NFL Picks

It’s better late than never.

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES -3.5 @ ARIZONA CARDINALS

I’m an Eagles fan, so yes, I’m 100% confident that my team will beat the Cardinals and move on to the Super Bowl.  McNabb is playing at the highest level he has played in years.  Their defense is absolutely ridiculous.  We will just have to double team Larry Fitzgerald all game.  Don’t count on the Cardinals running game having any success against the tough Eagles run D.  Eagles win, 27-20.

BALTIMORE RAVENS @ PITTSBURGH STEELERS-6

The #1 defense vs. the #2 defense.  Expect this one to be a tight defensive battle like the Ravens/Titans game.  I said before the playoffs that I think the Ravens will be the team to go onto the Super Bowl.  Their defense is better than Pittsburghs by a hair.  I like the prospect of Flacco going deep to Mark Clayton at some point in this game.  I also like the under 34.  This shouldn’t go over a 20-14 game.  Pittsburgh may move the ball well, but I see them often having to settle for field goals.  If the Steelers do win this game, it should be by 3-6 points.  I like the Ravens +6 and think they will win outright.  Ravens win, 13-9.…

Hey guys.  I just got back from Vegas and cashed in on the Arizona/Atlanta over, Eagles, and Ravens.  I dropped a small amount on the Colts though.  Speaking of that game, the NFL better change the overtime rules this offseason.  It’s completely bogus to determine a football game by a coin flip.  You knew whoever was getting the ball first in overtime was going to win the game.  Let’s see what’s on tap this weekend.

BALTIMORE RAVENS @ TENNESSEE TITANS -3

With two of the best defense in the league, maybe the under 34.5 is the play to make.  However, a few Ed Reed INT’s can always get the game to hit the over.  I love the Ravens this post-season.  I think they have an excellent shot to play in the Super Bowl.  The Titans are at home where they just beet Pittsburgh in convincing fashion.  This will be a tight one.  Whoever wins the turnover and sack battle wins this game and both teams are great at forcing turnovers and getting sacks.  I’m pulling for the Ravens and I think this game pushes.  Either way, it should be tight.  With the home field, I’ll have to say the Titans win by a field goal.  Titans win, 16-13.

ARIZONA CARDINALS @ CAROLINA PANTHERS -10

Before seeing the spread, the Panthers over the Cardinals was the best play to make.  I would surely recommend taking the Panthers at -6.5, but 10 points is a lot to cover in a playoff game.  The Cardinals are terrible on the road, where they are 3-5.  They give up an average of 30 PPG on the road.  The Panthers, on the other hand, are a perfect 8-0 at home.  Carolina averages 29 PPG at home …

Playoff football is here.  I see all the road teams having the upper hand, but you always have to be cautious when picking road teams.  However, Wild Card teams in recent years have rolled on.

ATLANTA FALCONS -2.5 @ ARIZONA CARDINALS

The Cardinals are not playoff worthy, the Falcons are.  82% of the betting public is taking the Falcons.  However, the Cardinals are a dangerous team at home.  368 yards of offense per game and 30.7 PPG when they’re at home.  That defense of the Cardinals can be a liability for them though.  I think the Falcons win this one in a tight, high-scoring game.  I say Falcons win 31-27.  The over 51 may be the play to make in this one.

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS @ SAN DIEGO CHARGERS

This one is a pick ’em.  8/10 experts at Covers.com like the Colts and so do I.  How can you not?  They’ve won 9 in a row!  Manning has been unstoppable.  San Diego does have an impressive 30.5 PPG average and 367 yards per game at home though.  I think this will be another tight one: Colts win 27-24.

BALTIMORE RAVENS -3.5 @ MIAMI DOLPHINS

The 1-15 Dolphins of last year are in the playoffs.  That’s the NFL for you.  They’ve won 9 of their last 10!  The Ravens are 8-2 in their last 10.  With the Ravens allowing only 80 rushing yards per game, I think the Dolphins offense will struggle and the Ravens offense should roll over the Dolphins D.  The Ravens put up 33 on Dallas 2 weeks ago.  I expect the Ravens to cover comfortably.  Ravens win 27-13.

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES -3 @ MINNESOTA VIKINGS

E-A-G-L-E-S, EAGLES!!! I’m an Eagles fan, so I obviously expect them to win this …

After taking a few hits week 15, the DAL/NYG under on Monday Night and Indianapolis on Thursday Night got things going back in the right direction.  I took the Colts moneyline to be safe, and for those who laid the points, you can thank CB #31 for the cover due to a pick 6.  The game was absolutely crazy, check out the highlights.  The game had you sweating once the Jaguars took the 14-0 lead, but Manning was able to pull through.

On to the NFL Week 16 games…

BALTIMORE RAVENS @ DALLAS COWBOYS -4

I don’t see how you can bet against the Ravens even though I’ll pick the Cowboys to cover since it’s in Dallas.  I’m hoping for a Ravens W so the Eagles can jump the Cowboys in the standings.  If Romo throws a few picks, which he’s always capable of against a defense like the Ravens, which he did against the Steelers, the Ravens have a shot at taking this one.

