopes at home.  They’re up against a 49ers team that is trying to find their identity.  The only real star on that 49ers team is Frank Gore.  The 49ers receiving skills are minimal and their defense is just middle of the pack.  I expect Arizona to come out firing with Fitzgerald and Boldin and they will get this game going on the right track.  I like that the line dropped from -6.5 to -5.5.  I don’t know what that is all about, but I’m going to jump on it.  I like this game, but don’t love it since a lot of people are taking the 49ers to cover, but I’m going with my gut on this one.  How can you bet against the Cardinals at home with that type of offense?

Good luck at 4:00.…

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NFL Pregame Sunday Pep Talk

Posted by in NFL Picks on September 13th, 2009 | Comment »

What’s up everyone.  We kick off the first Sunday of the NFL this season.  I tend to advise people to not wager too much on the first 3 weeks of football since you never know what’s going to happen.  There will definitely be a few surprises.

It was already crazy week in college football.  I capitalized on Brandon’s picks of Wake Forest and Auburn, but took what I would consider a bad beat on the Michigan game, and ended up short with USC.  ND should have not only won that game, but should have covered, and did cover with 2 minutes left.  Bad penalties, giving up a kickoff return, and a missed FG cost them that one.  In the OSU game, the OSU front 7 stepped up for them and shut down USC’s run.  OSU’s front 7 was their Achilles heel in the Navy game.  USC didn’t really use Joe McKnight until the 2nd half either.  USC also was struggling with starting field position the entire game since they had to start several drives within their own 10 yard line.  That forced them into a lot of punting situations.  If they got to start more drives between the 20-40, I have a feeling they would have put a lot more points on the board.

Today in the NFL, there aren’t really any games that I love.  I do like the Minnesota Vikings over the Browns, but this has trap game written all over it.  It’s like the sports books are begging you to take the Vikings and that’s who the public is riding hard.  A lot of people think the Browns will be returning to their 2007 form when they were 10-6.  I am not one of those people.  They …

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NFL Week 1 Predictions, Picks Against the Spread

Posted by in NFL Picks on September 9th, 2009 | Comment »

MIAMI DOLPHINS @ ATLANTA FALCONS -4.5

Both teams were surprisingly strong last season.  Miami had some struggles on the road.  Falcons have way more offense than Miami.  Both defenses are relatively the same.  Go with the stronger offense at home.  You have to go with the Falcons.

Prediction: Falcons 24 – Dolphins 16

Free Pick: Falcons -4.5 (Confidence: 3/5)

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS @ BALTIMORE RAVENS -13

Matt Cassell is doubtful Sunday, which explains the high spread.  The Chiefs could be absolutely dominated by the Ravens defense, but I don’t want to give up 13 to take the Ravens who may just put up 21-24 points and call it a day.  This is a great game to put in a 7-point teaser.

Prediction: Ravens 27 – Chiefs 13

Free Pick: Ravens -13 (Confidence: 2/5)

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES @ CAROLINA PANTHERS

This game is a pick ’em and I’m an Eagles fan, so I’ll have to pass on this game.  I’m obviously optimistic this Sunday, but I hate having to open on the road.

DENVER BRONCOS @ CINCINNATI BENGALS -4

These aren’t your 2008 Bengals.  Carson Palmer is looking good and Chad Ochocinco may actually try and play this season.  The Broncos defense is pretty horrible, no more Jay Cutler, and Brandon Marshall is suspended indefinitely.  I like the Bengals at home and so does 96% of the betting public.

Prediction: Bengals 23 – Broncos 13

Free Pick: Bengals -4 (Confidence: 3/5)

MINNESOTA VIKINGS -3.5 @ CLEVELAND BROWNS

The spread on this game is surprisingly low it made me think whether this is a “trap game.”  I would ordinarily suggest sticking to home teams in week 1, but the Browns should be picking in the top 4 of the draft next season — …

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Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Tennessee Titans Pick Against the Spread

Posted by in NFL Picks on September 8th, 2009 | Comment »

TENNESSEE TITANS @ PITTSBURGH STEELERS -6

Week 1 of the NFL season kicks off Thursday night with the Super Bowl champion Steelers facing the Tennessee Titans.  76% of the bets on the spread in this one are being placed on the Steelers.  80% of the money is taking the over and that might also be a good play since it’s set at mere 35 points.  One score past a 20-14 game and it’s in the money, but with these defenses, I’m not touching the over.

I think taking the Super Bowl defending Steelers at home is clearly the play to make.  Pittsburgh is 13-3 at home in the last 2 years.  Pittsburgh is also 7-2 against-the-spread (ATS) in their last 9 games.  Tennesee is 3-5-1 ATS in their last 9 games.  When these teams faced eachother in week 16 last year, Tennessee came out on top, 31-14.  Pittsburgh pretty much has the same squad from last season with the exception of Nate Washington, who is now with the Titans.  The Titans biggest loss is Albert Haynesworth.

I’m anticipating a pretty tight game from two very good defenses.  With the loss of Haynesworth, I expect the Steelers to commit to the run, try and control a clock, and grind this one out with a close win.  With as strong Steelers defense, and more importantly, a tough run defense, I expect that Titans running game to stay in check. I’m taking the Steelers to cover, but I’m not going to bet too much on it since I don’t see the Steelers running up the score much on a tough defense and the bet probably won’t be in the money until the 4th quarter.  Plus, one missed tackle on Chris Johnson and he …

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Super Bowl XLIII Pick Against the Spread

Posted by in NFL Picks on January 30th, 2009 | Comment »

PITTSBURGH STEELERS -7 VS. ARIZONA CARDINALS

I’m pretty down since my Eagles lost to the Cardinals in the NFC Championship, so my interest in the Super Bowl has declined immensely.  By no means did the Eagles choke.  Unfortunately they came out flat in the first half, but they got it together in the second half.  If they would have played both halves the way they played the second half, they could be playing in the big game in Tampa.  There’s still a lack of respect for the Cardinals due to their 9-7 regular season record.  Do not underestimate them.  Larry Fitzgerald is the most dangerous player in this game.  He has the ability to win games himself.  3 TDs last week against the Eagles.  He is virtually unstoppable as long as the offensive line can give Warner enough time.

Last Super Bowl, I said take the points with the Giants and this year I think taking the points may be the way to go.  I’m thinking that Pittsburgh will more than likely win this game, but that the Cardinals will more than likely cover. I’m pulling for the Cardinals since I hate Pittsburgh, so that’s influencing my pick.  I hate the Steelers, so yeah, there’s some bias here.  The Steelers should win this one by 3-4 points, but I wouldn’t be surprised one bit by a Cardinals victory.  If they do, look for one man to dominate: Larry Fitzgerald.

Also keep in mind that Big Ben is playing banged up, but that shouldn’t affect his game.

Prediction: Cardinals 27 – Steelers 24

Disclaimer: This pick is 100% bias.…

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