NFL Picks

Happy Thanksgiving everyone. 3 football games today. None are too intriguing, but let’s see if any games are worth betting on.

TENNESSEE TITANS -11.5 @ DETROIT LIONS

Merell Hodge predicted 31-3 as the final score in this one. The Lions went blow for blow with the Panthers and followed that up by blowing a 17-0 lead to the Bucs, losing 38-20. Assuming Calvin Johnson can pull 2 TDs out of his bag of tricks, the Titans will need more than 24 to cover. The Lions are terrible against the run (ranked 32nd) and that’s what the Titans do best (ranked 9th). I like the Titans to win big. I bought the line to Titans -10 just so they don’t need that extra score. Jeff Fisher will get his team focused after that demoralizing loss to the Jets and I expect the Titans to come out motivated to kick some ass.

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS @ DALLAS COWBOYS -12

The Cowboys offense is back. Terrell Owens has been unleashed. I think the Cowboys win by 2 TDs. The Cowboys should be good for at least 28 points and their defense has been stingy, they should hold the Seahawks to under 14.

ARIZONA CARDINALS @ PHILADELPHIA EAGLES -3

After the Eagles debacles the last two weeks, I can’t recommend taking the Eagles even as an Eagles fan. The Eagles are dead to me. The defense is there, but they have no running game, the offensive line is playing poorly, and they’re forced to throw 80% of the time, which has resulted in tons of turnovers. Hopefully I can witness an Eagles win for the first time in 4 weeks, but the Cardinals make me nervous.…

Monday Night Football finally has a good matchup for the first time in about 3-4 weeks. I already placed a nice parlay of Colts and Packers, which pays 4:1 and the Colts already delivered the big win last night against the Chargers. If the Pack can win tonight, it will be another solid week for me. The line opened at Packers +2.5, but moved to a pick ’em game, which indicates that the betting public is riding the Packers tonight. Good news for the Packers: Reggie Bush will be out tonight. Bad news for the Packers: The Saints will be jacked up to return home for the first time in 5 weeks.

Despite the Packers being on the road, I like them to win this one, in what should be a tight game that sees a lot of points. Both offenses can score with the best of them, but the Packers defense is way ahead of the Saints defense. With that defensive edge, I expect the Packers to come out with a win in the Super Dome. Both teams average 27 points of offense per game, but the Saints are allowing 4 more points per game. Both teams are 5-5, but the Packers have been better against the spread, going 7-3 compared to the Saints 5-4.

Worried about that Saints passing attack? Green Bay is ranked 3rd against the pass, allowing just 176 yards per game.

I already have 5 units riding on the Packers on a 1-unit bet (2-team parlay with the Colts), but I may put another 2 units on them. I like the Packers tonight!

Reaction: Damn! 6/8 of ESPN’s announcers liked the Packers. It was a hell of a first half and it looked like a …

CINCINNATI BENGALS @ PITTSBURGH STEELERS -11

I like the Steelers to cover, but the field conditions may lend itself to a low-scoring game, which would then favor the +11. I wouldn’t bet on this one until you know how Pittsburgh field will be. It’s notorious for getting bad. The Bengals and Eagles went 13-13 after 75 minutes. I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Steelers win in a 23-13 game. The Bengals offense is really bad and I wouldn’t be surprised if the Steelers shut them out.

HOUSTON TEXANS @ CLEVELAND BROWNS -3

I’ll go with the Browns at home. Quinn is looking good and Texans just can’t seem to win anything.  Update: Quinn messed up a finger, check up on that.

BUFFALO BILLS -3 @ KANSAS CITY CHIEFS

I like the Chiefs in what should be an ugly game. I’m definitely not counting on the Bills (1-5 in their last 6) to win this one on the road.

NEW YORK JETS @ TENNESSEE TITANS -5

The Jets have a great opportunity to hand the Titans their first loss, but I don’t see it happening in Tennessee. As Brandon says, never bet against a streak and I say that the Titans still have a goose-egg in the loss column and win by a TD or two. Titans 24-14.

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS @ MIAMI DOLPHINS -1.5

The Patriots have been able to win games, but the Dolphins have been winning game. They’ve won four in a row and I like them at home. This is a great spot to take the Dolphins as you don’t even have to lay down a touchdown. I still always am hesitant when I say bet the Dolphins though. Are they due for a let down? …

Well, the last two weeks I’ve remained dead even. This past week I capitalized off the Titans, Saints, and Cardinals, but lost on the Panthers and Eagles.

At first glance, I didn’t like the spread on tonight’s game (Bills -5). I then looked at the over/under, which was set at 40. That was rather curious. My first impression was that the Browns will give up a lot of points, but will also score a lot of points, but that of course is on a dry field in good condition. The over/under clearly reflects the forecast tonight: snow.

If you remember the last time the Browns played Cleveland, the game ended 8-0. Talk about ugly. That was in blizzard-like conditions though. Tonight’s forecast is in the low 20’s with scattered snow showers and a chance of snow at 30%. The consensus seems to be that the snow won’t pick up until midnight.

