NFL Picks

After all was said and done, I came out dead even this week.  That’s OK though since the Ravens and Rutgers built up the bank roll last week.  Most of my picks were right on the money, but I took the wrong games.  My big game (the Pats) pushed, I lost on the Jets, but won on the Bears. 1-1-1, I’ll take it.  I put small bets on the Steelers, Ravens, and Vikings, so I won 2/3 there.  Let’s look at tonight’s game.

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS @ CAROLINA PANTHERS -3

Tonight is a great NFL game for NFC South supremacy.  Both teams are 9-3.  The Panthers are a perfect 6-0 at home.  The Bucs are 3-3 on the road.  The Bucs stomped all over the Panthers in Tampa Bay earlier this season winning by a score of 27-3.  I can’t really make sense of this one.  Both teams are known for their tight defenses.  Tampa allows 20 PPG on the road while the Panthers allow 17 PPG at home.  Both offenses score an average of 23 for their respective home/away stats.  What’s alarming about the Panthers is their 33 PPG allowed in their last 3 and they’re 1-2 ATS in their last 3 (GB, ATL, DET).  Neither team has a clear edge, but the Panthers do have the home-field advantage on Monday Night.

I still don’t know what to do with this one.  I may do another one of my teasers.  With the solid defenses of each team, each team should be limited to around 17-23 points.  The over/under is 39.  You can tease this up to 46 to take the under or tease it down to 32 and take the over.  Both teams are 5-7 against the over.  You …

WEEK 14 BETTING REACTION:

The Bears cashed in 3 units on the 1:00 game.  I had a 6-team parlay that the Packers busted when they lost on a last second field goal at home to the Texans.  I hit the Titans, Bears, and Saints/Falcons over, and then have Jets -4 and Patriots -4.5 coming up, so we’ll see how those go.  I decided to make a last second bet on the Vikings -10.  They won by only 4.  I should have opted for the Titans or Colts, but didn’t like the 14 or 13.5 spreads.  I’m still in the black and have some big 4:00 games coming up.

To make up for the Vikings pick, I put 2 units on the Steelers -4.  I did this right after I heard that Marion Barber was out for the Cowboys.  It’s in Pittsburgh, it’s cold, and the Cowboys don’t really have anything in their backfield, so they’ll struggle in Pittsburgh in the cold.  In fact, Romo started the game off by throwing a pick to Polamalu.  It should be a close game, but I’ll take the Steelers at home in the cold.  Dallas is up 13-6, but Steelers are threatening with 3:17 left.  Pittsburgh ties it up, but the chances of covering 4 are slim.  Scratch that, Romo throws a pick 6!  Thank you Romo for stepping up when I need you too.  Pittsburgh wins this one 20-13.

My big game of the week (Patriots -3) pushed.  I’m certainly glad I took the line at -3.  I knew I was onto something with the Bears and Titans.  I played the Jets, which was the wrong game to play.  I thought they would return to their winning ways, but they’ve now suffered two …

College football was great this week as I went 9-4 with the streak.

Let’s carry that streak through to Sunday.

1. Philadelphia at NY Giants (-6.5): how can you go against a team playing this well? I can’t.

2. Minnesota at Detroit over 45.5

3. Kansas City (+9) at Denver

4. Miami at Buffalo under 42

Good Luck!…

My impressions from the early week (Jets and Patriots) are the top 2 picks on the Covers.com consensus, each getting at least 80% of the action. I also like the Bears and Titans.

My plays for this week are 9 units on Patriots -3 over Seahawks (to win 6 units, I moved the spread from -4.5 to -3 to make it safer), 4 units on Jets -4 over 49ers, 3 units on Bears -6.5 over Jaguars, and 2 units on the Vikings -10 over the Lions.

Note: The Patriots line moved from -4.5 to -7.  That’s a ridiculous move.  The betting public loves the Pats and I love that I have them locked in at only -3.

I was thinking of going with a 6-team teaser, but I’ll test my chances with this 6-team parlay: Bears -6.5, Falcons/Saints over 51.5, Jets -4, Patriots -4.5, Titans -14, and Packers -5.5. The parlay pays 50:1. I know it’s a longshot (clearly reflected by the odds), but it’s a solid card on paper.

As always, the NFL has been crazy. Use your own judgment. Good luck this week.