PITTSBURGH STEELERS -2 @ TENNESSEE TITANS

I like the Steelers in this one and I think they are one of the top teams to take this week, especially with the low spread.  Their defense should hold the Titans to very few points.  Although Tennessee is 12-2, they were pretty unimpressive against the Texans last week.  Unless their running game gets going, they aren’t a very good team.  With the Steelers tough run D, I expect the Titans offense to struggle.  The Steelers have allowed only 10.4 PPG in their last 5 games.  The Titans have lost their top defensive player DT Albert Haynesworth and DE Kyle Vanden Bosch, another key player, is day-to-day.  Steelers win this one 20-13.

MIAMI DOLPHINS -3.5 @ KANSAS CITY …

Tonight the NFL Network will feature the Indianapolis Colts @ Jacksonville Jaguars.  The Colts are 6-point favorites after the line opened Colts -6.5.  I don’t know why the line would move down since 80% of the money is riding on the Colts.  I like the Colts tonight.  The Colts have won 7-straight, but are only 3-3-1 ATS in that time.  The Jaguars managed to win at home last week against the Packers thanks to a breakout game from Dennis Northcut, but I’m still extremely concerned with their general inability to move the football.

Under normal circumstances, I tend to avoid IND/JAC games because they’re usually close, but this is an exception tonight due to Jacksonville’s struggles.  The Jags are 3-7 ATS in their last 10.  The stats of these teams indicate that this will be a close game though.  The offensive and defensive numbers for these teams are so close that you would think that this one could easily end in a 23-30 game.

Before taking the Colts you always have to look at the injury list, which doesn’t look good and could explain why the line moved down.  Marvin Harrison is out, LB Gary Brackett is out, Bob Sanders is questionable, Joseph Addai is questionable, and there are a handful of players that are banged up that are listed as probable (Ugoh, Saturday, Clark, Bethea).

After taking all of that into consideration, I really like the Colts to win straight up, but still a little unsure on whether they can cover 6.  A win by the Colts will clinch a playoff, so I’ll put my faith in Manning.  The Colts injuries concern me, but the Jaguars offense has been struggling big time.

I’m debating whether to take the Colts …

I really like the Packers -2.5 over the Jaguars this week, but they’ve been a poor team to bet on lately, but so have the Jags.  The Jags will be without their best corner and the Packers have a pretty good WR in Greg Jennings, who should explode this game (count on 100+ yards from Jennings).  I’m taking this one just because the Jaguars offense is basically non-existent.  I think this is the most one-sided game this week.  The Jags are 1-5 at home, so that home-field advantage isn’t really working for them.

The next game that I have on tap is the Titans -3 over Texans.  Brandon likes the Texans +3 and they have been playing very well the last 2 weeks and they’ll be at home. The Titans already have the division locked up, so they may slack this game, but they’re still fighting for home-field advantage throughout the playoffs and Jeff Fisher knows just how important it is to lock that up and you’re facing the Texans, who have a poor run defense and give up a lot of points.  I’ll keep riding the Titans, but the -3 line does show you the confidence the bookies have in the Texans in this one.  I’ll have it on upset alert, but the Titans D will keep that high-scoring Texans offense in check.

My next play is the Patriots -6.5 over the Raiders.  The Raiders are garbage:  3-10,  1-5 at home, averaging 13.8 PPG.  I also think Randy Moss will show up big against his former team.  I always love when big-time players are playing their former team.  This one has 13/14 experts at covers.com picking the Pats, but they were all over Patriots -4.5 over the Seahawks last …

I just took a quick look at the spreads this week in the NFL.  So far I like the Packers -1.5 over the Jaguars.  The Packers have been dissappointing lately, but they’re not a bad team.  They’re just barely getting beat.  The Jags have been great to bet against (3-10 ATS).  They’re also a dismal 1-5 at home.  Green Bay averages 8 more points per game than the Jaguars.  GB is 7-2 ATS against a team with a losing record in their last 9.   The Jags are 1-12 ATS in their last 13 on grass.  Although Green Bay has lost and hasn’t covered in their last 3, the Jaguars have lost and haven’t covered in their last 4.  The Jags will be without there best corner, so count on Greg Jennings to have a field day.  The loss of LB Nick Barnett has hurt that Packers D, but the Jags haven’t proven anything offensively other than the fact that that they’ll be lucky to score more than 14 points.  With CB Mathis out for the Jags, I really like the Packers in this one, especially since it’s basically a pick ’em at -1.5.

Pittsburgh and the Ravens clash in Baltimore.  The over/under is 34.5.  The Ravens have allowed 6.67 PPG in their last 3.  Pittburgh has allowed 11 PPG in their last 4.  This one should be a 13-10 game barring any INTs returned for TDs.  This one shouldn’t break 20-14, so I like the under.  However, the last time these teams played, everyone was all over the under, but the over actually hit.  That’s because Flacco fumbled, which led to a TD.  However, Flacco has learned quickly as a rookie and is doing a much better job at protecting …