I don’t think the weather will be all that bad. The Bills will be without their top DE Aaron Schobel and Browns run-stuffing DT Shaun Rodgers is probable (playing with a banged up knee). With the Browns defense being a huge liability, and Brady Quinn looking solid with an offense that, at times, can really move the football, I like the over. I am a bit concerned about the Bills offensive woes lately, as they’ve been held to under 17 points in their last three games (MIA, NE, and NYJ). Their last 4 games are 0-3-1 against the over. Lee Evans will need to step up this game for the over to hit. Beast Mode should have a big game against the 27th ranked rush defense of the Browns though.

The over is a bit risky due to the …

NEW YORK JETS @ NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS -3.5

I don’t see the Pats scoring much on a pretty good Jets defense. I would take the points. 3.5 is pretty favorable for this game.

DENVER BRONCOS @ ATLANTA FALCONS -6

The Falcons have been on a tear. They have both the passing and running game running on all cylinders and beat the Saints last week 34-20. There defense is pretty good to boot. You can count on the Denver defense giving up a ton of points, but their offense should be able to score points too. The over/under is 51.5 and that’s right on point. This one should see lots of points by both teams, but with the defensive edge going to the Falcons at home, I think they’ll cover.

OAKLAND RAIDERS @ MIAMI DOLPHINS -10.5

Last week the Dolphins came out as 9 point favorites and couldn’t cover against the Seahawks. There’s no way I’m laying down 10.5 on the Dolphins and there’s no way I’m taking the Raiders either. Pass on this one.

BALTIMORE RAVENS @ NEW YORK GIANTS -6.5

With the exception of the Browns game, the Giants have been unstoppable. They clearly have the best offensive line in football. The Ravens are still without their top corner Chris McAllister, so that Giants passing game will get the Giants through this game even if the Ravens are able to stop the run. With McAllister out, the Ravens pass D has slid from #1 to #9. This one could be a close one, so I’m not crazy about the spread. The Ravens running game is the key to that offense and the Giants are averaging less than 90 yards allowed per game on the ground.

HOUSTON TEXANS @ INDIANAPOLIS …

Sorry for missing the NFL picks last week. I was crazy busy, but I’m back this week for a quick run-down of each game.

DENVER BRONCOS @ CLEVELAND BROWNS -3

Two games into the season and the Broncos looked like the most explosive offense in the NFL. Now, they look like they’re terrible. After suffering losses to the Patriots, Jaguars, and Dolphins, they go on the road and I wouldn’t be confident in them. Brady Quinn got the nod as the Browns QB. Even though they got killed by Ravens last week, I like the Browns at home. They did beat the Giants at home.

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS -6.5 @ DETROITS LIONS

I think it’s always a good idea to bet against the Lions. For a second, I thought the Lions were almost about to get their first win of the season last week against Chicago, but no dice. The Jaguars haven’t done too much to impress me, but they should roll over the Lions. They lost to a terrible Bengals team last week, but they have the Lions dude. You also have to think that the Lions are finally due for one at home. Can they really go 0-16? Well, maybe.

TENNESSEE TITANS -3 @ CHICAGO BEARS

I thought the Titans would be heavy favorites. Especially that Rex Grossmen will probably remain the Bears QB with Orton injured. You kind of have to sense a trap game for the Titans, but like the Ravens game they played on the road, this should be a low scoring defensive tussle, and I see them coming out on top in the end. I think the Titans are a very good play. I would pay any amount of money to have Jeff Fisher coach …

My colleague, Brandon Phillips, loves the Colts to win tonight. Although the Colts have a chance to win any game with Peyton Manning, I don’t see the Colts winning the game tonight. They are certainly capable of winning, but you cannot ignore what the Titans have been able to do their first 6 games of the season. Rarely would I suggest betting against a home team on Monday night. The home team simply has a huge advantage in prime-time games. See the Patriots last week, the Browns the week before that over the Giants. Sure, the Vikings were able to escape out of New Orleans with a W, but that was a very odd game to say the least.

The Titans defensive stats alone are enough to avoid taking the Colts tonight. 1st in points per game allowed, 3rd in yards per game allowed, 8th in sacks, 3rd in interceptions, 9th in forced fumbles. Then you have the Colts 29th ranked running defense against the 3rd ranked rushing attack. I expect a monster day from Chris Johnson. He simply hasn’t been able to be stopped.

The bottom line: the Titans have a solid defense at home with a strong rushing attack against a team that’s struggled against the run.

You can’t compare the Titans to the Ravens to argue the Colts should win this game. First, the Colts were at home that game. Second, Joe Flacco was careless with the ball and threw 3 INTs. Third, the Ravens secondary was hammered with injuries and Manning exposed their backup CBs all game long.

In all honesty, I would not bet on tonight’s game. I’m going to say the Titans win in a close one, but as we all know, what …