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS -4.5 @ SEATTLE SEAHAWKS

11/11 experts and 84% of the consensus at covers.com likes the Pats and so do I. The Pats are scoring and the Seahakws are allowing 24 PPG for their respective home/away stats. New England is allowing 21 on the road and the Seahawks are scoring 21 at home. Let’s see if the Patriots win this one 24-21. The Seahawks have lost 5 straight, Hasselbeck is completing only 52% of his passes, and he has a 2:1 INT/TD ratio. I have to trust ’em at covers.com, especially after the Seahawks embarrassment against the Cowboys last week. The …

I’m not hugely in favor of either team in this game. The Texans are favored by 3 at home and the over/under is 48. The experts at Covers.com are split down the middle on this one and 75% favor the under. I actually like the over seeing as how the last game between these two teams was a Jacksonville win 30-27 in Jacksonville. Their games in 2007 were also high scoring, averaging 62 points in those two last year. Houston’s last 5 games hit the over and 3/4 of the Jaguars last 4 games have hit the over. I think the over is the play tonight.

As far as which team comes out on top, neither team may be worth betting on as they’re both 4-7 and hungry for a win. You can count on Houston giving up points. Houston is 29th in points allowed per game, giving up nearly 27 per game. They’re also ranked 23rd against the run, which is where Jacksonville thrives. Jacksonville is pretty average on both sides of the ball and Houston can score in bunches as well.

I expect a tight, entertaining game throughout. I say that both teams break 24, so I like the over. Jacksonville CB Mathis is questionable for the Jags, so that Houston passing game will have a lot of success if he’s out. Not too many significant injuries on Houston’s front. This one is still a toss up to me.

I may go with a teaser like Jacksonville +10, over 41. I may also parlay the over 48 with either team, I can’t decide who I like more in this one. Both teams have lost their last 3 of 4, so I’m not confident in either one.

I think …

BETTING REACTION:

The individual games that I played (Baltimore, Atlanta, and Indianapolis) went well. I’ll take 2/3 and especially the big money game, the Ravens. The Colts won, but didn’t cover by 1. 1 point away from the 3-for-3 sweep. The Bills and Jets busted up the teaser. The Bills and Jets surprisingly let their home fans down. I’m surprised the Bills lost to a 3-8 team, but Coach Singleterry has that squad more focused each week. They’re not as bad as their record indicates. The 3-team teaser wouldn’t have mattered because the Jets got crushed by the Broncos. I was at looking what to do with my last 3 units and I figured the Ravens were a lock, and I wanted to take two home teams to spread the risk around. I knew I should have put that on the Giants instead! For the day: plus 9 units, minus 7 units, so it’s been a positive day. I knew I found a good spread with the Ravens. Added 4 more units on the Vikings parlay. Moved up 6 units Sunday and 5 units Thanksgiving. Cha-Ching!

TODAY’S BOTTOM LINE: AWAY TEAMS ARE 10-1 TODAY!

To use the words of Dick Vermeil, “that’s something you don’t see every day.”

BEARS @ VIKINGS PICK:

The Vikings line moved from Vikings -3.5 to -4.5, which means the public is betting hard on the Vikings. The Vikings have been ridiculous lately, but the Bears aren’t too shabby. I’m was going to go 2-unit teaser: Vikings +2.5, over 35, but there’s no sense in taking 2.5 points. A 3 unit bet only pays 2.5. I like the Vikings moneyline and over 42 parlay. The Covers.com expert picks heavily favor the over 42 and Vikings covering …

BALTIMORE RAVENS -7 @ CINCINNATI BENGALS (PERSONAL FAVORITE)

The Ravens defense should make the Bengals look like a high school team. I expect a minimum of 3 turnovers to be forced by that Ravens defense. The Bengals injury list is about a mile long and includes T.J. Houshmandzadeh (Probable), S Chinedum Ndukwe (Doubtful), DE Antwan Odom (Doubtful), Chad Johnson (Probable), Carson Palmer (Out Indefinitely). However, the Ravens injury list is pretty long too and unfortunately includes Chris McAllister (IR), Sammarri Rolle (Questionable), Le’Ron McClain (Probable), and Derrick Mason (Probable).

I say that the Ravens defense dominates, holds the Bengals to under 6 and the Ravens coast to about 24 points (Bengals give up an average of 25 PPG) to cover in comfortable fashion. Out of all the games I previewed so far, this is the one I love most since it’s the most one-sided. The Bengals have the league’s worst offense against a tough Ravens D. The Bengals should not get more than 13 points and the Ravens should be due for at least 20 seeing as the Bengals give up an average of 25. I’m putting 6 units on the Ravens.

* I may just be in love with this game because my logic is saying if the Eagles tie the Bengals and the Ravens kills the Eagles, the Ravens must kill the Bengals.

DENVER BRONCOS @ NEW YORK JETS -8

This is a bad spread to taker regardless of which team you take. I say Jets win by 7-10. I like the Jets offense to score in bunches, but the Broncos can keep pace, but the Jets defense is tough. I’m leaning more towards a Jets cover and I do see them dominating this game, but the 8 …